Thursday, July 17, 2008

1989 McMNC: Miami-FL Hurricanes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 33-25
2. Notre Dame: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 21-6
3. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 41-17
4. Colorado: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 6-21
5. Tennessee: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 31-27
6. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Hall of Fame, 31-14
7. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
8. USC: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 17-10
9. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 25-33
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 31-21

Well, back to chaos, sort of.

Maybe.

Please?

A lot of teams with impressive resumés: Miami, Notre Dame and Tennessee have one loss, while Florida State, Auburn, USC and Illinois have two losses.

Time to shake it out!

Start with the also-rans:

Florida State has two losses to go with their outstanding 61% SOS rating. But one loss was to 5-6 Southern Mississippi, which means no way. The Seminoles beat Miami by 14 points at home in October, but it was too little, too late. Auburn lost to Florida State by eight points on the road, and if FSU is out, then Auburn is out, too. Illinois didn't win the Big Ten; they lost to Michigan by 14 points at home in November, so thanks for playing. USC won the Pac-10, but they lost to Illinois and Notre Dame, so ... not going to happen. Notre Dame lost to Miami by 17 points on the road in the last regular season game of the year (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw1zUKJVEw8), so they're out.

Which leaves us with Tennessee and Miami. The SEC was clusterfuck in 1989: there was a three-way tie for the title, between Alabama, Auburn and the Vols. The Tide beat Tennessee and lost to Auburn; the Tigers beat the Tide and lost to the Vols; Tennessee beat Auburn and lost to Alabama. A perfect circle, people. The Tide ended up going to the Sugar Bowl, however, where they lost to Miami.

So what about the Vols?

Tennessee has a 57% SOS rating, including wins over unranked 8-4 Duke (the Ol' Ball Coach!) at home, #7 Auburn at home, 6-4-1 Akron, unranked 8-4 Mississippi at home, 6-5 Kentucky on the road, and AP #13 Arkansas (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl.

Miami has a 55% SOS rating, including wins over AP #16 Michigan State (8-4) on the road, 6-5 San Jose State at home, AP #17 Pittsburgh (8-3-1) on the road, 6-5-1 San Diego State at home, #2 Notre Dame at home and #9 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

The Vols have a better overall SOS, because Miami played 1-9-1 Cincinnati and some major conference lowlifes (2-9 Wisconsin, 4-7 California, 2-9 Missouri). The worst teams Tennessee played were 1-10 Vanderbilt and 3-7-1 UCLA.

Miami has more impressive wins, however including three wins over ranked teams in virtual road games. That's enough to compensate for the Vols' slight edge in SOS rating.

McMNC Revisions
1. Miami
2. Tennessee
3. Notre Dame
4. Colorado
5. Florida State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Monday, July 14, 2008

1988 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 34-21
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 23-3
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-7
4. Michigan: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 22-14
5. West Virginia: 11-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 21-34
6. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-3
7. USC: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 14-22
8. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-13
9. Clemson: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 13-6
10. Nebraska: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 3-23

Side note: Michigan finished #4, ahead of nine teams with better records. Maybe it's because they were four points away from their own perfect season. Michigan lost to Notre Dame by two points in South Bend, and they lost to Miami by one point in Ann Arbor. The tie was against 6-4-3 Iowa on the road. Yes, the Hawkeyes had THREE ties in 1988, all in Big Ten play, too. Also, note UCLA's finish above USC in the rankings, despite USC's head-to-head win over the Bruins. Bowl wins mean momentum, eh?

Two of the most boring consecutive years in McMNC history, no doubt.

Notre Dame is the obvious choice here: they beat #2 Miami by a point at home, they beat #4 Michigan by two points at home, they beat #7 USC by 17 points on the road in a November "#1 vs. #2" matchup of undefeated teams, and they beat #5 West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl in another matchup of undefeated teams. I mean, seriously: four wins over teams in the Top 7?! And still, their SOS rating was only 54% in 1988, because they played dogs like 3-6-2 Stanford, 3-8 Navy, and 0-11 Rice.

Who else do we even look at? Florida State has a 63% SOS rating, which is outstanding. But they lost by 31 points on the road to Miami to open the season. You can't take a thumping like that and expect to win the McMNC. If they'd lost to Miami by a point (like they did in 1987, for example), maybe the door would be open. But 31 points? Get out of here, Bobby Bowden!

