AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. BYU: 13-0-0 -- W, Holiday, 24-17
2. Washington: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 28-17
3. Florida: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
4. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 28-10
5. Boston College: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 45-28
6. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- L, Orange, 17-28
7. Oklahoma State: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 21-14
8. SMU: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 27-20
9. UCLA: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 39-37
10. USC: 9-3-0 -- W, Rose, 20-17
Well, this is a weird season (aren't they all?). It's really a simple matter of BYU and Washington here. We've tracked BYU's ascent up the AP poll recently, and they finally reached the summit here in 1984.
The problem is this: Washington didn't win its conference in 1984. The Huskies finished second to USC, losing the head-to-head matchup by nine points on the road on November 10 -- thus losing the Pac-10 crown to the Trojans and eliminating themselves from McMNC contention. Same with Nebraska (lost the Big 8 crown to Oklahoma the same way). Florida? Cheatenous. Too bad, because their 56% SOS rating would have been enough (perhaps) to dethrone the Cougars (assuming the Gators would have won a bowl game to go 10-1-1). Oklahoma State falls the same way Nebraska did; SMU didn't win the SWC (losing the head-to-head tiebreak to Houston). As the Pac-10 champ, USC has three losses.
Boston College, even with its two losses, is really the only team we can consider, even partially, as an alternative to BYU. Why? A 60% SOS rating, coupled with a one-point road loss to UPI #18 West Virginia (8-4) and a seven-point road loss to 6-5 Penn State. At least those are decent losses (although hardly "good" losses). The Eagles did beat 6-5 Temple at home by 14 points, as well as 7-3 Rutgers at home by 12 points. Not exactly "good" wins, though, eh? They beat 8-3-1 Army by 14 points at home, they beat 6-5 Syracuse at home by eight points, and they beat AP #18 Miami-FL on the road by two points (you might remember that game -- http://youtube.com/watch?v=r-qkpsygNYo). Finally, they beat 8-3 Holy Cross on the road by 35 points, and they beat 7-5 Houston, the SWC "champ", in the Cotton Bowl. Not exactly a barn-burning schedule: they beat one ranked team, and even that was a friggin' miracle. This is perhaps the softest "good" schedule we've seen yet in an McMNC analysis.
But consider the other option here is BYU. Surely, their schedule probably was just as squishy: the Cougars' SOS rating was a mere 42% in 1984. They did try, however, to schedule good teams. They traveled to Pittsburgh, but the Panthers were only 3-7-1 in 1984. BYU beat by six points. The Cougars beat 6-5 Tulsa by 23 points at home, they beat 7-4 Hawaii by five points on the road, they beat 8-4 Air Force by five points on the road, and they beat 6-5-1 Utah on the road by ten points. Those were the only four winning teams BYU faced all year; none of them were from a major conference, and even the Cougars' Holiday Bowl opponent finished a mere 6-6 (Michigan). In addition to the Wolverines, the only major-conference opponent BYU faced all season was 5-6 Baylor: the Cougars beat them 47-13 in Provo.
The reality is this: Boston College didn't play a good enough schedule or beat enough good teams to overcome their two losses. And BYU didn't play a very good schedule, either, but the chips fell just right for the Cougars in 1984: no major-conference team won its conference, won its bowl game AND finished with less than three losses.
BYU wins the 1984 McMNC by default, basically.
McMNC Revisions
1. BYU
2. Washington
3. Boston College
4. Nebraska
5. Oklahoma State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 30, 2008
Thursday, June 26, 2008
1983 McMNC: Auburn Tigers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-30
2. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 30-31
3. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 9-7
4. Georgia: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 10-9
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 9-10
6. Florida: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 14-6
7. BYU: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 21-17
8. Michigan: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-9
9. Ohio State: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-23
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 9-45
This was a big year, and in the end, the voters were swayed by the on-field theatrics of the moment. However, in anointing Miami-FL the AP title, the voters overlooked some good teams. Auburn, Georgia and BYU also deserve consideration in this crazy year of bowl upsets by the smallest margins possible.
Going into the bowls, #1 Nebraska and #2 Texas looked strong. They both lost by a point, including Nebraska's much-ballyhooed decision to go for the win instead of the tie and the title.
Georgia isn't in this discussion, however, because they lost to Auburn head-to-head. Although it's worth pointing out that the SEC finally played a balanced schedule in 1983, with all teams playing six conference games.
Let's start with Brigham Young, however. Their rise to respectability continued in 1983, as they finished in the Top 10 finally. Their one loss was a four-point road defeat at 7-4-1 Baylor, the third-place SWC team in 1983. It was their first game of the year, and they ran the table from there on out. The Cougars beat 8-3 Bowling Green by 35 points at home, they beat AP #13 Air Force (10-2) by 18 points on the road, and they beat AP #17 and eventual Rose Bowl champion UCLA (7-4-1) by two points in Los Angeles. Heck, via transitive scores, that means BYU was better than the whole Big Ten, right? Maybe that's why they finished seventh in the AP poll ahead of three Big Ten teams. BYU also beat 7-5 Wyoming on the road by 31 points, and they beat 7-5 Missouri in the Holiday Bowl. They beat five winning teams, they beat two ranked teams, and they only lost on the road to a winning team by a few points. Their SOS rating for the season was 51%, which is consistent with the previous seasons. It's interesting to see how this sets up BYU for 1984, but more on that later. Regardless, it's a solid season for the Cougars with wins over good/ranked teams.
Auburn won the SEC with a perfect 6-0 mark, and their only loss was an early 13-point defeat at home to #5 Texas on September 17. They won their last ten games of the season to finish 11-1. Along the way, they beat 7-4 Southern Mississippi by 21 points at home, they beat unranked 9-3 Tennessee on the road by 23 points, they beat 7-5 Florida State at home by three points, they beat 6-5-1 Kentucky by 28 points on the road, they beat #6 Florida at home by seven points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 12 points, they beat #4 Georgia on the road by six points, they beat AP #15 Alabama (8-4) at home by three points, and they beat #8 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Overall, they played ten winning teams in 1983, and they beat NINE of them. They're lucky in the sense their loss to Texas was nullified by the 'Horns losing the Cotton Bowl. After all, you just can't have a team losing its bowl game at the top of the polls (otherwise, Nebraska would have stayed #1 despite its loss to Miami-FL, right?). But this schedule amounts to an incredible 65% SOS rating, one of the better seasons we've seen in this whole McMNC analysis, for sure.
That leaves us with the Hurricanes, who benefited from a home-field advantage in the Orange Bowl stunner. Miami-FL also got lucky, like Auburn, in that their one loss came early to a highly-ranked team that had no chance at the title. Florida beat Miami in the Swamp, by 25 points, on September 3. After that, the 'Canes shutout 7-5 Notre Dame 20-0 at home, they beat AP #16 West Virginia (9-3) by 17 points at home, they beat AP #20 East Carolina by five points at home, they beat 7-5 Florida State on the road by one point, and they won the Orange Bowl by a point over then-#1 Nebraska. They played six winning teams, winning five of the games. They beat three ranked teams on the season, and their SOS rating was a solid 53% in 1983.
In the end, though, it just isn't possible to overlook the fact Auburn played a significantly harder schedule while also losing only one game -- to a better team than the 'Canes lost to in 1983. In the end, voters were probably swayed by the drama of the Orange Bowl, and they lost sight of the fact Auburn was a significantly better team in 1983.
Therefore, the Tigers get the McMNC for 1983, and a 25-year wrong is finally righted.
