Thursday, July 31, 2008

1993 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 11: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Florida State: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 18-16
2. Notre Dame: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 24-21
3. Nebraska: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 16-18
4. Auburn: 11-0-0 -- NONE (probation)
5. Florida: 11-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 41-7
6. Wisconsin: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 21-16
7. West Virginia: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-41
8. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 31-13
9. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 21-24
10. Arizona: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 29-0
11. Ohio State: 10-1-1 -- W, Holiday, 28-21

I am including 11 teams in the "Top 10" this year, for obvious reasons.

Welcome to another clusterfucked college football analysis! Florida State, Notre Dame, Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State, Arizona and Ohio State are in; Nebraska, Auburn, West Virginia and Texas A&M are out.

First thing first: Florida State cannot win the McMNC, because they lost to Notre Dame head-to-head. What the hell the AP voters were thinking (oh, poor Bobby Bowden!) is beyond me. But the Seminoles are out, because they lost to another TUC in a head-to-head matchup. Too bad, too, because FSU's 60% SOS rating was PHAT. Arizona is out, because they lost the Pac-10 tiebreaker on the basis of their head-to-head loss to UCLA. Penn State is out, because they finished third in the Big Ten.

Florida is an interesting call: they lost to FSU and Auburn, but with the Tigers on probation, is Florida the default SEC rep? Yes, because they are the official SEC champion of record. So they're in, with the two losses. BUT, since they lost to FSU and the Seminoles lost to Notre Dame, the Gators are actually out.

So this comes down to Notre Dame and the Big Ten co-champions. Why co-champs? Because they each went 6-1-1 in the Big Ten, with the tie being against each other. The only reason the Badgers went to the Rose Bowl, was because Ohio State got Cooper'd against Michigan (see below). Since the Badgers hadn't been to Pasadena since JFK's presidency, they got to go and represent.

Here's the rub, though: the Badgers' sole loss was to 4-7 Minnesota. That's a bad loss, and you can't have a McMNC with a loss to a loser. Plus, Wisconsin's SOS rating of 48% wasn't going to hold much water, anyway.

Ohio State? Their sole loss was a 28-0 road pounding at AP #21 Michigan (8-4) when the Buckeyes were 9-0-1. You can't have a McMNC who lost by 28 points, even if it was to a decent team on the road. Shutout losses by four touchdowns are not good. The Buckeyes got exiled to the Holiday Bowl for their trouble, in a disturbing bowl assignment trend that continues to this day (i.e., just-misses get tucked away where no one cares, including themselves).

Which means Notre Dame wins this by default. Of course, with a 52% SOS rating, they might have half-earned it, anyway. Their sole loss was by two points at home to AP #13 Boston College (9-3) in their last regular season game. Otherwise, they beat AP #21 Michigan, USA #25 USC (8-5), #1 Florida State and #9 Texas A&M. The SOS was dragged down by 2-9 Northwestern, 1-10 Purdue, and 3-8 Pittsburgh.

Whether by attrition or not, it's the Irish in 1993. Somewhere, Lou Holtz is gumming it up with joy ...

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Florida State
3. Nebraska
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993

Monday, July 28, 2008

1992 McMNC: Alabama Crimson Tide

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Alabama: 13-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 34-13
2. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 27-14
3. Miami: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 13-34
4. Notre Dame: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 28-3
5. Michigan: 9-0-3 -- W, Rose, 38-31
6. Syracuse: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 26-22
7. Texas A&M: 12-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 3-28
8. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 21-14
9. Stanford: 10-3-0 -- W, Blockbuster, 24-3
10. Florida: 9-4-0 -- W, Gator, 27-10

Note: This is the year the USA Today published the second major poll, so "USA" will stand for that poll ranking (i.e., USA #21).

More voter idiocy: Florida State lost to Miami, so why are the Seminoles ranked above the Hurricanes? Two words -- bow(e)l momentum!

Well, the Tide are the obvious notion here, but for pity's sake, let's look at Florida State, Notre Dame and Michigan here, too. If the Aggies had only been able to win that Cotton Bowl (in their backyard), maybe we'd have had a debate.

Then again, maybe not.

The Seminoles are a weird case, because they lost to #3 Miami-FL (of course) -- and Alabama pounded Miami in the Sugar Bowl. Does that matter since the Florida State loss to Miami was only by three points on the road? FSU's SOS rating was 57%, which is on the high side of pretty good. They beat AP #17 North Carolina State (9-3-1) by 21 points on the road, they beat AP #25 Wake Forest (8-4) by 28 points at home, they beat AP #19 North Carolina by 23 points at home, they beat unranked 7-4 Virginia on the road by ten points, they beat #10 Florida at home by 21 points, and they beat AP #14 Nebraska (9-3) by 13 points in the Orange Bowl (of course, they did). That's a pretty firm schedule, marred only by 2-9 Duke, 2-9 Tulane and 3-8 Maryland. They beat five ranked teams, easily, and they lost to a sixth in a squeaker.

Michigan has the three ties, which is weird in itself. But their SOS was only 49% in 1992, so it's not looking good. The ties? On the road at #4 Notre Dame, at home against unranked 6-5-1 Illinois, and on the road at AP #18 Ohio State (8-3-1). The only ranked team Michigan beat all year? AP #11 Washington (9-3) in the Rose Bowl. In fact, that was also the only winning team Michigan beat all season. Be gone, Moeller!

