AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Georgia: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 17-10
2. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 37-9
3. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 18-17
4. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 23-6
5. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-18
6. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton 30-2
7. Nebraska: 10-3-0 -- W, Sun, 31-17
8. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-19
9. Notre Dame: 9-2-1 -- L, Sugar, 10-17
10. North Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 16-7
Note: BYU went 12-1 with a 51% SOS rating, their only loss an inexcusable, season-opening defeat to 4-7 New Mexico on the road, 25-21. They were THATclose to jumping on to the national scene a bit earlier than 1984. And hey! Bo finally won the Rose Bowl!
So, anyway, it's Herschel Time for the McMNC. Or is it?! This is really only about Georgia, Pitt and North Carolina. And we should start with Georgia just to see what is actually possible.
The Bulldogs went 6-0 in the SEC and didn't have to face Alabama (the Tide went 6-1 in SEC games, thereby once again showing the Southeastern Conference to be totally idiotic with its uneven schedules). Overall, their SOS rating was a laughable 41%. They beat ONE AP-ranked team all season, and that was the Sugar Bowl win over Notre Dame. In their defense, they did also beat UPI #19 Florida (8-4) by five points at home. But overall, that is one weak schedule. Sure, it was dragged down by 1-10 TCU, 1-9-1 Georgia Tech and 2-9 Vanderbilt, but only one win over an AP-ranked team all season? The Bulldogs did beat unranked 6-5 Clemson at home by four points and unranked 8-4 South Carolina by three points at home. And that's it for winning teams. So in 12 games, they played four winning teams total -- winning NONE of those games by double-digit margins. They also only played THREE road games the entire season, not including the Sugar Bowl. This is one of the more ridiculous schedules ever in college football history; if the Bulldogs didn't go 12-0, they should have been banished from Division 1-A competition.
So the door is definitely open for Pitt and UNC.
The Tar Heels played a schedule with a 50% rating, but their one loss was a 34-point beating on the road at #3 Oklahoma. You can't lose a game by 34 points, no matter what the opponent or situation, and expect to win a McMNC. Plus, their SOS was inflated by a win over 9-1-1 Furman. It's nice they beat Texas in a bowl game, but the Longhorns were only 7-5 in 1980. In fact, UNC didn't beat a ranked team all season, and the only ranked team they played beat them silly. So, despite Georgia's laughable schedule, they stay ahead of UNC in this analysis.
Which leaves us with Pittsburgh. The Panthers' sole loss was on the road to #5 Florida State, a better team than Georgia played all season. Their best win was a five-point road victory at #8 Penn State. In fact, Pittsburgh played six road games in 1980, which is an impressive feat against a 56%-rated SOS. They beat unranked 7-4 Boston College at home by eight points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 29 points, and they beat unranked 8-4 South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. They played five games against winning teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played two AP-ranked teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played a tougher schedule, through and through, than Georgia, and they did so in more dominant fashion -- winning on the road against a Top 10 team (Penn State) and playing more than half their schedule (including the bowl game) on the road.
Sorry, Herschel. No Heisman and no McMNC, either.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. Georgia
3. North Carolina
4. BYU
5. Penn State (62% SOS)
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 16, 2008
Thursday, June 12, 2008
1979 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-9
2. USC: 11-0-1 -- W, Rose, 17-16
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-7
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 16-17
5. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
6. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 7-24
7. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 16-10
8. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 9-24
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 14-17
10. Purdue: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-22
Side note: BYU went 11-1 with a 50% SOS, losing on their Holiday Bowl game to #19 Indiana by a point. Pretty good season, and the start of their ascent to 1984 and beyond.
Five teams here to consider: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, Houston and Pittsburgh. Two teams that choked away their bowl games? Ohio State and Florida State ... insert your own BCS joke here. And Nebraska, which started out 10-0 only to lose its last two games by three points each. No wonder Dr. Tom was so beleaguered in the 1980s.
Pittsburgh: With a 53% SOS rating, the Panthers are in this. Their only loss was on the road to AP #15 North Carolina (8-3-1 with Lawrence Taylor?) on September 22. They beat AP #17 Temple (9-2) on the road, they beat AP #11 Washington (9-3) on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Navy at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Syracuse at home, they beat AP #20 Penn State (8-4) at home, and they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They faced seven teams with winning records, losing only the first one on the road. A great season for Pitt, but can it hold up?
Houston: Is this the NFL or the NCAAs? Pittsburgh, Houston, 1979 ... anyway, like Pitt, Houston's only loss was to a ranked team: they lost to AP #12 Texas (9-3) at home. But their SOS rating was 50%, and they beat unranked 6-4-1 West Texas A&M at home, they beat AP #14 Baylor (8-4) at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas A&M on the road, they beat #8 Arkansas on the road, and they beat #9 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl. If it wasn't for some really bad teams on the schedule (0-10-1 Florida, 2-8-1 TCU and 1-10 Rice), the SOS would be much higher. As it is, Earl Campbell cannot beat Terry Bradshaw, so Houston falls just a notch below Pitt in this analysis.
Oklahoma: #12 Texas also ruined the Sooners' season, beating Oklahoma in October. The Sooners also have a 50% SOS rating, tying them with Houston in this analysis. Oklahoma's list of victims includes unranked 6-5 Tulsa (coached by John Cooper) at home, unranked 7-4 Oklahoma State (coached by Jimmy Johnson) on the road, UPI #20 Missouri (7-5) on the road, #9 Nebraska at home and previously-unbeaten #6 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. A good season, with some wins over some soon-to-be-famous coaches, but overall, the SOS isn't strong enough to pass Pitt, either.
