2018 McMNC: Clemson Tigers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Clemson (15-0): Won CFP Bowl, 44-16
2. Alabama (14-1): Lost CFP Bowl, 16-44
3. Ohio State (13-1): Won Rose Bowl, 28-23
4. Oklahoma (12-2): Lost Orange Bowl, 34-45
5. Notre Dame (12-1): Lost Cotton Bowl, 30-3
6. LSU (10-3): Won Fiesta Bowl, 40-32
7. (tie) Georgia (11-3): Lost Sugar Bowl, 21-28
7. (tie) Florida (10-3): Won Peach Bowl, 41-15
9. Texas (10-4): Won Sugar Bowl, 28-21
10. Washington State (11-2): Won Alamo Bowl, 28-26

It is hard to argue against Clemson here as the national champion, considering the blowout scores from the "title game" and the CFP semifinal games. However, we must play devil's advocate here a little bit. Clearly, Notre Dame did not belong in the CFP, as its 27-point loss suggests. Would Ohio State have given Clemson a better game there? Most probably. 

The Buckeyes cruised in the Rose Bowl, giving up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a Rose Bowl game they led 28-3 with less than 13 minutes to go. Properly focused, perhaps Ohio State challenges Clemson enough to slow them down, to the point that maybe Alabama can beat the Tigers. Or, if Ohio State had played the Crimson Tide in the semifinals instead and won, then maybe the title game is closer and more up-for-grabs.

That is the problem here:  The wrong four teams may have been chosen for the CFP, while Clemson's dominance of the "tournament" shows the Tigers were clearly the best team in this iteration of the CFP, changing the teams changes the contingency of the outcome(s).

An undefeated UCF team was once again shut out of the CFP, although in losing their starting QB to injury in the conference title game, UCF still gave LSU a good fight in the Fiesta Bowl. We are not arguing for UCF's inclusion here this year, although we would have if their QB had been healthy.

Again, this is the issue with a four-team playoff: The debates should be about the last few teams admitted to a 16-team tourney, not a four-team event. It is less likely a 16-seed team is going to win than a 4-seed team, and who knows if Clemson wins so easily—or at all—if Ohio State and/or a team like Army is invited to a championship tournament. The Black Knights won their bowl game by a 70-14 score, and it would have been fun to see them take on the big boys. Remember, Army lost on the road in overtime to the Sooners this year. Something to think about in revising the teams chosen for this "Final Four" mess.

Anyway, the only teams under consideration this year are Clemson and Ohio State. They won their conferences and their bowl games. Army's two losses keep it out of the debate, although not by much. According to this simple-rating system for schedule strength, the Tigers played a better schedule than the Buckeyes, anyway. Case closed.

Congrats to Clemson, again.

McMNC Revision:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Notre Dame
5. (tie) Army & Oklahoma

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012, =2014
UCF: +2017
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981, =2016, =2018
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012, =2015, -2017