Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2013 McMNC: Florida State Seminoles

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Florida State (14-0): Won BCS Bowl, 34-31
2. Auburn (12-2): Lost BCS Bowl, 31-34
3. Michigan State (13-1): Won Rose Bowl, 24-20
4. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 34-24
5. Missouri (12-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-31
6. Oklahoma (11-2): Won Sugar Bowl, 45-31
7. Alabama (11-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 31-45
8. Clemson (11-2): Won Orange Bowl, 40-35

9. Oregon (11-2): Won Alamo Bowl, 30-7
10. UCF (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 52-42


This was the final year of the BCS, and good riddance. Never did the sport need a playoff as much as this season, although maybe that is just hyperbole. Either way, once again, the SEC placed a team that had no business being in the title game into the title game, and that team almost won it, sadly. Auburn reached the title game thanks to these two miracles (a 4th-and-18 prayer and the Kick Six), and in the end, both teams in the Rose Bowl were better candidates for the title game, not to mention several other also-ran squads that didn't win a conference title. This simple rating system shows Auburn to be the sixth-best team in the country, but since the SEC buys its way into every BCS title game ... yeah.


Either way, losing the title game eliminates them from this discussion. Really, this year's analysis comes down to FSU, MSU, Oklahoma, and UCF. We have to look at SOS here in order to sort out whether or not any team can unseat the Seminoles. 

Florida State's SOS was 86-80 was .516, not including its game against Bethune-Cookman (non-major opponent). That's pretty solid, and it eliminates two-loss Oklahoma from the conversation. The Sooners did not have an SOS over .700, that's for sure (.540), although their schedule was better the the Seminoles' schedule.

But what about MSU and UCF? Michigan State's SOS was .491 (not including its game against non-major Youngstown State), and UCF's SOS was .472—meaning Florida State was worthy of the championship belt. For what it's worth, the Spartans were the first Big Ten team ever to win all its conference games by double digits, but that wasn't enough to get the system to admit them to the title game.

Congratulations, Florida State.

McMNC Revision:

1. Florida State
2. Michigan State
3. UCF
4. Oklahoma
5. Auburn


RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980

Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993

Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012