USC: They have a potentially-hurtful tie, a 21-21 draw to 5-5-1 Stanford in Los Angeles. But they also have a 51% SOS rating with no losses. That puts them a bit above Pittsburgh, simply because they didn't lose. They beat unranked 7-5 LSU on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Notre Dame on the road, they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona at home, they beat AP #11 Washington on the road, and they knicked previously-unbeaten and then-#1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. They had three road wins in very tough places, and they knocked off the Buckeyes. The SOS would have been higher if not for 1-10 Oregon State. Not an overwhelming resume, but enough to take the lead from Pittsburgh at this stage of the analysis.
Alabama: Now, this is only open for debate because the Tide has a mediocre SOS rating of 44%. They were the only unblemished team in the country, but who did they play to get there? They shutout #14 Baylor by 45 points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Tennessee at home, they shutout 7-5 LSU on the road by three points, they beat AP #16 Auburn (8-3) on the road, and they beat #8 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. A schedule very similar to USC's, actually, minus the tie, of course. Why was 'Bama's SOS so low? In their first five games, they faced 1-10 Vanderbilt, 1-10 Wichita State and 0-10-1 Florida.
Common opponents? LSU, which USC beat by five points in Baton Rouge (17-12) and the Tide beat 3-0 in Baton Rouge. Can that tell us anything? Barely. USC does have the tie to .500 Stanford, but they also have the better SOS and perhaps the better bowl win (beating the previous #1 team in the country). The Tide have no ties and dominated their bowl game more thoroughly (albeit against #6 Arkansas).
So who gets the call? The Trojans or the Tide?
In the end, it comes down to that tie. Is the Trojans' superior SOS rating enough to compensate for the tie to a .500 team? In the past analyses, I have generally considering a double-digit edge in SOS to be enough to compensate for an extra loss (or a single loss, as it were). The examples precede this analysis, of course. Therefore, is the requisite for erasing a tie going to be half the double-digit SOS margin required to erase a loss? That would be five points in the SOS, and USC clearly has that covered in 1979 when considering their case over Alabama.
Both teams beat five winnings teams; Alabama beat three ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 13th), while USC only beat two ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 8th). Alabama played three pathetic teams on their way to 12-0, while USC only played one pathetic team on their way to 11-0-1. But you can't repeat the SOS argument in different languages, for that just compounds what we already know.
USC played a better schedule, and their seven-point edge in SOS rating is enough to overcome that tie to a .500 team. In addition, USC played an extra road game in 1979 while traveling to Texas, Indiana and Louisiana to take on OOC opponents. Alabama? They never left the comfy confines of the South.
USC played a better schedule, and that's good enough for the McMNC. They become just the third team to win back-to-back McMNCs, joining 1940s Michigan and 1970s Nebraska.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Pittsburgh
4. Oklahoma
5. Houston
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Alabama: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-9
2. USC: 11-0-1 -- W, Rose, 17-16
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-7
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 16-17
5. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
6. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 7-24
7. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 16-10
8. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 9-24
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 14-17
10. Purdue: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-22
Side note: BYU went 11-1 with a 50% SOS, losing on their Holiday Bowl game to #19 Indiana by a point. Pretty good season, and the start of their ascent to 1984 and beyond.
Five teams here to consider: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, Houston and Pittsburgh. Two teams that choked away their bowl games? Ohio State and Florida State ... insert your own BCS joke here. And Nebraska, which started out 10-0 only to lose its last two games by three points each. No wonder Dr. Tom was so beleaguered in the 1980s.
Pittsburgh: With a 53% SOS rating, the Panthers are in this. Their only loss was on the road to AP #15 North Carolina (8-3-1 with Lawrence Taylor?) on September 22. They beat AP #17 Temple (9-2) on the road, they beat AP #11 Washington (9-3) on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Navy at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Syracuse at home, they beat AP #20 Penn State (8-4) at home, and they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They faced seven teams with winning records, losing only the first one on the road. A great season for Pitt, but can it hold up?
Houston: Is this the NFL or the NCAAs? Pittsburgh, Houston, 1979 ... anyway, like Pitt, Houston's only loss was to a ranked team: they lost to AP #12 Texas (9-3) at home. But their SOS rating was 50%, and they beat unranked 6-4-1 West Texas A&M at home, they beat AP #14 Baylor (8-4) at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas A&M on the road, they beat #8 Arkansas on the road, and they beat #9 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl. If it wasn't for some really bad teams on the schedule (0-10-1 Florida, 2-8-1 TCU and 1-10 Rice), the SOS would be much higher. As it is, Earl Campbell cannot beat Terry Bradshaw, so Houston falls just a notch below Pitt in this analysis.
Oklahoma: #12 Texas also ruined the Sooners' season, beating Oklahoma in October. The Sooners also have a 50% SOS rating, tying them with Houston in this analysis. Oklahoma's list of victims includes unranked 6-5 Tulsa (coached by John Cooper) at home, unranked 7-4 Oklahoma State (coached by Jimmy Johnson) on the road, UPI #20 Missouri (7-5) on the road, #9 Nebraska at home and previously-unbeaten #6 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. A good season, with some wins over some soon-to-be-famous coaches, but overall, the SOS isn't strong enough to pass Pitt, either.