Nothing else to say, except ... Go Irish!

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Miami
3. Florida State
4. West Virginia
5. USC

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Thursday, July 10, 2008

1987 McMNC: Miami-FL Hurricanes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 20-14
2. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-28
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 14-20
4. Syracuse: 11-0-1 -- T, Sugar, 16-16
5. LSU: 10-1-1 -- W, Gator, 30-13
6. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 28-31
7. Auburn: 9-1-2 -- T, Sugar, 16-16
8. Michigan State: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 20-17
9. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 20-16
10. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-10

There really isn't much to discuss here: Miami-FL went undefeated, and they beat #2 Florida State by a point, and they beat #3 Oklahoma by six points. The only team with a shot? Syracuse, left out of the fray despite being undefeated at the end of the regular season. Oklahoma and Miami-FL were chosen to duke it out in the Orange Bowl, while the Orangemen were relegated to the Sugar Bowl. I am not sure what Syracuse's motivation would have been, knowing they could win and still not be the MNC champion.

However, the debate doesn't go very far. Winning your bowl game has been a firm requisite of the McMNC since 1936. Tying your bowl game? Never a consideration. But in the end, Syracuse had a 49% SOS rating to Miami's 55% SOS rating, so there's not even an outside shot. The Orangemen didn't beat a ranked team all season, and their best wins were over unranked 8-4 Penn State and 8-4 Pittsburgh. Miami's best wins? Uh huh.

Case closed, in perhaps the easiest McMNC discussion to date.

McMNC Revisions
1. Miami
2. Syracuse
3. Florida State
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Monday, July 7, 2008

1986 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Penn State: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 14-10
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 10-14
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 42-8
4. Arizona State: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 22-15
5. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 30-15
6. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 16-7
7. Ohio State: 10-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 28-12
8. Michigan: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 15-22
9. Alabama: 10-3-0 -- W, Sun, 28-6
10. LSU: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 15-30

Oh, John Shaffner.

Two notes: the Top 9 all had double-digit wins. Impressive. Also, explain to me HOW Ohio State finished ahead of Michigan in this final poll. They had an inferior record AND they lost to the Wolverines, head-to-head, at home in the regular season. I guess the bowl games really matter, eh?

Surface? It's Penn State. But we must look at other teams out of obligation to the truth. Those teams are Oklahoma and Arizona State (which proved anyone can beat Bo in a bowl game -- even John Cooper).

ASU went 5-1-1 in Pac-10 play, beating AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) and AP #18 Washington (8-3-1) for the league title (both went 5-2-1 in conference games, in yet another example of stupid, unbalanced scheduling). The Sun Devils had a 52% SOS rating, and their only loss was to AP #11 Arizona (9-3) in the last regular season game, on the road in Tucson. That knocked them out of the title hunt at the time. But what really knocks them out of this McMNC discussion is the tie: no, it wasn't against UCLA or Washington. ASU beat both teams during the season. The Sun Devils tied 3-7-1 Washington State at home on September 27, and no one has that kind of game against a losing team and still wins a McMNC.

Oklahoma's one loss was to Miami-FL on the road, also on September 27. Is there some significance there? 9/27 put through Numerology O'McMNC gives us the lucky number ... nine. Does that mean Penn State is dressed to the nines in 1986 for the McMNC? Stay tuned! Well, actually, I have the answer for you right here: the Sooners' SOS rating was 55%, which is pretty good. They beat AP #14 UCLA at home by 35 points to open the season. They beat 6-6 Minnesota in a 63-0 pounding the next week at home. They shutout 6-5 Oklahoma State at home 19-0, they whitewashed 6-5 Iowa State 38-0 on the road, they beat #5 Nebraska by three points on the road, and they pounded AP #15 Arkansas (9-3) in the Orange Bowl. The defense threw five shutouts in 12 games and only gave up 81 points on the season while scoring 508 points themselves. Amazing numbers, but alas, they did lose to a team that Penn State beat in the Fiesta Bowl. They may be the best #2 team ever (since 1983 Nebraska didn't finish #2 in the McMNC rankings). To edge out the Nittany Lions, the Sooners need a ten-point edge in SOS ...

