2008 McMNC: Utah Utes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Florida: 13-1 -- W, BCS, 24-14
2. Utah: 13-0 -- W, Sugar, 31-17
3. USC: 12-1 -- W, Rose, 38-24
4. Texas: 12-1 -- W, Fiesta, 24-21
5. Oklahoma: 12-2 -- L, BCS, 14-24
6. Alabama: 12-2 -- L, Sugar, 17-31
7. TCU: 11-2 -- W, Poinsetta, 17-16
8. Penn State: 11-2 -- L, Rose, 24-38
9. Ohio State: 10-3 -- L, Fiesta, 21-24
10. Oregon: 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 42-31

So, this was yet another year of the BCS ridiculousness. After USC's road loss to Oregon State in their third game, the Trojans were summarily dismissed as contenders for the BCS title game. Meanwhile, the same week, Florida lost at home to Mississippi and was NOT summarily dismissed from the title game discussion.

Therein lies the problem. Both Oregon State and Mississippi finished 9-4, so there was no shame in either loss. But the powers-that-be arbitrarily decided that USC's ROAD loss eliminated the Trojans, while the Gators' HOME loss did not eliminate Florida. Go figure.

In the end, there were nine teams with no losses or one loss at the end of the regular season, and why the BCS arbitrarily chose Oklahoma and Florida to play for the "title" was just as contrived as the above "evaluation" of USC and Florida after their early losses.

Even more befuddling was the Big XII South this year, which left us with 11-1 teams Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in a roundabout tie. Texas beat Oklahoma by ten points on a neutral field, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma by five points at home on a last-second TD, and Oklahoma annihilated Texas Tech by 40+ points at home. The tiebreak? The BCS formula. Voters screwed that one up, too, ignoring the Longhorns' neutral site victory and awarding the Sooners for running up the score at home.

The BCS doesn't use computer formulas that use "margin of victory", though. Uh huh.

In the end, however, we were left with some interesting bowl matchups which would eliminate some of the TUCs for 2008: USC vs. Penn State, Florida vs. Oklahoma, Alabama vs. Utah. That would reduce six TUCs to just three. Other games featuring TUCs were TCU vs. Boise State, Mississippi vs. Texas Tech and Texas vs. Ohio State.

After the bowl games, we were really left with only four legitimate teams as potential McMNCs: 13-0 Utah, 13-1 Florida, 12-1 USC and 12-1 Texas. That takes care of the bowl-game criterion: you must win the bowl game.

Check.

Now, you must also win your conference. That's been a staple here since 1936. But did Texas win their conference? In essence, yes, they did. They finished in a tie that could not be broken, due to the roundabout trio of H2H results noted above. Since the tiebreak that was used had nothing to do with on-the-field results, Oklahoma was chosen as the "Big XII South Champion". The Sooners proceeded to beat Missouri in the Big XII title game. Texas also beat Missouri during the regular season (56-31), so the Longhorns get the nod there, too. And, they beat the Sooners, 45-35, at a neutral site during the regular season. So for all intents and purposes, the Longhorns were virtual Big XII champions.

So, how to split hairs between Utah, Florida, USC and Texas?

First, anyone who tries to claim that one team is definitively better than the others is idiotic. Without H2H results, we know nothing. All we can do is speculate according to our biases. Smarter people try to remove their biases as best possible, but even in the choice of the "objective", we are being subjective. Therefore, all anyone can do is present what they think, support it and leave it to the audience to decide on their own.

The BCS, however, is a joke. This has been clear for three years now, if not longer. But these past three seasons represent a nadir in the BCS's integrity, as we've seen ridiculous lobbying, media interference and corrupt financial influence deciding matters that can only be decided on the field. If anyone really thinks the BCS "works", then they're living in a world no one else inhabits except those at Jonestown.

Let's look at the TUCs, however:

1) Utah -- The only undefeated team in the FBS this year, the Utes played a schedule with a base SOS of 52%. That's on the good side, of course, and well in-line with past schedules of McMNC winners. They 8-5 Air Force on the road by seven points, they beat 9-4 Weber State at home by 16 points, they beat 9-4 Oregon State at home by three points, they beat 7-6 Colorado State by 33 points at home, they beat 11-2 TCU at home by three points, they beat 10-3 BYU at home by 24 points, and they beat 12-2 Alabama on the road in the Sugar Bowl by 14 points.

The Utes can't help the conference they're in -- that cannot be a requisite for winning a title. The OOC slate for Utah included 3-9 Michigan, 3-9 Utah State (a regional "rival"), 9-4 Weber State (another regional "rival"), and 9-4 Oregon State. Utah split its four OOC games between BCS big boys and regional punching bags. No one knew Michigan would be 3-9 when the season began, so that opening win over the Wolverines was huge. And no one knew Michigan would 3-9 when that game was scheduled years ago. Utah did enough to satiate its schedule strength.