McMNC Revisions
1. Auburn
2. Miami-FL
3. Nebraska
4. Texas
5. BYU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-30
2. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 30-31
3. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 9-7
4. Georgia: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 10-9
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 9-10
6. Florida: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 14-6
7. BYU: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 21-17
8. Michigan: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-9
9. Ohio State: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-23
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 9-45
This was a big year, and in the end, the voters were swayed by the on-field theatrics of the moment. However, in anointing Miami-FL the AP title, the voters overlooked some good teams. Auburn, Georgia and BYU also deserve consideration in this crazy year of bowl upsets by the smallest margins possible.
Going into the bowls, #1 Nebraska and #2 Texas looked strong. They both lost by a point, including Nebraska's much-ballyhooed decision to go for the win instead of the tie and the title.
Georgia isn't in this discussion, however, because they lost to Auburn head-to-head. Although it's worth pointing out that the SEC finally played a balanced schedule in 1983, with all teams playing six conference games.
Let's start with Brigham Young, however. Their rise to respectability continued in 1983, as they finished in the Top 10 finally. Their one loss was a four-point road defeat at 7-4-1 Baylor, the third-place SWC team in 1983. It was their first game of the year, and they ran the table from there on out. The Cougars beat 8-3 Bowling Green by 35 points at home, they beat AP #13 Air Force (10-2) by 18 points on the road, and they beat AP #17 and eventual Rose Bowl champion UCLA (7-4-1) by two points in Los Angeles. Heck, via transitive scores, that means BYU was better than the whole Big Ten, right? Maybe that's why they finished seventh in the AP poll ahead of three Big Ten teams. BYU also beat 7-5 Wyoming on the road by 31 points, and they beat 7-5 Missouri in the Holiday Bowl. They beat five winning teams, they beat two ranked teams, and they only lost on the road to a winning team by a few points. Their SOS rating for the season was 51%, which is consistent with the previous seasons. It's interesting to see how this sets up BYU for 1984, but more on that later. Regardless, it's a solid season for the Cougars with wins over good/ranked teams.
Auburn won the SEC with a perfect 6-0 mark, and their only loss was an early 13-point defeat at home to #5 Texas on September 17. They won their last ten games of the season to finish 11-1. Along the way, they beat 7-4 Southern Mississippi by 21 points at home, they beat unranked 9-3 Tennessee on the road by 23 points, they beat 7-5 Florida State at home by three points, they beat 6-5-1 Kentucky by 28 points on the road, they beat #6 Florida at home by seven points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 12 points, they beat #4 Georgia on the road by six points, they beat AP #15 Alabama (8-4) at home by three points, and they beat #8 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Overall, they played ten winning teams in 1983, and they beat NINE of them. They're lucky in the sense their loss to Texas was nullified by the 'Horns losing the Cotton Bowl. After all, you just can't have a team losing its bowl game at the top of the polls (otherwise, Nebraska would have stayed #1 despite its loss to Miami-FL, right?). But this schedule amounts to an incredible 65% SOS rating, one of the better seasons we've seen in this whole McMNC analysis, for sure.
That leaves us with the Hurricanes, who benefited from a home-field advantage in the Orange Bowl stunner. Miami-FL also got lucky, like Auburn, in that their one loss came early to a highly-ranked team that had no chance at the title. Florida beat Miami in the Swamp, by 25 points, on September 3. After that, the 'Canes shutout 7-5 Notre Dame 20-0 at home, they beat AP #16 West Virginia (9-3) by 17 points at home, they beat AP #20 East Carolina by five points at home, they beat 7-5 Florida State on the road by one point, and they won the Orange Bowl by a point over then-#1 Nebraska. They played six winning teams, winning five of the games. They beat three ranked teams on the season, and their SOS rating was a solid 53% in 1983.
In the end, though, it just isn't possible to overlook the fact Auburn played a significantly harder schedule while also losing only one game -- to a better team than the 'Canes lost to in 1983. In the end, voters were probably swayed by the drama of the Orange Bowl, and they lost sight of the fact Auburn was a significantly better team in 1983.
Therefore, the Tigers get the McMNC for 1983, and a 25-year wrong is finally righted.
McMNC Revisions
1. Auburn
2. Miami-FL
3. Nebraska
4. Texas
5. BYU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 23, 2008
1982 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-23
2. SMU: 11-0-1 -- W, Cotton, 7-3
3. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 21-20
4. Georgia: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 23-27
5. UCLA: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 24-14
6. Arizona State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 32-21
7. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 21-20
8. Clemson: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
9. Arkansas: 9-2-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 28-24
10. LSU: 8-3-1 -- L, Orange, 20-21
So, here we are in another clusterf**k season. Surprise.
Penn State, SMU, Nebraska, UCLA, Arizona State and Washington qualify as our TUCs for the 1982 McMNC. However, since three teams reside in the same conference, that tie is broken easily before we even get started: UCLA wins the conference title (although, like the SEC, the Pac-10 is idiotic when it comes to balanced schedules!), despite losing the head-to-head matchup against Washington. Go figure: UCLA was 5-1-1 in conference play, while the Huskies were 6-2 in league play. Doh!
So, that leave sus with Penn State, SMU, Nebraska and UCLA. Now, SMU was on probation in 1981, and in 1985, they would receive another three years' probation. In 1986, they'd get caught doing something illegal AGAIN and face the death penalty. How does this impact the 1982 team? They had a new coach who was innocent of the charges brought resulting in the 1981 probation, but this coach was probably at the center of the 1985 charges, too. All in all, SMU is just too problematic to consider for its cheatenous patterns. They're out.
Down to three teams (Penn State, Nebraska and UCLA), there is one more tie to break: Nebraska lost at Penn State on September 23rd by three points. That gives the Nittany Lions a head-to-head edge over the 'Huskers and eliminates them.
So we're now down to two teams: Penn State and UCLA. Phew, that was easy!
UCLA has an SOS rating of 55%, and they have a loss and a tie. The loss was a three-point setback on the road at #7 Washington. Surely, this is not a bad loss. However, the Bruins also have a tie: at home to unranked 6-4-1 Arizona (24-24). For what it is worth, the Wildcats had a three-point win at 6-4-1 Notre Dame and ten-point home win over #6 Arizona State that kept the Sun Devils from the Rose Bowl. They were a decent team. The Bruins also had consecutive road wins over unranked 7-5 Wisconsin (51-26) and UPI #15 Michigan (8-4) by a 31-27 score in September, while beating 7-4 California on the road by 16 points, AP #15 USC by a point at "home" and Michigan once again in the Rose Bowl. They had seven games against winning teams and went 5-1-1. A good schedule, to be sure, even with the two blemishes.
Penn State, however, did its seemingly-usual number with a 63% SOS rating. Their one loss was a 21-point road setback at UPI #17 Alabama (8-4). Can a team that loses a game by 20 points still win the McMNC? The Nittany Lions had wins over AP #20 Maryland (8-4) at home by eight points, the three-point win over #3 Nebraska at home, a 24-0 win over AP #19 West Virginia (9-3) on the road, a 35-point win over unranked 8-3-1 Boston College on the road, a 54-0 win over unranked 6-5 North Carolina State, a ten-point road win over Notre Dame, a nine-point win over #10 Pittsburgh at home, and the bowl win over then-#1 and previously unbeaten Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Penn State played NINE winning teams in 1982, and they won eight of those games.
That's overwhelming enough to compensate for the one blowout loss, on the road, to a legend in his last season. This is Penn State's second McMNC in a row, and it is their third McMNC in the last six seasons.
Dynasty?