USC: They have a potentially-hurtful tie, a 21-21 draw to 5-5-1 Stanford in Los Angeles. But they also have a 51% SOS rating with no losses. That puts them a bit above Pittsburgh, simply because they didn't lose. They beat unranked 7-5 LSU on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Notre Dame on the road, they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona at home, they beat AP #11 Washington on the road, and they knicked previously-unbeaten and then-#1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. They had three road wins in very tough places, and they knocked off the Buckeyes. The SOS would have been higher if not for 1-10 Oregon State. Not an overwhelming resume, but enough to take the lead from Pittsburgh at this stage of the analysis.
Alabama: Now, this is only open for debate because the Tide has a mediocre SOS rating of 44%. They were the only unblemished team in the country, but who did they play to get there? They shutout #14 Baylor by 45 points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Tennessee at home, they shutout 7-5 LSU on the road by three points, they beat AP #16 Auburn (8-3) on the road, and they beat #8 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. A schedule very similar to USC's, actually, minus the tie, of course. Why was 'Bama's SOS so low? In their first five games, they faced 1-10 Vanderbilt, 1-10 Wichita State and 0-10-1 Florida.
Common opponents? LSU, which USC beat by five points in Baton Rouge (17-12) and the Tide beat 3-0 in Baton Rouge. Can that tell us anything? Barely. USC does have the tie to .500 Stanford, but they also have the better SOS and perhaps the better bowl win (beating the previous #1 team in the country). The Tide have no ties and dominated their bowl game more thoroughly (albeit against #6 Arkansas).
So who gets the call? The Trojans or the Tide?
In the end, it comes down to that tie. Is the Trojans' superior SOS rating enough to compensate for the tie to a .500 team? In the past analyses, I have generally considering a double-digit edge in SOS to be enough to compensate for an extra loss (or a single loss, as it were). The examples precede this analysis, of course. Therefore, is the requisite for erasing a tie going to be half the double-digit SOS margin required to erase a loss? That would be five points in the SOS, and USC clearly has that covered in 1979 when considering their case over Alabama.
Both teams beat five winnings teams; Alabama beat three ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 13th), while USC only beat two ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 8th). Alabama played three pathetic teams on their way to 12-0, while USC only played one pathetic team on their way to 11-0-1. But you can't repeat the SOS argument in different languages, for that just compounds what we already know.
USC played a better schedule, and their seven-point edge in SOS rating is enough to overcome that tie to a .500 team. In addition, USC played an extra road game in 1979 while traveling to Texas, Indiana and Louisiana to take on OOC opponents. Alabama? They never left the comfy confines of the South.
USC played a better schedule, and that's good enough for the McMNC. They become just the third team to win back-to-back McMNCs, joining 1940s Michigan and 1970s Nebraska.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Pittsburgh
4. Oklahoma
5. Houston
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 9, 2008
1978 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 17-10
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-24
4. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
6. Clemson: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 17-15
7. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-34
8. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 24-31
9. Texas: 9-3-0 -- W, Sun, 42-0
10. Houston: 9-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 34-35
This is a funny year, where Alabama was named the AP champion despite an obvious flaw the voters chose to ignore (see below). Logic is the middle name of the McMNC, so strap yourselves in.
TUCs this year are 'Bama, USC, Oklahoma and Clemson. Penn State and Michigan both blew their bowl games, although if Penn State had won, Michigan would have been eliminated, anyway, in all likelihood. Poor Bo.
Clemson is probably better remembered for ending Woody Hayes' career than they are for going 11-1 in 1978. But they had a great season. The one loss was a 12-point road defeat to AP #16 Georgia (9-2-1), nominally respectable since it came in September. Their overall SOS rating was 49%, and it included wins over AP #18 North Carolina State (9-3), AP #20 Maryland (9-3) and 7-4-1 Ohio State. Those were the only four teams with winning records on Clemson's 1978 schedule, though.
Oklahoma's only loss was on the road to #8 Nebraska by three points, and the Sooners avenged that loss in the Orange Bowl. But technically, Nebraska won the Big 8 in 1978, based on the regular-season, head-to-head win over the Sooners. So Oklahoma is eliminated, because they didn't win their conference. Their SOS rating? A mid-level 50%, including wins over AP #17 Stanford (8-4), AP #15 Missouri (8-4), AP #9 Texas, unranked 8-4 Iowa State, unranked 6-5 Colorado, and the split against the Cornhuskers. A pretty good slate, save for 2-9 West Virginia, 2-9 Rice, 1-10 Kansas, and 3-8 Oklahoma State that sink the SOS overall. Oh well ...
USC blows Oklahoma out of the water with a 64% SOS rating in 1978. Their one loss was to UPI #19 Arizona State (9-3), on the road, in its first Pac-8/10 season: an acceptable loss, at worst. The Trojans beat unranked 7-4 Texas Tech by eight points at home, #1 Alabama on the road by ten points, AP #12 Michigan State (8-3) at home by 21 points, unranked 6-5 California by 25 points at home, AP #17 Stanford by six points on the road, unranked 7-4 Washington by 18 points at home, AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) by seven points on the "road", #7 Notre Dame by two points at home, unranked 6-5 Hawaii on the road by 16 points, and #5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl by a touchdown. Have you lost count of how many winning teams USC beat in 1978? TEN. Oregon and Oregon State were 5-16-1 in 1978, and they were the only teams with losing records on the Trojans' schedule. This, my RSFCkers, is a SCHEDULE.