And they won't get it, as Penn State finished with a perfect record and a 54% SOS rating -- not great, but good enough to clinch the deal here. The Nittany Lions beat 6-5 Temple at home by 30 points, they beat AP #19 Boston College (9-3) on the road by 12 points, they beat AP #9 Alabama on the road by 20 points, and they beat #2 Miami-FL in the Fiesta Bowl. Not a great schedule as noted, but it's good enough since they ran the table.

Has Paterno ever properly thanked Vinny T. for this one?!

McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Arizona State
5. Nebraska

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Thursday, July 3, 2008

1985 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 25-10
2. Michigan: 10-1-1 -- W, Fiesta, 27-23
3. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 10-25
4. Tennessee: 9-1-2 -- W, Sugar, 35-7
5. Florida: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
6. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 36-16
7. UCLA: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 45-28
8. Air Force: 12-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 24-16
9. Miami: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-35
10. Iowa: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 28-45

With no BYU in the picture, it gets a lot easier, huh?

Think again.

Oklahoma, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, UCLA and Air Force all could make arguments for their ascension to the throne in 1985. But, of course -- as usual -- there are some issues with a few candidacies.

Michigan didn't win the Big Ten; that honor went to the Hawkeyes who defeated Michigan 12-10 at home mid-season (a #1 vs. #2 matchup at the time). Too bad, because the Wolverines checked in with a 59% SOS rating in 1985. Perhaps if Ronnie Harmon hadn't fumbled away the Rose Bowl, Iowa (55% SOS) would be in this discussion. But I digress ... Florida is ineligible (again) due to probation status. Technically, Florida won the SEC on the basis of their head-to-head win over Tennessee (17-10 win in the Swamp), but since the Vols also matched the Gators' SEC mark with a 5-1 record, we can still consider Tennessee as the SEC champ without overlooking anything other than the cheatenous reality that was Florida and Charley Pell. And finally, Air Force is out, because as much as I admire the cadets, their 46% SOS rating falls short of the others' marks (the war era omission of military academies is long since irrelevant, by the way).

So Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M and UCLA are in the running. In reverse order ...

UCLA: With a 57% SOS, the Bruins had a good year capped off by a big bowl win/upset over Iowa. UCLA had two Pac-10 road losses, though: by seven at unranked 7-5 Washington and by four "at" 6-6 USC. Not very impressive. The tie was on the road at Tennessee, however. Yet by losing to two unranked teams, especially the Trojans in the last regular season game, the Bruins pretty much killed their shot at the McMNC in 1985.

Texas A&M: The Aggies had a great season, marred only by losses to AP #13 Alabama (9-2-1) on the road, 23-10, and to AP #17 Baylor (9-3) on the road, 20-15. These losses to Top 20 teams on the road were counterbalanced by a 56% SOS rating overall, which included beating 7-4 Louisiana-Monroe (or whatever direction they were back then) by 14 points at home, thumping 6-5 Tulsa by 35 points at home, scraping by 6-5 SMU at home by two points, beating AP #12 Arkansas (10-2) at home by four points, thrashing 8-4 Texas at home by 32 points, and trouncing 8-4 Auburn in the Cotton Bowl by 20 points. In the end, they only beat one ranked team all season, and that's just not good enough.

Tennessee: The Vols' 58% SOS rating puts them ahead of both UCLA and A&M, and they also have fewer losses, too, than either of those 1985 also-rans. But two ties?! The aforementioned tie against #7 UCLA isn't a bad thing, nor is the second deadlock: a 6-6 home scrum against AP #19 Georgia Tech (9-2-1). Yes, both ties were at home, but those were Top 20 teams. Their loss was to cheatenous #5 Florida on the road by seven points. Heck, Tennessee was damn close to being perfect in 1985, if you look at it a certain way. They did beat 8-4 Auburn by 18 points at home, they beat AP #13 Alabama (9-2-1) on the road by two points, and they beat #9 Miami-FL by 28 points in the Sugar Bowl. They played a lot of good teams: five opponents won at least nine games, but the Vols only went 2-1-2 in those games. They certainly didn't dominate their schedule, even allowing for the Florida problem.