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. UCLA
3. Nebraska
4. Georgia
5. SMU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Clemson: -1981
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-23
2. SMU: 11-0-1 -- W, Cotton, 7-3
3. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 21-20
4. Georgia: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 23-27
5. UCLA: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 24-14
6. Arizona State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 32-21
7. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 21-20
8. Clemson: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
9. Arkansas: 9-2-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 28-24
10. LSU: 8-3-1 -- L, Orange, 20-21
So, here we are in another clusterf**k season. Surprise.
Penn State, SMU, Nebraska, UCLA, Arizona State and Washington qualify as our TUCs for the 1982 McMNC. However, since three teams reside in the same conference, that tie is broken easily before we even get started: UCLA wins the conference title (although, like the SEC, the Pac-10 is idiotic when it comes to balanced schedules!), despite losing the head-to-head matchup against Washington. Go figure: UCLA was 5-1-1 in conference play, while the Huskies were 6-2 in league play. Doh!
So, that leave sus with Penn State, SMU, Nebraska and UCLA. Now, SMU was on probation in 1981, and in 1985, they would receive another three years' probation. In 1986, they'd get caught doing something illegal AGAIN and face the death penalty. How does this impact the 1982 team? They had a new coach who was innocent of the charges brought resulting in the 1981 probation, but this coach was probably at the center of the 1985 charges, too. All in all, SMU is just too problematic to consider for its cheatenous patterns. They're out.
Down to three teams (Penn State, Nebraska and UCLA), there is one more tie to break: Nebraska lost at Penn State on September 23rd by three points. That gives the Nittany Lions a head-to-head edge over the 'Huskers and eliminates them.
So we're now down to two teams: Penn State and UCLA. Phew, that was easy!
UCLA has an SOS rating of 55%, and they have a loss and a tie. The loss was a three-point setback on the road at #7 Washington. Surely, this is not a bad loss. However, the Bruins also have a tie: at home to unranked 6-4-1 Arizona (24-24). For what it is worth, the Wildcats had a three-point win at 6-4-1 Notre Dame and ten-point home win over #6 Arizona State that kept the Sun Devils from the Rose Bowl. They were a decent team. The Bruins also had consecutive road wins over unranked 7-5 Wisconsin (51-26) and UPI #15 Michigan (8-4) by a 31-27 score in September, while beating 7-4 California on the road by 16 points, AP #15 USC by a point at "home" and Michigan once again in the Rose Bowl. They had seven games against winning teams and went 5-1-1. A good schedule, to be sure, even with the two blemishes.
Penn State, however, did its seemingly-usual number with a 63% SOS rating. Their one loss was a 21-point road setback at UPI #17 Alabama (8-4). Can a team that loses a game by 20 points still win the McMNC? The Nittany Lions had wins over AP #20 Maryland (8-4) at home by eight points, the three-point win over #3 Nebraska at home, a 24-0 win over AP #19 West Virginia (9-3) on the road, a 35-point win over unranked 8-3-1 Boston College on the road, a 54-0 win over unranked 6-5 North Carolina State, a ten-point road win over Notre Dame, a nine-point win over #10 Pittsburgh at home, and the bowl win over then-#1 and previously unbeaten Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Penn State played NINE winning teams in 1982, and they won eight of those games.
That's overwhelming enough to compensate for the one blowout loss, on the road, to a legend in his last season. This is Penn State's second McMNC in a row, and it is their third McMNC in the last six seasons.
Dynasty?
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. UCLA
3. Nebraska
4. Georgia
5. SMU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Clemson: -1981
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Thursday, June 19, 2008
1981 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Clemson: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 22-15
2. Texas: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 14-12
3. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 26-10
4. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-20
5. SMU: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
6. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-24
7. Alabama: 9-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 12-14
8. Miami: 9-2-0 -- NONE (probation)
9. North Carolina: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 31-27
10. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 28-0
What a boring season. Clemson is the clear front-runner, almost by default. Pittsburgh has a shot, while Texas and Penn State have outside looks, too. But SMU? No way, cheaters. And oh look! The Hurricanes on probation, too ... surprise (not!).
So let's go with Penn State first, just because we can. Yes, they have two losses, but I've already crossed that barrier before in a special circumstance. Will this be another one? The Nittany Lions have an SOS rating of 63%, which is outstanding, of course. But with two losses?! They lost to #8 Miami on the road by three points. When you lose to a team on probation, though, does that count? (See 1977 Penn State, for example). I am not so sure it should count. The other loss was a 15-point home setback to #7 Alabama. Now, two losses to Top 8 teams isn't a bad thing, and it really should be only one loss since the Hurricanes were cheatenous. The SOS was built with wins over unranked 6-5 Cincinnati at home (52-0), AP #11 Nebraska (9-3) on the road (30-24), AP #17 West Virginia (9-3) at home (30-7), #4 Pittsburgh on the road (48-14)and AP #14 USC (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl (26-10). That's a packed schedule.
The PSU win over Pittsburgh also pretty much eliminates the Panthers. You cannot lose a home game by 34 points and expect to win the McMNC, no matter what. Sorry, Pitt. Your 11-1 record with a 57% SOS is great, but you can't shake that ugly home loss no matter what you do.
The Longhorns posted a 54% SOS rating, with a loss to UPI #16 Arkansas (8-4) by 31 points on the road. No. You just can't lose a game by 31 points, even on the road, and expect to compete for the McMNC. Besides, the Longhorns also had a tie to unranked 7-4-1 Houston on the road (14-14), and those two blemishes are significantly worse than Penn State's two losses (see above). So Texas is out.
Can Clemson hold on? It would be a tough justification to give two-loss Penn State the McMNC over an undefeated team, but the Tigers' SOS rating was only 49% in 1981. They beat unranked 6-5 Tulane on the road by eight points, they beat #6 Georgia at home by ten points, they beat unranked 6-5 Duke on the road by 28 points, they beat #9 North Carolina on the road by two points, and they beat #11 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl by seven points. You can't argue with the two wins over Top 10 teams, and their SOS was dragged down by 0-4 Wofford (yes, that was their record) and 1-10 Virginia. The overall SOS is weak, but the individual wins are good.
So it's Penn State versus Clemson. In a comparative game, they both played #11 Nebraska: Penn State won in Lincoln by six, Clemson won in Miami by seven. A slight edge goes to Penn State for the road effort. Both teams also played North Carolina State (4-7): Clemson beat the 'Pack at home by ten points, and Penn State beat them on the road by seven points. That's a wash. Penn State played powerhouses Nebraska (road), Alabama, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh (road) and USC (bowl). Clemson played powerhouses Georgia and Nebraska (bowl). Overall, we know Penn State had the significantly better schedule, but they also had two losses -- one to a cheatenous team on probation.
There's a sidebar here that needs to be discussed as well. Clemson was put on probation during the 1982 season for several seasons of infractions, from 1977 through 1981. This means they basically cheated to win this AP title in 1981, and I cannot tolerate verified cheaters winning anything. Now I realize this means I may have to go back and revise some previous seasons, too, but there is no way Clemson wins my McMNC for 1981 when they were nailed for over 70 recruiting violations that led directly to the players on this 1981 team.
Penn State runs a clean program, and they are not going to be denied a McMNC in 1981 at the expense of TWO cheatenous programs (Miami and Clemson). Add in the significant edge in SOS for the Nittany Lions, and you have a McMNC you can be proud of this year.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Clemson
3. Pittsburgh
4. Texas
5. North Carolina
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Clemson: -1981
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Clemson: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 22-15
2. Texas: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 14-12
3. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 26-10
4. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-20
5. SMU: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
6. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-24
7. Alabama: 9-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 12-14
8. Miami: 9-2-0 -- NONE (probation)
9. North Carolina: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 31-27
10. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 28-0
What a boring season. Clemson is the clear front-runner, almost by default. Pittsburgh has a shot, while Texas and Penn State have outside looks, too. But SMU? No way, cheaters. And oh look! The Hurricanes on probation, too ... surprise (not!).
