1. Alabama (12-1): Won BCS Bowl, 21-0
2. LSU (13-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 0-21
3. Oklahoma State (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 41-38
4. Oregon (12-2): Won Rose Bowl, 45-38
5. Arkansas (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 29-16
6. USC (10-2): No bowl
7. Stanford (11-2): Lost Fiesta Bowl, 38-41
8. Boise State (12-1): Won Las Vegas Bowl, 56-24
9. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 30-13
10. Wisconsin (11-3): Lost Rose Bowl, 38-45
Two of the steadfast rules I've always used in this analysis are basic: you have to win your conference, and you have to win your bowl game. In reviewing all MNCs since 1936 via analyzing the Associated Press poll, this has never changed. And this sixth laughable year in a row of BCS garbage has made my 2011 pick very easy.
Alabama didn't win its conference. LSU didn't win its bowl game.
See ya later, poseurs.
Oklahoma State did both, and the BCS shot itself in the foot as it continued to reveal its ineptitude and silliness in failing to determine a legitimate champion for the 11th time in 14 years. Why people claim with a straight face that "it's the best system we have" is a mystery only to those who live six feet under.
So the list of TUCs for the McMNC in 2011 is a very short one:
- Oklahoma State
- TCU
- Oregon
- West Virginia
Start from the bottom of this list -- West Virginia had a fine season, but its three losses put it beyond the reach of catching Oklahoma State in terms of a potential SOS boost. One of my other steadfast rules has been that an SOS rating edge of 10%+ can compensate for an extra loss, and there's no way anyone has a 20% SOS rating edge on the Cowboys -- who probably played the toughest schedule in the country on their way to winning the toughest conference in the country this year. So the Mountaineers are out, even though that 37-point win over ACC champion Clemson in the Orange Bowl will always be something to hang a hat on with posterity.
Oregon won its first Rose Bowl since 1917 -- yes, shocking to know the Ducks even made the Rose Bowl in the early days, huh? -- but losing to LSU on the road and USC at home hurt it overall. If the Ducks had beaten USC, they were the team that probably deserved more of a rematch with LSU than Alabama did, but that's irrelevant. The Ducks beat a lot of bowl teams in 2011, including BCS qualifiers Stanford and Wisconsin. But they had two losses, which they can't escape in the end. The McMNC has only ever gone to two teams with two losses (1965 UCLA, 2007 West Virginia), and those were extreme circumstances. No such circumstances exist in 2011, thanks to the Fiesta Bowl result.
TCU -- the defending McMNC, I might add -- also had two losses. The Horned Frogs lost to Baylor and SMU by October 1, but they rebounded to win the Mountain West and the Poinsettia Bowl. Overall, their schedule was very weak in comparison to Oregon's schedule strength, however -- beating Louisiana Tech in a bowl game doesn't rate beating Wisconsin in a bowl game, of course. While Oregon beat two BCS teams, the best win TCU posted was over Boise State. So in the comparison of two-loss teams, Oregon has the edge on TCU.
Oklahoma State finished with one loss -- the road OT defeat to Iowa State that cost the Cowboys a spot in the alleged title game -- while beating six bowl teams in its own conference, including the Heisman Trophy winner (by 35 points, no less). According to Jeff Sagarin's pre-bowl rankings, they beat eight teams ranked in the Top 30 this year. No other team in the country -- including "mighty" LSU or "historic" Alabama -- beat more than six. Arguably, they played the toughest schedule in the country, while also winning their conference AND their bowl game (an OT win over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl -- which really was the saving grace for this whole post ...).
Oregon's schedule can't even come close to surpassing Oklahoma State's schedule, and thus, this decision was a very easy one.
McMNC Revision:
1. Oklahoma State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. West Virginia
5. (tie) LSU, Alabama
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