Oklahoma: The Sooners beat then-#1 Penn State in the Orange Bowl to even open up this debate. They beat 7-5 Minnesota on the road by six points, the beat 8-4 Texas on the road by seven points, they lost by 13 points at home to #9 Miami on October 19 (the game where Troy Aikman broke his lef), shutout 7-5 Colorado at home (31-0), beat AP #11 Nebraska (9-3) by 20 points at home, shutout 8-4 Oklahoma State on the road (13-0), beat 6-5 SMU at home by 22 points, and then beat Penn State in the Orange Bowl by 15 points. Overall, their SOS rating (56%) was dragged down by 1-10 Missouri and 1-10 Kansas State. They were fortunate Miami lost the Sugar Bowl, for otherwise the 'Canes could have stolen this McMNC from them.

In the end, it has to be Oklahoma: they did enough against a good enough schedule to be above all other teams in 1985.

McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee
5. UCLA

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Monday, June 30, 2008

1984 McMNC: BYU Cougars

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. BYU: 13-0-0 -- W, Holiday, 24-17
2. Washington: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 28-17
3. Florida: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
4. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 28-10
5. Boston College: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 45-28
6. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- L, Orange, 17-28
7. Oklahoma State: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 21-14
8. SMU: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 27-20
9. UCLA: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 39-37
10. USC: 9-3-0 -- W, Rose, 20-17

Well, this is a weird season (aren't they all?). It's really a simple matter of BYU and Washington here. We've tracked BYU's ascent up the AP poll recently, and they finally reached the summit here in 1984.

The problem is this: Washington didn't win its conference in 1984. The Huskies finished second to USC, losing the head-to-head matchup by nine points on the road on November 10 -- thus losing the Pac-10 crown to the Trojans and eliminating themselves from McMNC contention. Same with Nebraska (lost the Big 8 crown to Oklahoma the same way). Florida? Cheatenous. Too bad, because their 56% SOS rating would have been enough (perhaps) to dethrone the Cougars (assuming the Gators would have won a bowl game to go 10-1-1). Oklahoma State falls the same way Nebraska did; SMU didn't win the SWC (losing the head-to-head tiebreak to Houston). As the Pac-10 champ, USC has three losses.

Boston College, even with its two losses, is really the only team we can consider, even partially, as an alternative to BYU. Why? A 60% SOS rating, coupled with a one-point road loss to UPI #18 West Virginia (8-4) and a seven-point road loss to 6-5 Penn State. At least those are decent losses (although hardly "good" losses). The Eagles did beat 6-5 Temple at home by 14 points, as well as 7-3 Rutgers at home by 12 points. Not exactly "good" wins, though, eh? They beat 8-3-1 Army by 14 points at home, they beat 6-5 Syracuse at home by eight points, and they beat AP #18 Miami-FL on the road by two points (you might remember that game -- http://youtube.com/watch?v=r-qkpsygNYo). Finally, they beat 8-3 Holy Cross on the road by 35 points, and they beat 7-5 Houston, the SWC "champ", in the Cotton Bowl. Not exactly a barn-burning schedule: they beat one ranked team, and even that was a friggin' miracle. This is perhaps the softest "good" schedule we've seen yet in an McMNC analysis.

But consider the other option here is BYU. Surely, their schedule probably was just as squishy: the Cougars' SOS rating was a mere 42% in 1984. They did try, however, to schedule good teams. They traveled to Pittsburgh, but the Panthers were only 3-7-1 in 1984. BYU beat by six points. The Cougars beat 6-5 Tulsa by 23 points at home, they beat 7-4 Hawaii by five points on the road, they beat 8-4 Air Force by five points on the road, and they beat 6-5-1 Utah on the road by ten points. Those were the only four winning teams BYU faced all year; none of them were from a major conference, and even the Cougars' Holiday Bowl opponent finished a mere 6-6 (Michigan). In addition to the Wolverines, the only major-conference opponent BYU faced all season was 5-6 Baylor: the Cougars beat them 47-13 in Provo.

The reality is this: Boston College didn't play a good enough schedule or beat enough good teams to overcome their two losses. And BYU didn't play a very good schedule, either, but the chips fell just right for the Cougars in 1984: no major-conference team won its conference, won its bowl game AND finished with less than three losses.

BYU wins the 1984 McMNC by default, basically.