So let's go with Penn State first, just because we can. Yes, they have two losses, but I've already crossed that barrier before in a special circumstance. Will this be another one? The Nittany Lions have an SOS rating of 63%, which is outstanding, of course. But with two losses?! They lost to #8 Miami on the road by three points. When you lose to a team on probation, though, does that count? (See 1977 Penn State, for example). I am not so sure it should count. The other loss was a 15-point home setback to #7 Alabama. Now, two losses to Top 8 teams isn't a bad thing, and it really should be only one loss since the Hurricanes were cheatenous. The SOS was built with wins over unranked 6-5 Cincinnati at home (52-0), AP #11 Nebraska (9-3) on the road (30-24), AP #17 West Virginia (9-3) at home (30-7), #4 Pittsburgh on the road (48-14)and AP #14 USC (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl (26-10). That's a packed schedule.
The PSU win over Pittsburgh also pretty much eliminates the Panthers. You cannot lose a home game by 34 points and expect to win the McMNC, no matter what. Sorry, Pitt. Your 11-1 record with a 57% SOS is great, but you can't shake that ugly home loss no matter what you do.
The Longhorns posted a 54% SOS rating, with a loss to UPI #16 Arkansas (8-4) by 31 points on the road. No. You just can't lose a game by 31 points, even on the road, and expect to compete for the McMNC. Besides, the Longhorns also had a tie to unranked 7-4-1 Houston on the road (14-14), and those two blemishes are significantly worse than Penn State's two losses (see above). So Texas is out.
Can Clemson hold on? It would be a tough justification to give two-loss Penn State the McMNC over an undefeated team, but the Tigers' SOS rating was only 49% in 1981. They beat unranked 6-5 Tulane on the road by eight points, they beat #6 Georgia at home by ten points, they beat unranked 6-5 Duke on the road by 28 points, they beat #9 North Carolina on the road by two points, and they beat #11 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl by seven points. You can't argue with the two wins over Top 10 teams, and their SOS was dragged down by 0-4 Wofford (yes, that was their record) and 1-10 Virginia. The overall SOS is weak, but the individual wins are good.
So it's Penn State versus Clemson. In a comparative game, they both played #11 Nebraska: Penn State won in Lincoln by six, Clemson won in Miami by seven. A slight edge goes to Penn State for the road effort. Both teams also played North Carolina State (4-7): Clemson beat the 'Pack at home by ten points, and Penn State beat them on the road by seven points. That's a wash. Penn State played powerhouses Nebraska (road), Alabama, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh (road) and USC (bowl). Clemson played powerhouses Georgia and Nebraska (bowl). Overall, we know Penn State had the significantly better schedule, but they also had two losses -- one to a cheatenous team on probation.
There's a sidebar here that needs to be discussed as well. Clemson was put on probation during the 1982 season for several seasons of infractions, from 1977 through 1981. This means they basically cheated to win this AP title in 1981, and I cannot tolerate verified cheaters winning anything. Now I realize this means I may have to go back and revise some previous seasons, too, but there is no way Clemson wins my McMNC for 1981 when they were nailed for over 70 recruiting violations that led directly to the players on this 1981 team.
Penn State runs a clean program, and they are not going to be denied a McMNC in 1981 at the expense of TWO cheatenous programs (Miami and Clemson). Add in the significant edge in SOS for the Nittany Lions, and you have a McMNC you can be proud of this year.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Clemson
3. Pittsburgh
4. Texas
5. North Carolina
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Clemson: -1981
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 16, 2008
1980 McMNC: Pittsburgh Panthers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Georgia: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 17-10
2. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 37-9
3. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 18-17
4. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 23-6
5. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-18
6. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton 30-2
7. Nebraska: 10-3-0 -- W, Sun, 31-17
8. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-19
9. Notre Dame: 9-2-1 -- L, Sugar, 10-17
10. North Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 16-7
Note: BYU went 12-1 with a 51% SOS rating, their only loss an inexcusable, season-opening defeat to 4-7 New Mexico on the road, 25-21. They were THATclose to jumping on to the national scene a bit earlier than 1984. And hey! Bo finally won the Rose Bowl!
So, anyway, it's Herschel Time for the McMNC. Or is it?! This is really only about Georgia, Pitt and North Carolina. And we should start with Georgia just to see what is actually possible.
The Bulldogs went 6-0 in the SEC and didn't have to face Alabama (the Tide went 6-1 in SEC games, thereby once again showing the Southeastern Conference to be totally idiotic with its uneven schedules). Overall, their SOS rating was a laughable 41%. They beat ONE AP-ranked team all season, and that was the Sugar Bowl win over Notre Dame. In their defense, they did also beat UPI #19 Florida (8-4) by five points at home. But overall, that is one weak schedule. Sure, it was dragged down by 1-10 TCU, 1-9-1 Georgia Tech and 2-9 Vanderbilt, but only one win over an AP-ranked team all season? The Bulldogs did beat unranked 6-5 Clemson at home by four points and unranked 8-4 South Carolina by three points at home. And that's it for winning teams. So in 12 games, they played four winning teams total -- winning NONE of those games by double-digit margins. They also only played THREE road games the entire season, not including the Sugar Bowl. This is one of the more ridiculous schedules ever in college football history; if the Bulldogs didn't go 12-0, they should have been banished from Division 1-A competition.
So the door is definitely open for Pitt and UNC.
The Tar Heels played a schedule with a 50% rating, but their one loss was a 34-point beating on the road at #3 Oklahoma. You can't lose a game by 34 points, no matter what the opponent or situation, and expect to win a McMNC. Plus, their SOS was inflated by a win over 9-1-1 Furman. It's nice they beat Texas in a bowl game, but the Longhorns were only 7-5 in 1980. In fact, UNC didn't beat a ranked team all season, and the only ranked team they played beat them silly. So, despite Georgia's laughable schedule, they stay ahead of UNC in this analysis.
Which leaves us with Pittsburgh. The Panthers' sole loss was on the road to #5 Florida State, a better team than Georgia played all season. Their best win was a five-point road victory at #8 Penn State. In fact, Pittsburgh played six road games in 1980, which is an impressive feat against a 56%-rated SOS. They beat unranked 7-4 Boston College at home by eight points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 29 points, and they beat unranked 8-4 South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. They played five games against winning teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played two AP-ranked teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played a tougher schedule, through and through, than Georgia, and they did so in more dominant fashion -- winning on the road against a Top 10 team (Penn State) and playing more than half their schedule (including the bowl game) on the road.
Sorry, Herschel. No Heisman and no McMNC, either.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. Georgia
3. North Carolina
4. BYU
5. Penn State (62% SOS)
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Georgia: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 17-10
2. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 37-9
3. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 18-17
4. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 23-6
5. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-18
6. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton 30-2
7. Nebraska: 10-3-0 -- W, Sun, 31-17
8. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-19
9. Notre Dame: 9-2-1 -- L, Sugar, 10-17
10. North Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 16-7
Note: BYU went 12-1 with a 51% SOS rating, their only loss an inexcusable, season-opening defeat to 4-7 New Mexico on the road, 25-21. They were THATclose to jumping on to the national scene a bit earlier than 1984. And hey! Bo finally won the Rose Bowl!
So, anyway, it's Herschel Time for the McMNC. Or is it?! This is really only about Georgia, Pitt and North Carolina. And we should start with Georgia just to see what is actually possible.