Alabama? They played a great schedule, too, to a 60% SOS rating. Their only loss? To #2 USC at home by ten points (see above). The Tide beat #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, they beat AP #15 Missouri (8-4) by 18 points on the road, they beat 7-4 Washington on the road by three points, they beat unranked 6-5 Mississippi State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 8-4 Louisiana State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 6-4-1 Auburn on the road by 18 points, and they beat #4 Penn State (then unbeaten and #1) in the Sugar Bowl by seven points. The Tide beat seven winning teams in 1978, which is pretty good in any other season. There's also the little tricky bit about the head-to-head loss to USC at HOME. And you KNOW what that means ...
It mystifies me the AP voters messed this one up so badly. At least the UPI poll got it right, putting USC at #1 at the end of the season.
The Trojans were robbed in 1978, and I aim to put it right.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Penn State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 17-10
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-24
4. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
6. Clemson: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 17-15
7. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-34
8. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 24-31
9. Texas: 9-3-0 -- W, Sun, 42-0
10. Houston: 9-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 34-35
This is a funny year, where Alabama was named the AP champion despite an obvious flaw the voters chose to ignore (see below). Logic is the middle name of the McMNC, so strap yourselves in.
TUCs this year are 'Bama, USC, Oklahoma and Clemson. Penn State and Michigan both blew their bowl games, although if Penn State had won, Michigan would have been eliminated, anyway, in all likelihood. Poor Bo.
Clemson is probably better remembered for ending Woody Hayes' career than they are for going 11-1 in 1978. But they had a great season. The one loss was a 12-point road defeat to AP #16 Georgia (9-2-1), nominally respectable since it came in September. Their overall SOS rating was 49%, and it included wins over AP #18 North Carolina State (9-3), AP #20 Maryland (9-3) and 7-4-1 Ohio State. Those were the only four teams with winning records on Clemson's 1978 schedule, though.
Oklahoma's only loss was on the road to #8 Nebraska by three points, and the Sooners avenged that loss in the Orange Bowl. But technically, Nebraska won the Big 8 in 1978, based on the regular-season, head-to-head win over the Sooners. So Oklahoma is eliminated, because they didn't win their conference. Their SOS rating? A mid-level 50%, including wins over AP #17 Stanford (8-4), AP #15 Missouri (8-4), AP #9 Texas, unranked 8-4 Iowa State, unranked 6-5 Colorado, and the split against the Cornhuskers. A pretty good slate, save for 2-9 West Virginia, 2-9 Rice, 1-10 Kansas, and 3-8 Oklahoma State that sink the SOS overall. Oh well ...
USC blows Oklahoma out of the water with a 64% SOS rating in 1978. Their one loss was to UPI #19 Arizona State (9-3), on the road, in its first Pac-8/10 season: an acceptable loss, at worst. The Trojans beat unranked 7-4 Texas Tech by eight points at home, #1 Alabama on the road by ten points, AP #12 Michigan State (8-3) at home by 21 points, unranked 6-5 California by 25 points at home, AP #17 Stanford by six points on the road, unranked 7-4 Washington by 18 points at home, AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) by seven points on the "road", #7 Notre Dame by two points at home, unranked 6-5 Hawaii on the road by 16 points, and #5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl by a touchdown. Have you lost count of how many winning teams USC beat in 1978? TEN. Oregon and Oregon State were 5-16-1 in 1978, and they were the only teams with losing records on the Trojans' schedule. This, my RSFCkers, is a SCHEDULE.
Alabama? They played a great schedule, too, to a 60% SOS rating. Their only loss? To #2 USC at home by ten points (see above). The Tide beat #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, they beat AP #15 Missouri (8-4) by 18 points on the road, they beat 7-4 Washington on the road by three points, they beat unranked 6-5 Mississippi State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 8-4 Louisiana State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 6-4-1 Auburn on the road by 18 points, and they beat #4 Penn State (then unbeaten and #1) in the Sugar Bowl by seven points. The Tide beat seven winning teams in 1978, which is pretty good in any other season. There's also the little tricky bit about the head-to-head loss to USC at HOME. And you KNOW what that means ...
It mystifies me the AP voters messed this one up so badly. At least the UPI poll got it right, putting USC at #1 at the end of the season.
The Trojans were robbed in 1978, and I aim to put it right.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Penn State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Thursday, June 5, 2008
1977 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Notre Dame: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-10
2. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 35-6
3. Arkansas: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-6
4. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 10-38
5. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-30
6. Kentucky: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
7. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 6-31
8. Pittsburgh: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 34-3
9. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 20-27
10. Washington: 8-4-0 -- W, Rose, 27-20
So, this is a fun year (ugh). You have four teams with the same credentials (Notre Dame, Alabama, Arkansas and Penn State -- and if Bo hadn't choked away another Rose Bowl ...), so let's start separating them.
The Irish have an SOS rating of 58%, which is going to be hard to beat. They have a bad loss, though: a seven-point road loss to 5-6 Mississippi, the middle leg of a three-game road trip to open the season. They did beat #8 Pittsburgh by ten points on the road to open the season, they beat 7-3-1 Michigan State by ten points at home, they shutout 7-4 Army on the road 20-0, they pounded AP #13 USC (8-4) at home by 30 points, they creamed 6-5 Georgia Tech by 55 points at home, they beat AP #19 Clemson (8-3-1) by four points on the road, and they butchered then-#1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Overall, a pretty impressive slate -- but will that loss to a losing team hurt them?
Alabama has a respectable SOS at 51%, but it still trails the Irish, of course. Their loss? A seven-point road loss to AP #12 Nebraska (9-3) on September 17, the same day the Irish lost. But that is a very respectable loss, and it could be enough to overcome the Irish SOS advantage. They beat #13 USC on the road by a point, they pounded 7-4-1 Louisville at home by 49 points, they beat 8-4 Louisiana State on the road by 21 points, and they buried #11 Ohio State (9-3) in the Sugar Bowl. Their wins aren't as impressive as Notre Dame's, but they don't have an embarrassing loss, either.