McMNC Revisions
1. BYU
2. Washington
3. Boston College
4. Nebraska
5. Oklahoma State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Thursday, June 26, 2008

1983 McMNC: Auburn Tigers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-30
2. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 30-31
3. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 9-7
4. Georgia: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 10-9
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 9-10
6. Florida: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 14-6
7. BYU: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 21-17
8. Michigan: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-9
9. Ohio State: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-23
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 9-45

This was a big year, and in the end, the voters were swayed by the on-field theatrics of the moment. However, in anointing Miami-FL the AP title, the voters overlooked some good teams. Auburn, Georgia and BYU also deserve consideration in this crazy year of bowl upsets by the smallest margins possible.

Going into the bowls, #1 Nebraska and #2 Texas looked strong. They both lost by a point, including Nebraska's much-ballyhooed decision to go for the win instead of the tie and the title.

Georgia isn't in this discussion, however, because they lost to Auburn head-to-head. Although it's worth pointing out that the SEC finally played a balanced schedule in 1983, with all teams playing six conference games.

Let's start with Brigham Young, however. Their rise to respectability continued in 1983, as they finished in the Top 10 finally. Their one loss was a four-point road defeat at 7-4-1 Baylor, the third-place SWC team in 1983. It was their first game of the year, and they ran the table from there on out. The Cougars beat 8-3 Bowling Green by 35 points at home, they beat AP #13 Air Force (10-2) by 18 points on the road, and they beat AP #17 and eventual Rose Bowl champion UCLA (7-4-1) by two points in Los Angeles. Heck, via transitive scores, that means BYU was better than the whole Big Ten, right? Maybe that's why they finished seventh in the AP poll ahead of three Big Ten teams. BYU also beat 7-5 Wyoming on the road by 31 points, and they beat 7-5 Missouri in the Holiday Bowl. They beat five winning teams, they beat two ranked teams, and they only lost on the road to a winning team by a few points. Their SOS rating for the season was 51%, which is consistent with the previous seasons. It's interesting to see how this sets up BYU for 1984, but more on that later. Regardless, it's a solid season for the Cougars with wins over good/ranked teams.

Auburn won the SEC with a perfect 6-0 mark, and their only loss was an early 13-point defeat at home to #5 Texas on September 17. They won their last ten games of the season to finish 11-1. Along the way, they beat 7-4 Southern Mississippi by 21 points at home, they beat unranked 9-3 Tennessee on the road by 23 points, they beat 7-5 Florida State at home by three points, they beat 6-5-1 Kentucky by 28 points on the road, they beat #6 Florida at home by seven points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 12 points, they beat #4 Georgia on the road by six points, they beat AP #15 Alabama (8-4) at home by three points, and they beat #8 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Overall, they played ten winning teams in 1983, and they beat NINE of them. They're lucky in the sense their loss to Texas was nullified by the 'Horns losing the Cotton Bowl. After all, you just can't have a team losing its bowl game at the top of the polls (otherwise, Nebraska would have stayed #1 despite its loss to Miami-FL, right?). But this schedule amounts to an incredible 65% SOS rating, one of the better seasons we've seen in this whole McMNC analysis, for sure.

That leaves us with the Hurricanes, who benefited from a home-field advantage in the Orange Bowl stunner. Miami-FL also got lucky, like Auburn, in that their one loss came early to a highly-ranked team that had no chance at the title. Florida beat Miami in the Swamp, by 25 points, on September 3. After that, the 'Canes shutout 7-5 Notre Dame 20-0 at home, they beat AP #16 West Virginia (9-3) by 17 points at home, they beat AP #20 East Carolina by five points at home, they beat 7-5 Florida State on the road by one point, and they won the Orange Bowl by a point over then-#1 Nebraska. They played six winning teams, winning five of the games. They beat three ranked teams on the season, and their SOS rating was a solid 53% in 1983.

In the end, though, it just isn't possible to overlook the fact Auburn played a significantly harder schedule while also losing only one game -- to a better team than the 'Canes lost to in 1983. In the end, voters were probably swayed by the drama of the Orange Bowl, and they lost sight of the fact Auburn was a significantly better team in 1983.

Therefore, the Tigers get the McMNC for 1983, and a 25-year wrong is finally righted.

McMNC Revisions
1. Auburn
2. Miami-FL
3. Nebraska
4. Texas
5. BYU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977