The Bulldogs went 6-0 in the SEC and didn't have to face Alabama (the Tide went 6-1 in SEC games, thereby once again showing the Southeastern Conference to be totally idiotic with its uneven schedules). Overall, their SOS rating was a laughable 41%. They beat ONE AP-ranked team all season, and that was the Sugar Bowl win over Notre Dame. In their defense, they did also beat UPI #19 Florida (8-4) by five points at home. But overall, that is one weak schedule. Sure, it was dragged down by 1-10 TCU, 1-9-1 Georgia Tech and 2-9 Vanderbilt, but only one win over an AP-ranked team all season? The Bulldogs did beat unranked 6-5 Clemson at home by four points and unranked 8-4 South Carolina by three points at home. And that's it for winning teams. So in 12 games, they played four winning teams total -- winning NONE of those games by double-digit margins. They also only played THREE road games the entire season, not including the Sugar Bowl. This is one of the more ridiculous schedules ever in college football history; if the Bulldogs didn't go 12-0, they should have been banished from Division 1-A competition.
So the door is definitely open for Pitt and UNC.
The Tar Heels played a schedule with a 50% rating, but their one loss was a 34-point beating on the road at #3 Oklahoma. You can't lose a game by 34 points, no matter what the opponent or situation, and expect to win a McMNC. Plus, their SOS was inflated by a win over 9-1-1 Furman. It's nice they beat Texas in a bowl game, but the Longhorns were only 7-5 in 1980. In fact, UNC didn't beat a ranked team all season, and the only ranked team they played beat them silly. So, despite Georgia's laughable schedule, they stay ahead of UNC in this analysis.
Which leaves us with Pittsburgh. The Panthers' sole loss was on the road to #5 Florida State, a better team than Georgia played all season. Their best win was a five-point road victory at #8 Penn State. In fact, Pittsburgh played six road games in 1980, which is an impressive feat against a 56%-rated SOS. They beat unranked 7-4 Boston College at home by eight points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 29 points, and they beat unranked 8-4 South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. They played five games against winning teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played two AP-ranked teams in 1980, which is one more than Georgia. They played a tougher schedule, through and through, than Georgia, and they did so in more dominant fashion -- winning on the road against a Top 10 team (Penn State) and playing more than half their schedule (including the bowl game) on the road.
Sorry, Herschel. No Heisman and no McMNC, either.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. Georgia
3. North Carolina
4. BYU
5. Penn State (62% SOS)
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Thursday, June 12, 2008
1979 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-9
2. USC: 11-0-1 -- W, Rose, 17-16
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-7
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 16-17
5. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
6. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 7-24
7. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 16-10
8. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 9-24
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 14-17
10. Purdue: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-22
Side note: BYU went 11-1 with a 50% SOS, losing on their Holiday Bowl game to #19 Indiana by a point. Pretty good season, and the start of their ascent to 1984 and beyond.
Five teams here to consider: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, Houston and Pittsburgh. Two teams that choked away their bowl games? Ohio State and Florida State ... insert your own BCS joke here. And Nebraska, which started out 10-0 only to lose its last two games by three points each. No wonder Dr. Tom was so beleaguered in the 1980s.
Pittsburgh: With a 53% SOS rating, the Panthers are in this. Their only loss was on the road to AP #15 North Carolina (8-3-1 with Lawrence Taylor?) on September 22. They beat AP #17 Temple (9-2) on the road, they beat AP #11 Washington (9-3) on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Navy at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Syracuse at home, they beat AP #20 Penn State (8-4) at home, and they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They faced seven teams with winning records, losing only the first one on the road. A great season for Pitt, but can it hold up?
Houston: Is this the NFL or the NCAAs? Pittsburgh, Houston, 1979 ... anyway, like Pitt, Houston's only loss was to a ranked team: they lost to AP #12 Texas (9-3) at home. But their SOS rating was 50%, and they beat unranked 6-4-1 West Texas A&M at home, they beat AP #14 Baylor (8-4) at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas A&M on the road, they beat #8 Arkansas on the road, and they beat #9 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl. If it wasn't for some really bad teams on the schedule (0-10-1 Florida, 2-8-1 TCU and 1-10 Rice), the SOS would be much higher. As it is, Earl Campbell cannot beat Terry Bradshaw, so Houston falls just a notch below Pitt in this analysis.
Oklahoma: #12 Texas also ruined the Sooners' season, beating Oklahoma in October. The Sooners also have a 50% SOS rating, tying them with Houston in this analysis. Oklahoma's list of victims includes unranked 6-5 Tulsa (coached by John Cooper) at home, unranked 7-4 Oklahoma State (coached by Jimmy Johnson) on the road, UPI #20 Missouri (7-5) on the road, #9 Nebraska at home and previously-unbeaten #6 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. A good season, with some wins over some soon-to-be-famous coaches, but overall, the SOS isn't strong enough to pass Pitt, either.
USC: They have a potentially-hurtful tie, a 21-21 draw to 5-5-1 Stanford in Los Angeles. But they also have a 51% SOS rating with no losses. That puts them a bit above Pittsburgh, simply because they didn't lose. They beat unranked 7-5 LSU on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Notre Dame on the road, they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona at home, they beat AP #11 Washington on the road, and they knicked previously-unbeaten and then-#1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. They had three road wins in very tough places, and they knocked off the Buckeyes. The SOS would have been higher if not for 1-10 Oregon State. Not an overwhelming resume, but enough to take the lead from Pittsburgh at this stage of the analysis.
Alabama: Now, this is only open for debate because the Tide has a mediocre SOS rating of 44%. They were the only unblemished team in the country, but who did they play to get there? They shutout #14 Baylor by 45 points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Tennessee at home, they shutout 7-5 LSU on the road by three points, they beat AP #16 Auburn (8-3) on the road, and they beat #8 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. A schedule very similar to USC's, actually, minus the tie, of course. Why was 'Bama's SOS so low? In their first five games, they faced 1-10 Vanderbilt, 1-10 Wichita State and 0-10-1 Florida.
Common opponents? LSU, which USC beat by five points in Baton Rouge (17-12) and the Tide beat 3-0 in Baton Rouge. Can that tell us anything? Barely. USC does have the tie to .500 Stanford, but they also have the better SOS and perhaps the better bowl win (beating the previous #1 team in the country). The Tide have no ties and dominated their bowl game more thoroughly (albeit against #6 Arkansas).
So who gets the call? The Trojans or the Tide?
In the end, it comes down to that tie. Is the Trojans' superior SOS rating enough to compensate for the tie to a .500 team? In the past analyses, I have generally considering a double-digit edge in SOS to be enough to compensate for an extra loss (or a single loss, as it were). The examples precede this analysis, of course. Therefore, is the requisite for erasing a tie going to be half the double-digit SOS margin required to erase a loss? That would be five points in the SOS, and USC clearly has that covered in 1979 when considering their case over Alabama.
Both teams beat five winnings teams; Alabama beat three ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 13th), while USC only beat two ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 8th). Alabama played three pathetic teams on their way to 12-0, while USC only played one pathetic team on their way to 11-0-1. But you can't repeat the SOS argument in different languages, for that just compounds what we already know.
USC played a better schedule, and their seven-point edge in SOS rating is enough to overcome that tie to a .500 team. In addition, USC played an extra road game in 1979 while traveling to Texas, Indiana and Louisiana to take on OOC opponents. Alabama? They never left the comfy confines of the South.
USC played a better schedule, and that's good enough for the McMNC. They become just the third team to win back-to-back McMNCs, joining 1940s Michigan and 1970s Nebraska.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Pittsburgh
4. Oklahoma
5. Houston
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Alabama: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-9
2. USC: 11-0-1 -- W, Rose, 17-16
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-7
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 16-17
5. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
6. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 7-24
7. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 16-10
8. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 9-24
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 14-17
10. Purdue: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-22
Side note: BYU went 11-1 with a 50% SOS, losing on their Holiday Bowl game to #19 Indiana by a point. Pretty good season, and the start of their ascent to 1984 and beyond.