Arkansas is eliminated from this McMNC discussion, because they finished second in the SWC -- their one loss was a four-point home setback to the Longhorns. And with a 48% SOS rating, they wouldn't have made the cut, anyway.
That leaves us with Penn State. Long had the Nittany Lions missed out on McMNCs because of poor schedule, but in 1977? Their SOS rating was an astounding 60%! But was it a soft 60% or a firm 60%? Their one loss was four-point home setback to cheatenous #6 Kentucky. That's almost like a win, in truth, especially in this conversation. They beat 8-3 Rutgers by 38 points on the road (soft), they beat 7-5 Houston at home by 17 points, they beat 8-5 Maryland at home by 18 points, they beat 6-5 Syracuse on the road by seven points, they beat UPI #19 North Carolina State (8-4) on the road by four points, they beat #8 Pittsburgh on the road by two points, and they beat AP #18 Arizona State (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl. An interesting schedule, supported by games against middling teams (5-6 West Virginia and 5-5-1 Temple), but it lacks pop.
So we have a close one here: Notre Dame at 58% SOS with a bad loss and three big wins, Alabama at 51% SOS with a good loss and one big win, and Penn State at 60% SOS with a "loss" to probation Kentucky and few impressive wins.
Hmmmm. As Lucius Aurelius Commodus Antoninus would say, "It vexes me. I'm terribly vexed."
In the end, you can't give the McMNC to a TUC who has a loss to a losing team, especially when the other two teams lost to Top 12 teams. That eliminates Notre Dame. And Penn State trumps Alabama on SOS and the "better loss" angle.
Congratulations, Joe Paterno. You earned it.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Notre Dame: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-10
2. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 35-6
3. Arkansas: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-6
4. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 10-38
5. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-30
6. Kentucky: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
7. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 6-31
8. Pittsburgh: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 34-3
9. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 20-27
10. Washington: 8-4-0 -- W, Rose, 27-20
So, this is a fun year (ugh). You have four teams with the same credentials (Notre Dame, Alabama, Arkansas and Penn State -- and if Bo hadn't choked away another Rose Bowl ...), so let's start separating them.
The Irish have an SOS rating of 58%, which is going to be hard to beat. They have a bad loss, though: a seven-point road loss to 5-6 Mississippi, the middle leg of a three-game road trip to open the season. They did beat #8 Pittsburgh by ten points on the road to open the season, they beat 7-3-1 Michigan State by ten points at home, they shutout 7-4 Army on the road 20-0, they pounded AP #13 USC (8-4) at home by 30 points, they creamed 6-5 Georgia Tech by 55 points at home, they beat AP #19 Clemson (8-3-1) by four points on the road, and they butchered then-#1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Overall, a pretty impressive slate -- but will that loss to a losing team hurt them?
Alabama has a respectable SOS at 51%, but it still trails the Irish, of course. Their loss? A seven-point road loss to AP #12 Nebraska (9-3) on September 17, the same day the Irish lost. But that is a very respectable loss, and it could be enough to overcome the Irish SOS advantage. They beat #13 USC on the road by a point, they pounded 7-4-1 Louisville at home by 49 points, they beat 8-4 Louisiana State on the road by 21 points, and they buried #11 Ohio State (9-3) in the Sugar Bowl. Their wins aren't as impressive as Notre Dame's, but they don't have an embarrassing loss, either.
Arkansas is eliminated from this McMNC discussion, because they finished second in the SWC -- their one loss was a four-point home setback to the Longhorns. And with a 48% SOS rating, they wouldn't have made the cut, anyway.
That leaves us with Penn State. Long had the Nittany Lions missed out on McMNCs because of poor schedule, but in 1977? Their SOS rating was an astounding 60%! But was it a soft 60% or a firm 60%? Their one loss was four-point home setback to cheatenous #6 Kentucky. That's almost like a win, in truth, especially in this conversation. They beat 8-3 Rutgers by 38 points on the road (soft), they beat 7-5 Houston at home by 17 points, they beat 8-5 Maryland at home by 18 points, they beat 6-5 Syracuse on the road by seven points, they beat UPI #19 North Carolina State (8-4) on the road by four points, they beat #8 Pittsburgh on the road by two points, and they beat AP #18 Arizona State (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl. An interesting schedule, supported by games against middling teams (5-6 West Virginia and 5-5-1 Temple), but it lacks pop.
So we have a close one here: Notre Dame at 58% SOS with a bad loss and three big wins, Alabama at 51% SOS with a good loss and one big win, and Penn State at 60% SOS with a "loss" to probation Kentucky and few impressive wins.
Hmmmm. As Lucius Aurelius Commodus Antoninus would say, "It vexes me. I'm terribly vexed."
In the end, you can't give the McMNC to a TUC who has a loss to a losing team, especially when the other two teams lost to Top 12 teams. That eliminates Notre Dame. And Penn State trumps Alabama on SOS and the "better loss" angle.
Congratulations, Joe Paterno. You earned it.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 2, 2008
1976 McMNC: Pittsburgh Panthers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Pittsburgh: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-3
2. USC: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 14-6
3. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 6-14
4. Houston: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 30-21
5. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- W, Fiesta, 41-7
6. Ohio State: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 27-10
7. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Sun, 37-14
8. Maryland: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 21-30
9. Nebraska: 9-3-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-24
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 3-27
Note: Rutgers went 11-0 with a 32% SOS rating to finish 17th in the AP poll. Congrats! Also, if Maryland had won the Cotton Bowl, they would have a case against Pittsburgh (see below).
