Thursday, June 26, 2008

1983 McMNC: Auburn Tigers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-30
2. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 30-31
3. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 9-7
4. Georgia: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 10-9
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 9-10
6. Florida: 9-2-1 -- W, Gator, 14-6
7. BYU: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 21-17
8. Michigan: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-9
9. Ohio State: 9-3-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-23
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 9-45

This was a big year, and in the end, the voters were swayed by the on-field theatrics of the moment. However, in anointing Miami-FL the AP title, the voters overlooked some good teams. Auburn, Georgia and BYU also deserve consideration in this crazy year of bowl upsets by the smallest margins possible.

Going into the bowls, #1 Nebraska and #2 Texas looked strong. They both lost by a point, including Nebraska's much-ballyhooed decision to go for the win instead of the tie and the title.

Georgia isn't in this discussion, however, because they lost to Auburn head-to-head. Although it's worth pointing out that the SEC finally played a balanced schedule in 1983, with all teams playing six conference games.

Let's start with Brigham Young, however. Their rise to respectability continued in 1983, as they finished in the Top 10 finally. Their one loss was a four-point road defeat at 7-4-1 Baylor, the third-place SWC team in 1983. It was their first game of the year, and they ran the table from there on out. The Cougars beat 8-3 Bowling Green by 35 points at home, they beat AP #13 Air Force (10-2) by 18 points on the road, and they beat AP #17 and eventual Rose Bowl champion UCLA (7-4-1) by two points in Los Angeles. Heck, via transitive scores, that means BYU was better than the whole Big Ten, right? Maybe that's why they finished seventh in the AP poll ahead of three Big Ten teams. BYU also beat 7-5 Wyoming on the road by 31 points, and they beat 7-5 Missouri in the Holiday Bowl. They beat five winning teams, they beat two ranked teams, and they only lost on the road to a winning team by a few points. Their SOS rating for the season was 51%, which is consistent with the previous seasons. It's interesting to see how this sets up BYU for 1984, but more on that later. Regardless, it's a solid season for the Cougars with wins over good/ranked teams.

Auburn won the SEC with a perfect 6-0 mark, and their only loss was an early 13-point defeat at home to #5 Texas on September 17. They won their last ten games of the season to finish 11-1. Along the way, they beat 7-4 Southern Mississippi by 21 points at home, they beat unranked 9-3 Tennessee on the road by 23 points, they beat 7-5 Florida State at home by three points, they beat 6-5-1 Kentucky by 28 points on the road, they beat #6 Florida at home by seven points, they beat unranked 8-4 Maryland at home by 12 points, they beat #4 Georgia on the road by six points, they beat AP #15 Alabama (8-4) at home by three points, and they beat #8 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. Overall, they played ten winning teams in 1983, and they beat NINE of them. They're lucky in the sense their loss to Texas was nullified by the 'Horns losing the Cotton Bowl. After all, you just can't have a team losing its bowl game at the top of the polls (otherwise, Nebraska would have stayed #1 despite its loss to Miami-FL, right?). But this schedule amounts to an incredible 65% SOS rating, one of the better seasons we've seen in this whole McMNC analysis, for sure.

That leaves us with the Hurricanes, who benefited from a home-field advantage in the Orange Bowl stunner. Miami-FL also got lucky, like Auburn, in that their one loss came early to a highly-ranked team that had no chance at the title. Florida beat Miami in the Swamp, by 25 points, on September 3. After that, the 'Canes shutout 7-5 Notre Dame 20-0 at home, they beat AP #16 West Virginia (9-3) by 17 points at home, they beat AP #20 East Carolina by five points at home, they beat 7-5 Florida State on the road by one point, and they won the Orange Bowl by a point over then-#1 Nebraska. They played six winning teams, winning five of the games. They beat three ranked teams on the season, and their SOS rating was a solid 53% in 1983.

In the end, though, it just isn't possible to overlook the fact Auburn played a significantly harder schedule while also losing only one game -- to a better team than the 'Canes lost to in 1983. In the end, voters were probably swayed by the drama of the Orange Bowl, and they lost sight of the fact Auburn was a significantly better team in 1983.

Therefore, the Tigers get the McMNC for 1983, and a 25-year wrong is finally righted.

McMNC Revisions
1. Auburn
2. Miami-FL
3. Nebraska
4. Texas
5. BYU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

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