Five teams here to consider: Alabama, USC, Oklahoma, Houston and Pittsburgh. Two teams that choked away their bowl games? Ohio State and Florida State ... insert your own BCS joke here. And Nebraska, which started out 10-0 only to lose its last two games by three points each. No wonder Dr. Tom was so beleaguered in the 1980s.
Pittsburgh: With a 53% SOS rating, the Panthers are in this. Their only loss was on the road to AP #15 North Carolina (8-3-1 with Lawrence Taylor?) on September 22. They beat AP #17 Temple (9-2) on the road, they beat AP #11 Washington (9-3) on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Navy at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Syracuse at home, they beat AP #20 Penn State (8-4) at home, and they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. They faced seven teams with winning records, losing only the first one on the road. A great season for Pitt, but can it hold up?
Houston: Is this the NFL or the NCAAs? Pittsburgh, Houston, 1979 ... anyway, like Pitt, Houston's only loss was to a ranked team: they lost to AP #12 Texas (9-3) at home. But their SOS rating was 50%, and they beat unranked 6-4-1 West Texas A&M at home, they beat AP #14 Baylor (8-4) at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas A&M on the road, they beat #8 Arkansas on the road, and they beat #9 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl. If it wasn't for some really bad teams on the schedule (0-10-1 Florida, 2-8-1 TCU and 1-10 Rice), the SOS would be much higher. As it is, Earl Campbell cannot beat Terry Bradshaw, so Houston falls just a notch below Pitt in this analysis.
Oklahoma: #12 Texas also ruined the Sooners' season, beating Oklahoma in October. The Sooners also have a 50% SOS rating, tying them with Houston in this analysis. Oklahoma's list of victims includes unranked 6-5 Tulsa (coached by John Cooper) at home, unranked 7-4 Oklahoma State (coached by Jimmy Johnson) on the road, UPI #20 Missouri (7-5) on the road, #9 Nebraska at home and previously-unbeaten #6 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. A good season, with some wins over some soon-to-be-famous coaches, but overall, the SOS isn't strong enough to pass Pitt, either.
USC: They have a potentially-hurtful tie, a 21-21 draw to 5-5-1 Stanford in Los Angeles. But they also have a 51% SOS rating with no losses. That puts them a bit above Pittsburgh, simply because they didn't lose. They beat unranked 7-5 LSU on the road, they beat unranked 7-4 Notre Dame on the road, they beat unranked 6-5-1 Arizona at home, they beat AP #11 Washington on the road, and they knicked previously-unbeaten and then-#1 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. They had three road wins in very tough places, and they knocked off the Buckeyes. The SOS would have been higher if not for 1-10 Oregon State. Not an overwhelming resume, but enough to take the lead from Pittsburgh at this stage of the analysis.
Alabama: Now, this is only open for debate because the Tide has a mediocre SOS rating of 44%. They were the only unblemished team in the country, but who did they play to get there? They shutout #14 Baylor by 45 points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Tennessee at home, they shutout 7-5 LSU on the road by three points, they beat AP #16 Auburn (8-3) on the road, and they beat #8 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. A schedule very similar to USC's, actually, minus the tie, of course. Why was 'Bama's SOS so low? In their first five games, they faced 1-10 Vanderbilt, 1-10 Wichita State and 0-10-1 Florida.
Common opponents? LSU, which USC beat by five points in Baton Rouge (17-12) and the Tide beat 3-0 in Baton Rouge. Can that tell us anything? Barely. USC does have the tie to .500 Stanford, but they also have the better SOS and perhaps the better bowl win (beating the previous #1 team in the country). The Tide have no ties and dominated their bowl game more thoroughly (albeit against #6 Arkansas).
So who gets the call? The Trojans or the Tide?
In the end, it comes down to that tie. Is the Trojans' superior SOS rating enough to compensate for the tie to a .500 team? In the past analyses, I have generally considering a double-digit edge in SOS to be enough to compensate for an extra loss (or a single loss, as it were). The examples precede this analysis, of course. Therefore, is the requisite for erasing a tie going to be half the double-digit SOS margin required to erase a loss? That would be five points in the SOS, and USC clearly has that covered in 1979 when considering their case over Alabama.
Both teams beat five winnings teams; Alabama beat three ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 13th), while USC only beat two ranked teams (rough average in the final polls: 8th). Alabama played three pathetic teams on their way to 12-0, while USC only played one pathetic team on their way to 11-0-1. But you can't repeat the SOS argument in different languages, for that just compounds what we already know.
USC played a better schedule, and their seven-point edge in SOS rating is enough to overcome that tie to a .500 team. In addition, USC played an extra road game in 1979 while traveling to Texas, Indiana and Louisiana to take on OOC opponents. Alabama? They never left the comfy confines of the South.
USC played a better schedule, and that's good enough for the McMNC. They become just the third team to win back-to-back McMNCs, joining 1940s Michigan and 1970s Nebraska.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Pittsburgh
4. Oklahoma
5. Houston
RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 9, 2008
1978 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 17-10
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-24
4. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
6. Clemson: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 17-15
7. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-34
8. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 24-31
9. Texas: 9-3-0 -- W, Sun, 42-0
10. Houston: 9-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 34-35
This is a funny year, where Alabama was named the AP champion despite an obvious flaw the voters chose to ignore (see below). Logic is the middle name of the McMNC, so strap yourselves in.
TUCs this year are 'Bama, USC, Oklahoma and Clemson. Penn State and Michigan both blew their bowl games, although if Penn State had won, Michigan would have been eliminated, anyway, in all likelihood. Poor Bo.
Clemson is probably better remembered for ending Woody Hayes' career than they are for going 11-1 in 1978. But they had a great season. The one loss was a 12-point road defeat to AP #16 Georgia (9-2-1), nominally respectable since it came in September. Their overall SOS rating was 49%, and it included wins over AP #18 North Carolina State (9-3), AP #20 Maryland (9-3) and 7-4-1 Ohio State. Those were the only four teams with winning records on Clemson's 1978 schedule, though.
Oklahoma's only loss was on the road to #8 Nebraska by three points, and the Sooners avenged that loss in the Orange Bowl. But technically, Nebraska won the Big 8 in 1978, based on the regular-season, head-to-head win over the Sooners. So Oklahoma is eliminated, because they didn't win their conference. Their SOS rating? A mid-level 50%, including wins over AP #17 Stanford (8-4), AP #15 Missouri (8-4), AP #9 Texas, unranked 8-4 Iowa State, unranked 6-5 Colorado, and the split against the Cornhuskers. A pretty good slate, save for 2-9 West Virginia, 2-9 Rice, 1-10 Kansas, and 3-8 Oklahoma State that sink the SOS overall. Oh well ...
USC blows Oklahoma out of the water with a 64% SOS rating in 1978. Their one loss was to UPI #19 Arizona State (9-3), on the road, in its first Pac-8/10 season: an acceptable loss, at worst. The Trojans beat unranked 7-4 Texas Tech by eight points at home, #1 Alabama on the road by ten points, AP #12 Michigan State (8-3) at home by 21 points, unranked 6-5 California by 25 points at home, AP #17 Stanford by six points on the road, unranked 7-4 Washington by 18 points at home, AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) by seven points on the "road", #7 Notre Dame by two points at home, unranked 6-5 Hawaii on the road by 16 points, and #5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl by a touchdown. Have you lost count of how many winning teams USC beat in 1978? TEN. Oregon and Oregon State were 5-16-1 in 1978, and they were the only teams with losing records on the Trojans' schedule. This, my RSFCkers, is a SCHEDULE.