So Pitt is the clear favorite here, of course, as the only undefeated team. The question is their SOS and the one-loss, bowl-winning team behind them: USC. Not a lot to choose from in 1976, huh?
USC: Ironic, but their one loss is the same as Alabama's from 1975 -- a double-digit home loss to 6-5 Missouri. The Trojans actually lost 46-25 in their opening game of the season, before winning the last 11 straight. Their SOS rating was 51%, which isn't going to overwhelm anyone, although it's not bad by any stretch. They beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by 24 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (9-2-1) on the "road" by ten points, they beat AP #12 Notre Dame (9-3) by four points at home, and they beat #3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Again, these were four of the last five games of the season for USC -- and the only wins against winning teams all season. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Oregon State and 3-8 Washington State, by the way.
Pittsburgh: Since the Panthers' SOS rating was 48%, they're going to keep their McMNC rights intact with the perfect record and a bowl win. They beat #12 Notre Dame on the road by 21 points, and that was their only win over a ranked team until the Sugar Bowl. They played only one other winning team in 1976: 7-5 Penn State. One of the weaker schedules you see for a McMNC winner, that's for sure. If Maryland had won its bowl game, they had a higher SOS rating (49%) and might have edged the Panthers.
USC has more wins over ranked teams, and they have more wins over winning teams. But the one loss was a big one for the Trojans, and it cost them the McMNC in 1976.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. USC
3. Houston
4. Texas A&M
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
1. Pittsburgh: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-3
2. USC: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 14-6
3. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 6-14
4. Houston: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 30-21
5. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- W, Fiesta, 41-7
6. Ohio State: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 27-10
7. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Sun, 37-14
8. Maryland: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 21-30
9. Nebraska: 9-3-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-24
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 3-27
Note: Rutgers went 11-0 with a 32% SOS rating to finish 17th in the AP poll. Congrats! Also, if Maryland had won the Cotton Bowl, they would have a case against Pittsburgh (see below).
So Pitt is the clear favorite here, of course, as the only undefeated team. The question is their SOS and the one-loss, bowl-winning team behind them: USC. Not a lot to choose from in 1976, huh?
USC: Ironic, but their one loss is the same as Alabama's from 1975 -- a double-digit home loss to 6-5 Missouri. The Trojans actually lost 46-25 in their opening game of the season, before winning the last 11 straight. Their SOS rating was 51%, which isn't going to overwhelm anyone, although it's not bad by any stretch. They beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by 24 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (9-2-1) on the "road" by ten points, they beat AP #12 Notre Dame (9-3) by four points at home, and they beat #3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Again, these were four of the last five games of the season for USC -- and the only wins against winning teams all season. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Oregon State and 3-8 Washington State, by the way.
Pittsburgh: Since the Panthers' SOS rating was 48%, they're going to keep their McMNC rights intact with the perfect record and a bowl win. They beat #12 Notre Dame on the road by 21 points, and that was their only win over a ranked team until the Sugar Bowl. They played only one other winning team in 1976: 7-5 Penn State. One of the weaker schedules you see for a McMNC winner, that's for sure. If Maryland had won its bowl game, they had a higher SOS rating (49%) and might have edged the Panthers.
USC has more wins over ranked teams, and they have more wins over winning teams. But the one loss was a big one for the Trojans, and it cost them the McMNC in 1976.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. USC
3. Houston
4. Texas A&M
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
Thursday, May 29, 2008
1975 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 14-6
2. Arizona State: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 17-14
3. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-6
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 10-23
5. UCLA: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 23-10
6. Texas: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 38-21
7. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 31-10
8. Michigan: 8-2-2 -- L, Orange, 6-14
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 14-17
10. Penn State: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 6-13
The last nine McMNCs have been won by only four schools (USC, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Ohio State). The era of dynasties? Perhaps. Maybe Miami-OH should be considered one of them? They finished ranked #12 with a 11-1 record, a 48% SOS rating and another Citrus Bowl win. Their only loss was a one-point road loss to 7-4 Michigan State, finishing a 32-1-1 stretch from 1973-1975.
But I digress.
Oklahoma, off probation, gets consideration here, as do Arizona State and Alabama. Ohio State blew their season in the Rose Bowl (sound familiar?), of course, opening the door for this debate.
Let's start with the Tide: They had an SOS rating of 49%, and their one loss was the first game of the year -- a 13-point home setback to 6-5 Missouri. The Tigers lost to Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma in this season, so this is NOT a good loss for 'Bama. However, the Tide did beat 7-4 Vanderbilt on the road by 33 points, hey beat 6-5 Mississippi by 26 points at home, they beat 6-5 Washington in a 52-0 shutout at home, they beat 7-5 Tennessee by 23 points at home, they beat 6-4-1 Mississippi State by 11 points at home, and they beat 7-4 Southern Miss at home by 21 points. Alas, the only ranked team they beat all year? Penn State in the Sugar Bowl. But seriously, they played a lot of winning teams in 1975. Their SOS was buried by 1-10 TCU.