Plus, they beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Convincingly. In fact, of the four TUCs, Utah had the second-best bowl win: they beat a 12-1 team in its own backyard handily, jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first quarter, never surrendering the lead and never giving The Tide a chance to even tie the game after midway through the first quarter. They dominated Alabama like no other team had all year, including Florida.

Utah is for real. They went undefeated. They won a road bowl game, basically, and they did it with ease. They beat six bowl teams, and they beat seven teams with winning records. There was nothing "easy" about Utah's schedule.

2) Florida -- The Gators won the SEC, and their SOS was 59%. At first glance, that's certainly not enough to overcome the loss as traditionally measured in these McMNC analyses. Plus, if you remove the conference title game, it falls to 56%. The conference title games, like the schedules, are not within the players' control, and to continue to use them as examples of superiority is pure circular logic. In any case, Florida played ten winnings teams in 2008 (although four of them were merely 7-6, thanks to favorable OOC scheduling). Impressive, to be sure, but not as much as the experts would have you believe.

Florida's bowl win, a 24-14 win over 12-2 Oklahoma, was tied at 14 in the middle of the fourth quarter. That's certainly not a dominating win. A clutch win, but not dominating. Florida's one loss came at home to 9-4 Mississippi in the Gators' fourth game of the season.

The Gators' OOC slate? 7-7 Hawai'i, 7-6 Miami, 4-8 The Citadel, and 9-4 Florida State. Making the Rainbow Warriors travel east isn't impressive; it's easy pickings. Scheduling The Citadel is just inexcusable. Miami-FL and FSU are regional rivals, so like Utah, Florida split its OOC slate with the good and the bad.

3) USC -- The Trojans went 12-1 while winning the Pac-10 for the seventh straight season. This was also USC's seventh-straight season with at least 11 wins. They played in their seventh-straight BCS bowl game. No other program in the country can even come close to matching that current streak of dominance.

But this is about 2008 alone. The Trojans went 12-1 against an SOS of 52%. Soft schedule? I don't think so. Also, if you remove doormats Washington and Washington State, teams USC had to play in their full conference round-robin schedule, that SOS rises to 56%.

USC had the most impressive bowl win of the season, too: a 38-24 thrashing of 11-2 Penn State, where it was 31-7 at halftime. Pete Carroll doesn't run up the score; he put his team on cruise control in the second half. No other TUC had a more impressive 30 minutes of bowl domination than USC, making the other 30 minutes irrelevant.

The Trojans' OOC slate? 5-7 Virginia, 10-3 Ohio State, 7-6 Notre Dame. All FBS teams. Easily, they have the best OOC scheduling -- the part the school DOES control -- of any TUC. In this decade, Virginia has had five winning seasons, by the way. Ohio State and Notre Dame are perennial contenders, if not outright powerhouses. There were no creampuffs on this schedule, and the Trojans can't help it if two league teams had their worst seasons in years this time around.

Even with those duds on the schedule, USC played seven winning teams in 2008.

4) Texas -- The Longhorns were defacto Big XII champs, as noted above. Their SOS rating? 60&, by far the best of the one-loss teams, and without a conference title game to artificially inflate the SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to 11-2 Texas Tech, by far the best loss of the one-loss bunch. However, Texas also had the weakest bowl win of the bunch, scrapping out a 24-21 win over 10-3 Ohio State.

The OOC slate for Texas? 7-6 Florida Atlantic, 5-7 UTEP (a regional "rival"), 10-3 Rice (another regional "rival"), and 5-7 Arkansas (a third regional "rival"). Interesting mix, as three teams are traditional foes and one was a random. Rice had a good season, and Arkansas is an FBS team -- as is FAU. Not great, but an average OOC slate.

So that's the skinny on the four teams. First task is to identify the best one-loss team of the bunch to face the Utes, because no one has the SOS rating to overcome the Utes' perfect season.

Hence, Florida vs. USC vs. Texas: Texas has the best schedule (60%-59% over Florida). USC has the best bowl win (easily, since the other two had to fight in the fourth quarter to win). USC has the best OOC slate (duh). Texas has the best wins (four wins over 10-win teams). Florida has the worst loss (the only road loss).

Florida is out, simply because they didn't win any categories, and they lost one, to boot.

So we're left with USC and Texas. The Longhorns have the SOS edge, USC has the better bowl win. USC has the better OOC slate, Texas has the best wins. USC has the worst loss.

Which means Texas is really the best of the one-loss teams.

So it comes down to Texas vs. Utah for the 2008 McMNC:

Utah didn't lose; Texas did. The Longhorns' SOS rating is eight points higher than Utah's, but we've seen similar gaps in the past. The Longhorns' edge in SOS can't overcome the one loss: the last-second TD from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree truly doomed Texas in 2008.

Not much else to say, but perfect records will almost always defeat blemished records. That's why they play the games, historically and traditionally.

McMNC Revisions
1. Utah
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Florida

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993