Alabama? They played a great schedule, too, to a 60% SOS rating. Their only loss? To #2 USC at home by ten points (see above). The Tide beat #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, they beat AP #15 Missouri (8-4) by 18 points on the road, they beat 7-4 Washington on the road by three points, they beat unranked 6-5 Mississippi State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 8-4 Louisiana State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 6-4-1 Auburn on the road by 18 points, and they beat #4 Penn State (then unbeaten and #1) in the Sugar Bowl by seven points. The Tide beat seven winning teams in 1978, which is pretty good in any other season. There's also the little tricky bit about the head-to-head loss to USC at HOME. And you KNOW what that means ...
It mystifies me the AP voters messed this one up so badly. At least the UPI poll got it right, putting USC at #1 at the end of the season.
The Trojans were robbed in 1978, and I aim to put it right.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Penn State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 17-10
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-24
4. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
6. Clemson: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 17-15
7. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-34
8. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 24-31
9. Texas: 9-3-0 -- W, Sun, 42-0
10. Houston: 9-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 34-35
This is a funny year, where Alabama was named the AP champion despite an obvious flaw the voters chose to ignore (see below). Logic is the middle name of the McMNC, so strap yourselves in.
TUCs this year are 'Bama, USC, Oklahoma and Clemson. Penn State and Michigan both blew their bowl games, although if Penn State had won, Michigan would have been eliminated, anyway, in all likelihood. Poor Bo.
Clemson is probably better remembered for ending Woody Hayes' career than they are for going 11-1 in 1978. But they had a great season. The one loss was a 12-point road defeat to AP #16 Georgia (9-2-1), nominally respectable since it came in September. Their overall SOS rating was 49%, and it included wins over AP #18 North Carolina State (9-3), AP #20 Maryland (9-3) and 7-4-1 Ohio State. Those were the only four teams with winning records on Clemson's 1978 schedule, though.
Oklahoma's only loss was on the road to #8 Nebraska by three points, and the Sooners avenged that loss in the Orange Bowl. But technically, Nebraska won the Big 8 in 1978, based on the regular-season, head-to-head win over the Sooners. So Oklahoma is eliminated, because they didn't win their conference. Their SOS rating? A mid-level 50%, including wins over AP #17 Stanford (8-4), AP #15 Missouri (8-4), AP #9 Texas, unranked 8-4 Iowa State, unranked 6-5 Colorado, and the split against the Cornhuskers. A pretty good slate, save for 2-9 West Virginia, 2-9 Rice, 1-10 Kansas, and 3-8 Oklahoma State that sink the SOS overall. Oh well ...
USC blows Oklahoma out of the water with a 64% SOS rating in 1978. Their one loss was to UPI #19 Arizona State (9-3), on the road, in its first Pac-8/10 season: an acceptable loss, at worst. The Trojans beat unranked 7-4 Texas Tech by eight points at home, #1 Alabama on the road by ten points, AP #12 Michigan State (8-3) at home by 21 points, unranked 6-5 California by 25 points at home, AP #17 Stanford by six points on the road, unranked 7-4 Washington by 18 points at home, AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) by seven points on the "road", #7 Notre Dame by two points at home, unranked 6-5 Hawaii on the road by 16 points, and #5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl by a touchdown. Have you lost count of how many winning teams USC beat in 1978? TEN. Oregon and Oregon State were 5-16-1 in 1978, and they were the only teams with losing records on the Trojans' schedule. This, my RSFCkers, is a SCHEDULE.
Alabama? They played a great schedule, too, to a 60% SOS rating. Their only loss? To #2 USC at home by ten points (see above). The Tide beat #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, they beat AP #15 Missouri (8-4) by 18 points on the road, they beat 7-4 Washington on the road by three points, they beat unranked 6-5 Mississippi State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 8-4 Louisiana State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 6-4-1 Auburn on the road by 18 points, and they beat #4 Penn State (then unbeaten and #1) in the Sugar Bowl by seven points. The Tide beat seven winning teams in 1978, which is pretty good in any other season. There's also the little tricky bit about the head-to-head loss to USC at HOME. And you KNOW what that means ...
It mystifies me the AP voters messed this one up so badly. At least the UPI poll got it right, putting USC at #1 at the end of the season.
The Trojans were robbed in 1978, and I aim to put it right.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Penn State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Thursday, June 5, 2008
1977 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Notre Dame: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-10
2. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 35-6
3. Arkansas: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-6
4. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 10-38
5. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-30
6. Kentucky: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
7. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 6-31
8. Pittsburgh: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 34-3
9. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 20-27
10. Washington: 8-4-0 -- W, Rose, 27-20
So, this is a fun year (ugh). You have four teams with the same credentials (Notre Dame, Alabama, Arkansas and Penn State -- and if Bo hadn't choked away another Rose Bowl ...), so let's start separating them.
The Irish have an SOS rating of 58%, which is going to be hard to beat. They have a bad loss, though: a seven-point road loss to 5-6 Mississippi, the middle leg of a three-game road trip to open the season. They did beat #8 Pittsburgh by ten points on the road to open the season, they beat 7-3-1 Michigan State by ten points at home, they shutout 7-4 Army on the road 20-0, they pounded AP #13 USC (8-4) at home by 30 points, they creamed 6-5 Georgia Tech by 55 points at home, they beat AP #19 Clemson (8-3-1) by four points on the road, and they butchered then-#1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Overall, a pretty impressive slate -- but will that loss to a losing team hurt them?
Alabama has a respectable SOS at 51%, but it still trails the Irish, of course. Their loss? A seven-point road loss to AP #12 Nebraska (9-3) on September 17, the same day the Irish lost. But that is a very respectable loss, and it could be enough to overcome the Irish SOS advantage. They beat #13 USC on the road by a point, they pounded 7-4-1 Louisville at home by 49 points, they beat 8-4 Louisiana State on the road by 21 points, and they buried #11 Ohio State (9-3) in the Sugar Bowl. Their wins aren't as impressive as Notre Dame's, but they don't have an embarrassing loss, either.
Arkansas is eliminated from this McMNC discussion, because they finished second in the SWC -- their one loss was a four-point home setback to the Longhorns. And with a 48% SOS rating, they wouldn't have made the cut, anyway.
That leaves us with Penn State. Long had the Nittany Lions missed out on McMNCs because of poor schedule, but in 1977? Their SOS rating was an astounding 60%! But was it a soft 60% or a firm 60%? Their one loss was four-point home setback to cheatenous #6 Kentucky. That's almost like a win, in truth, especially in this conversation. They beat 8-3 Rutgers by 38 points on the road (soft), they beat 7-5 Houston at home by 17 points, they beat 8-5 Maryland at home by 18 points, they beat 6-5 Syracuse on the road by seven points, they beat UPI #19 North Carolina State (8-4) on the road by four points, they beat #8 Pittsburgh on the road by two points, and they beat AP #18 Arizona State (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl. An interesting schedule, supported by games against middling teams (5-6 West Virginia and 5-5-1 Temple), but it lacks pop.
So we have a close one here: Notre Dame at 58% SOS with a bad loss and three big wins, Alabama at 51% SOS with a good loss and one big win, and Penn State at 60% SOS with a "loss" to probation Kentucky and few impressive wins.
Hmmmm. As Lucius Aurelius Commodus Antoninus would say, "It vexes me. I'm terribly vexed."