Arizona State had a great season, but their SOS was only 44%. However, they did go undefeated, which is more than Alabama can say. They, too, beat 6-5 Washington at home (but only by 23 points), and they, too, had their SOS sunk by TCU (as well as 1-10 UTEP and 1-10 Utah -- not to mention 2-9 Wyoming!). The Sun Devils did register wins over 6-5 BYU (20-0 at home), 6-5 New Mexico (16-10 on the road), 6-5 Colorado State (33-3 on the road), AP #18 Arizona (9-2) by three points at "home" and their three-point win over #9 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl (another home game). They proved they could play with the big boys, but Nebraska's level of motivation for this bowl game was probably pretty low. They'd lost their perfect season in the last regular season game, getting hosed by 25 points on the road against Oklahoma. Why would they care about the Fiesta Bowl? They should have, considering Oklahoma was no lock to win their bowl game against Michigan (then again, with Bo at the helm, maybe that isn't true?). Either way, ASU's schedule was a perfect mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. And they did go undefeated, and since Alabama's SOS was no great shakes, Arizona State has the edge on the Tide.
Finally, the Sooners arrive on the McMNC scene for the first time since the 1950s. Their SOS? A very good 57%, but their only loss was a bad one: a 20-point home loss to 7-5 Kansas on November 8. But hey, they recovered and won the Big 8 and the Orange Bowl. So all is forgiven with an SOS like that, right? Mmmmm. They beat AP #15 Pittsburgh (8-4) by 36 points at home, they beat AP #16 Colorado (9-3) by one point at home, they beat #6 Texas by a touchdown, they beat 7-4 Oklahoma State on the road by 20 points, they beat 6-5 Missouri by a point on the road, they beat #9 Nebraska at home by 25 points (see above), and they beat #8 Michigan in the Orange Bowl by eight points. That is FIVE wins over ranked teams, including three in the Top 10. There is no way Arizona State can compete with that schedule, period.
In the end, a strong SOS for a big conference school should always be enough to overcome a W/L deficit to a small school. And Oklahoma proved that in 1975.
Bootlegger's Boy!
McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Arizona State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Miami-OH
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
1. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 14-6
2. Arizona State: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 17-14
3. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-6
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 10-23
5. UCLA: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 23-10
6. Texas: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 38-21
7. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 31-10
8. Michigan: 8-2-2 -- L, Orange, 6-14
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 14-17
10. Penn State: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 6-13
The last nine McMNCs have been won by only four schools (USC, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Ohio State). The era of dynasties? Perhaps. Maybe Miami-OH should be considered one of them? They finished ranked #12 with a 11-1 record, a 48% SOS rating and another Citrus Bowl win. Their only loss was a one-point road loss to 7-4 Michigan State, finishing a 32-1-1 stretch from 1973-1975.
But I digress.
Oklahoma, off probation, gets consideration here, as do Arizona State and Alabama. Ohio State blew their season in the Rose Bowl (sound familiar?), of course, opening the door for this debate.
Let's start with the Tide: They had an SOS rating of 49%, and their one loss was the first game of the year -- a 13-point home setback to 6-5 Missouri. The Tigers lost to Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma in this season, so this is NOT a good loss for 'Bama. However, the Tide did beat 7-4 Vanderbilt on the road by 33 points, hey beat 6-5 Mississippi by 26 points at home, they beat 6-5 Washington in a 52-0 shutout at home, they beat 7-5 Tennessee by 23 points at home, they beat 6-4-1 Mississippi State by 11 points at home, and they beat 7-4 Southern Miss at home by 21 points. Alas, the only ranked team they beat all year? Penn State in the Sugar Bowl. But seriously, they played a lot of winning teams in 1975. Their SOS was buried by 1-10 TCU.
Arizona State had a great season, but their SOS was only 44%. However, they did go undefeated, which is more than Alabama can say. They, too, beat 6-5 Washington at home (but only by 23 points), and they, too, had their SOS sunk by TCU (as well as 1-10 UTEP and 1-10 Utah -- not to mention 2-9 Wyoming!). The Sun Devils did register wins over 6-5 BYU (20-0 at home), 6-5 New Mexico (16-10 on the road), 6-5 Colorado State (33-3 on the road), AP #18 Arizona (9-2) by three points at "home" and their three-point win over #9 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl (another home game). They proved they could play with the big boys, but Nebraska's level of motivation for this bowl game was probably pretty low. They'd lost their perfect season in the last regular season game, getting hosed by 25 points on the road against Oklahoma. Why would they care about the Fiesta Bowl? They should have, considering Oklahoma was no lock to win their bowl game against Michigan (then again, with Bo at the helm, maybe that isn't true?). Either way, ASU's schedule was a perfect mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. And they did go undefeated, and since Alabama's SOS was no great shakes, Arizona State has the edge on the Tide.
Finally, the Sooners arrive on the McMNC scene for the first time since the 1950s. Their SOS? A very good 57%, but their only loss was a bad one: a 20-point home loss to 7-5 Kansas on November 8. But hey, they recovered and won the Big 8 and the Orange Bowl. So all is forgiven with an SOS like that, right? Mmmmm. They beat AP #15 Pittsburgh (8-4) by 36 points at home, they beat AP #16 Colorado (9-3) by one point at home, they beat #6 Texas by a touchdown, they beat 7-4 Oklahoma State on the road by 20 points, they beat 6-5 Missouri by a point on the road, they beat #9 Nebraska at home by 25 points (see above), and they beat #8 Michigan in the Orange Bowl by eight points. That is FIVE wins over ranked teams, including three in the Top 10. There is no way Arizona State can compete with that schedule, period.
In the end, a strong SOS for a big conference school should always be enough to overcome a W/L deficit to a small school. And Oklahoma proved that in 1975.
Bootlegger's Boy!
McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Arizona State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Miami-OH
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
Monday, May 26, 2008
1974 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Oklahoma: 11-0-0 -- NONE (probation)
2. USC: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 18-17
3. Michigan: 10-1-0 -- NONE
4. Ohio State: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 17-18
5. Notre Dame: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 13-11
6. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 11-13
7. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 41-20
8. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 27-3
9. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-10
10. Miami-OH: 10-0-1 -- W, Citrus, 21-10
Another interesting year in McMNC Land. Surprised? You shouldn't be.
I won't crown cheaters, so the Sooners are RSFCked. So while Fairbanks skipped off to the NFL, Barry Switzer learned some lessons -- or maybe he didn't. Your call there.
This comes down to USC, Notre Dame and ... Penn State? Michigan is out, since they didn't win the Big Ten. Alabama is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to Notre Dame, and Ohio State is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to USC. I can't consider Miami-OH, since their one blemish was a tie to 4-6-1 Purdue. Clearly, they couldn't piss with the big boys.
What a messed up season. Screw you, Chuck Fairbanks.
Penn State: Another substandard SOS for the Nittany Lions, as they check in this time with a 45% rating. And they lost to 4-7 Navy at home, albeit by one point. They also went down to AP #11 North Carolina State (9-2-1) on the road by five points, a decent blemish if you must have one. Otherwise, they beat #13 Maryland (8-4) by seven points at home, and they beat #14 Baylor (8-4) in the Cotton Bowl. To go only 2-2 against winning teams with a low SOS rating isn't enough, right?
Notre Dame: Their SOS rating was 50%, and for the second year in a row, they nipped Alabama in a bowl game to ruin the Tide's perfect season. Man, 'Bama must HATE the Irish, huh? But the Irish lost at home by 11 points to the same Purdue team that tied Miami-OH. Doh! The Irish also got taken behind the woodshed by USC in the famous Anthony Davis game, losing 55-24 in Los Angeles. Those are two bad losses, and in reality, the second one means they lose the head-to-head edge against USC.
USC: So, can they top the Nittany Lions' unimpressive schedule? Yes, with a 52% SOS rating, the Trojans claim this McMNC easily. Their only loss was a 15-point road defeat to 6-4-1 Arkansas in the first game of the year. They did tie 7-3-1 California at home (15-15), and their only two wins over ranked teams were the big win over Notre Dame and the Rose Bowl squeaker against Ohio State. They did have three other wins over winning teams (7-4 Pittsburgh with Tony Dorsett, 5-4-2 Stanford, 6-3-2 UCLA). They have the best record of the TUCs, they have the single-best win amongst the TUCs, and they have the best SOS in the bunch, too.
This year, that's not saying much, but in a open contest, the Trojans have the best resume.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Notre Dame
3. Penn State
4. Alabama
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1974
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, -1974
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
1. Oklahoma: 11-0-0 -- NONE (probation)
2. USC: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 18-17
3. Michigan: 10-1-0 -- NONE
4. Ohio State: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 17-18
5. Notre Dame: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 13-11
6. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 11-13
7. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 41-20
8. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 27-3
9. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-10
10. Miami-OH: 10-0-1 -- W, Citrus, 21-10
Another interesting year in McMNC Land. Surprised? You shouldn't be.
I won't crown cheaters, so the Sooners are RSFCked. So while Fairbanks skipped off to the NFL, Barry Switzer learned some lessons -- or maybe he didn't. Your call there.
This comes down to USC, Notre Dame and ... Penn State? Michigan is out, since they didn't win the Big Ten. Alabama is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to Notre Dame, and Ohio State is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to USC. I can't consider Miami-OH, since their one blemish was a tie to 4-6-1 Purdue. Clearly, they couldn't piss with the big boys.
What a messed up season. Screw you, Chuck Fairbanks.
Penn State: Another substandard SOS for the Nittany Lions, as they check in this time with a 45% rating. And they lost to 4-7 Navy at home, albeit by one point. They also went down to AP #11 North Carolina State (9-2-1) on the road by five points, a decent blemish if you must have one. Otherwise, they beat #13 Maryland (8-4) by seven points at home, and they beat #14 Baylor (8-4) in the Cotton Bowl. To go only 2-2 against winning teams with a low SOS rating isn't enough, right?
Notre Dame: Their SOS rating was 50%, and for the second year in a row, they nipped Alabama in a bowl game to ruin the Tide's perfect season. Man, 'Bama must HATE the Irish, huh? But the Irish lost at home by 11 points to the same Purdue team that tied Miami-OH. Doh! The Irish also got taken behind the woodshed by USC in the famous Anthony Davis game, losing 55-24 in Los Angeles. Those are two bad losses, and in reality, the second one means they lose the head-to-head edge against USC.
USC: So, can they top the Nittany Lions' unimpressive schedule? Yes, with a 52% SOS rating, the Trojans claim this McMNC easily. Their only loss was a 15-point road defeat to 6-4-1 Arkansas in the first game of the year. They did tie 7-3-1 California at home (15-15), and their only two wins over ranked teams were the big win over Notre Dame and the Rose Bowl squeaker against Ohio State. They did have three other wins over winning teams (7-4 Pittsburgh with Tony Dorsett, 5-4-2 Stanford, 6-3-2 UCLA). They have the best record of the TUCs, they have the single-best win amongst the TUCs, and they have the best SOS in the bunch, too.
This year, that's not saying much, but in a open contest, the Trojans have the best resume.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Notre Dame
3. Penn State
4. Alabama
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1974
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, -1974
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
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