In the end, you can't give the McMNC to a TUC who has a loss to a losing team, especially when the other two teams lost to Top 12 teams. That eliminates Notre Dame. And Penn State trumps Alabama on SOS and the "better loss" angle.
Congratulations, Joe Paterno. You earned it.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
1. Notre Dame: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-10
2. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 35-6
3. Arkansas: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-6
4. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 10-38
5. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-30
6. Kentucky: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
7. Oklahoma: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 6-31
8. Pittsburgh: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 34-3
9. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 20-27
10. Washington: 8-4-0 -- W, Rose, 27-20
So, this is a fun year (ugh). You have four teams with the same credentials (Notre Dame, Alabama, Arkansas and Penn State -- and if Bo hadn't choked away another Rose Bowl ...), so let's start separating them.
The Irish have an SOS rating of 58%, which is going to be hard to beat. They have a bad loss, though: a seven-point road loss to 5-6 Mississippi, the middle leg of a three-game road trip to open the season. They did beat #8 Pittsburgh by ten points on the road to open the season, they beat 7-3-1 Michigan State by ten points at home, they shutout 7-4 Army on the road 20-0, they pounded AP #13 USC (8-4) at home by 30 points, they creamed 6-5 Georgia Tech by 55 points at home, they beat AP #19 Clemson (8-3-1) by four points on the road, and they butchered then-#1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Overall, a pretty impressive slate -- but will that loss to a losing team hurt them?
Alabama has a respectable SOS at 51%, but it still trails the Irish, of course. Their loss? A seven-point road loss to AP #12 Nebraska (9-3) on September 17, the same day the Irish lost. But that is a very respectable loss, and it could be enough to overcome the Irish SOS advantage. They beat #13 USC on the road by a point, they pounded 7-4-1 Louisville at home by 49 points, they beat 8-4 Louisiana State on the road by 21 points, and they buried #11 Ohio State (9-3) in the Sugar Bowl. Their wins aren't as impressive as Notre Dame's, but they don't have an embarrassing loss, either.
Arkansas is eliminated from this McMNC discussion, because they finished second in the SWC -- their one loss was a four-point home setback to the Longhorns. And with a 48% SOS rating, they wouldn't have made the cut, anyway.
That leaves us with Penn State. Long had the Nittany Lions missed out on McMNCs because of poor schedule, but in 1977? Their SOS rating was an astounding 60%! But was it a soft 60% or a firm 60%? Their one loss was four-point home setback to cheatenous #6 Kentucky. That's almost like a win, in truth, especially in this conversation. They beat 8-3 Rutgers by 38 points on the road (soft), they beat 7-5 Houston at home by 17 points, they beat 8-5 Maryland at home by 18 points, they beat 6-5 Syracuse on the road by seven points, they beat UPI #19 North Carolina State (8-4) on the road by four points, they beat #8 Pittsburgh on the road by two points, and they beat AP #18 Arizona State (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl. An interesting schedule, supported by games against middling teams (5-6 West Virginia and 5-5-1 Temple), but it lacks pop.
So we have a close one here: Notre Dame at 58% SOS with a bad loss and three big wins, Alabama at 51% SOS with a good loss and one big win, and Penn State at 60% SOS with a "loss" to probation Kentucky and few impressive wins.
Hmmmm. As Lucius Aurelius Commodus Antoninus would say, "It vexes me. I'm terribly vexed."
In the end, you can't give the McMNC to a TUC who has a loss to a losing team, especially when the other two teams lost to Top 12 teams. That eliminates Notre Dame. And Penn State trumps Alabama on SOS and the "better loss" angle.
Congratulations, Joe Paterno. You earned it.
McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Arkansas
5. Texas
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977
Monday, June 2, 2008
1976 McMNC: Pittsburgh Panthers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Pittsburgh: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-3
2. USC: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 14-6
3. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 6-14
4. Houston: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 30-21
5. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- W, Fiesta, 41-7
6. Ohio State: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 27-10
7. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Sun, 37-14
8. Maryland: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 21-30
9. Nebraska: 9-3-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-24
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 3-27
Note: Rutgers went 11-0 with a 32% SOS rating to finish 17th in the AP poll. Congrats! Also, if Maryland had won the Cotton Bowl, they would have a case against Pittsburgh (see below).
So Pitt is the clear favorite here, of course, as the only undefeated team. The question is their SOS and the one-loss, bowl-winning team behind them: USC. Not a lot to choose from in 1976, huh?
USC: Ironic, but their one loss is the same as Alabama's from 1975 -- a double-digit home loss to 6-5 Missouri. The Trojans actually lost 46-25 in their opening game of the season, before winning the last 11 straight. Their SOS rating was 51%, which isn't going to overwhelm anyone, although it's not bad by any stretch. They beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by 24 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (9-2-1) on the "road" by ten points, they beat AP #12 Notre Dame (9-3) by four points at home, and they beat #3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Again, these were four of the last five games of the season for USC -- and the only wins against winning teams all season. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Oregon State and 3-8 Washington State, by the way.
Pittsburgh: Since the Panthers' SOS rating was 48%, they're going to keep their McMNC rights intact with the perfect record and a bowl win. They beat #12 Notre Dame on the road by 21 points, and that was their only win over a ranked team until the Sugar Bowl. They played only one other winning team in 1976: 7-5 Penn State. One of the weaker schedules you see for a McMNC winner, that's for sure. If Maryland had won its bowl game, they had a higher SOS rating (49%) and might have edged the Panthers.
USC has more wins over ranked teams, and they have more wins over winning teams. But the one loss was a big one for the Trojans, and it cost them the McMNC in 1976.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. USC
3. Houston
4. Texas A&M
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
1. Pittsburgh: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-3
2. USC: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 14-6
3. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 6-14
4. Houston: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 30-21
5. Oklahoma: 9-2-1 -- W, Fiesta, 41-7
6. Ohio State: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 27-10
7. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Sun, 37-14
8. Maryland: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 21-30
9. Nebraska: 9-3-1 -- W, Bluebonnet, 27-24
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 3-27
Note: Rutgers went 11-0 with a 32% SOS rating to finish 17th in the AP poll. Congrats! Also, if Maryland had won the Cotton Bowl, they would have a case against Pittsburgh (see below).
So Pitt is the clear favorite here, of course, as the only undefeated team. The question is their SOS and the one-loss, bowl-winning team behind them: USC. Not a lot to choose from in 1976, huh?
USC: Ironic, but their one loss is the same as Alabama's from 1975 -- a double-digit home loss to 6-5 Missouri. The Trojans actually lost 46-25 in their opening game of the season, before winning the last 11 straight. Their SOS rating was 51%, which isn't going to overwhelm anyone, although it's not bad by any stretch. They beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by 24 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (9-2-1) on the "road" by ten points, they beat AP #12 Notre Dame (9-3) by four points at home, and they beat #3 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Again, these were four of the last five games of the season for USC -- and the only wins against winning teams all season. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Oregon State and 3-8 Washington State, by the way.
Pittsburgh: Since the Panthers' SOS rating was 48%, they're going to keep their McMNC rights intact with the perfect record and a bowl win. They beat #12 Notre Dame on the road by 21 points, and that was their only win over a ranked team until the Sugar Bowl. They played only one other winning team in 1976: 7-5 Penn State. One of the weaker schedules you see for a McMNC winner, that's for sure. If Maryland had won its bowl game, they had a higher SOS rating (49%) and might have edged the Panthers.
USC has more wins over ranked teams, and they have more wins over winning teams. But the one loss was a big one for the Trojans, and it cost them the McMNC in 1976.
McMNC Revisions
1. Pittsburgh
2. USC
3. Houston
4. Texas A&M
5. Michigan
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973
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