Notre Dame has that tie against Michigan, but they also have a home loss, by 17 points, to #9 Stanford. With an SOS rating of 55%, they better have some hellish wins to compensate for that loss. Do they? They beat unranked 8-5 BYU at home by 26 points, they beat AP #21 Boston College (8-3-1) at home by 47 points (!), they beat USA #25 Penn State (7-5) by one point at home, they beat unranked 6-5-1 USC on the road by eight points, and they beat previously unbeaten #7 Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. The wins over BC and A&M are nice, but hardly hellish. They can't edge FSU in this debate.

So it comes down to Alabama: with a 53% SOS rating, they pretty much secure the McMNC. They beat unranked 7-4 Southern Mississippi at home by seven points, they beat AP #12 Tennessee (9-3) by seven points on the road, they beat AP #16 Mississippi (9-3) at home by 21 points, they beat AP #23 Mississippi State (7-5) by nine points on the road to take the Mississippi State Championship in a sweep, they beat #10 Florida by seven points at home, and they pounded #3 Miami in the Sugar Bowl by 21 points.

Congratulations to Alabama, the McMNC winner for 1992.

McMNC Revisions
1. Alabama
2. Miami
3. Florida State
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Thursday, July 24, 2008

1991 McMNC: Washington Huskies

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 22-0
2. Washington: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 34-14
3. Penn State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-17
4. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 10-2
5. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Blockbuster, 30-25
6. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 14-34
7. Florida: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 28-39
8. California: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 37-13
9. East Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Peach, 37-34
10. Iowa: 10-1-1 -- T, Holiday, 13-13

Only four teams to consider here: Miami, Washington, Alabama and East Carolina (courtesy). But the Tide get rolled, because Florida won the SEC and the head-to-head matchup (35-0!).

East Carolina had a 48% SOS rating, and their loss was to 6-6 Illinois on the road by a touchdown. They did beat AP #11 Syracuse (10-2) and AP #24 North Carolina State (9-3), however. But they can't overcome the loss with such a low SOS rating.

So, obviously, we're down to two unbeaten, untied teams for the 1991 McMNC. Let the debate begin ...

Miami had a 54% SOS rating, with wins over AP #21 Tulsa (10-2) on the road by 24 points, #3 Penn State at home by six points, unranked 6-5 West Virginia by 24 points at home, #4 Florida State on the road by one point (of course), unranked 8-4-1 San Diego State at home by 27 points, and AP #15 Nebraska (9-2-1) in the Orange Bowl. The dogs on their schedule? 0-10-1 Oklahoma State and 2-9 Cal State Long Beach. They beat four ranked teams, including #3 and #4 by a combined seven points. The Hurricanes beat six winning teams in 1991.

Washington had a 52% SOS rating, with wins over AP #22 Stanford (8-4) by 35 points on the road, #15 Nebraska on the road by 15 points, unranked 7-4 Kansas State by 53 points at home, #8 California by seven points on the road, unranked 6-5 Arizona State by 28 points at home, and #6 Michigan by 20 points in the Rose Bowl. The schedule dog? 1-10 Oregon State. The Huskies, too, beat four ranked teams, including #6 and #8 by a combined 27 points. Washington also beat six winning teams in 1991.

Common opponents? Nebraska, for starters. Washington's win over Nebraska in Lincoln on September 21 has to be given more significance, since the Huskers were at home and probably believing they had a chance at the national title. By the time the Orange Bowl rolled around, Nebraska knew they had no shot at the championship, especially in Miami's backyard. Another common opponent? Arizona. Miami beat the 4-7 Wildcats by 27 points on the road, while Washington beat them 54-0 at home.

Miami has the slight SOS edge, but Washington takes the common opponents' edge and the better wins edge (because of dominance in those wins). The Huskies also have a better bowl win, since Miami was at home in the Orange Bowl and playing a lesser team.

This really is a close one to call, but in the end, the Huskies were a better team. They outscored their opponents by 32 points per game, while Miami only outscored their opponents by 24 points per game. Consider the narrow difference in SOS and the closeness of the schedule strength breakdown above, and you can see the Huskies deserve the McMNC for 1991.

Two years in a row, the UPI got it right. Why are they out of business?!

McMNC Revisions
1. Washington
2. Miami-FL
3. Alabama
4. East Carolina
5. Penn State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, =1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Monday, July 21, 2008

1990 McMNC: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Colorado: 11-1-1 -- W, Orange, 10-9
2. Georgia Tech: 11-0-1 -- W, Citrus, 45-21
3. Miami-FL: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 46-3
4. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- W, Blockbuster, 24-17
5. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 46-34
6. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 9-10
7. Michigan: 9-3-0 -- W, Gator, 35-3
8. Tennessee: 9-2-2 -- W, Sugar, 23-22
9. Clemson: 10-2-0 -- W, Hall of Fame, 30-0
10. Houston: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)

By the way, #14 Louisville went 10-1-1 with a 39% SOS. Weak!

This is an interesting poll year. I always felt the AP voters were going all sympathetic on Bill McCartney and Colorado, based on the end to 1989's season and the Sal Aunese affair. Throw in the Fifth Down against Missouri and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqC_Br3cDJg, and well ... something's rotten in Denmark.

However, the numbers won't lie, so let's start the crunch.

Colorado, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State and Washington are all in the fray here. But Washington lost at Colorado by six points on September 29, so they're out. Florida State lost to Miami (of course, they did) by nine points in Miami on October 6, so they're gone, too.

Miami has two losses to go with their outstanding 60% SOS rating: they lost on the road to AP #22 BYU (10-3) by seven points, and they went down to #6 Notre Dame on the road by nine points. Good losses, to be sure, but two of them? That hurts. The Hurricanes did beat unranked 7-4-1 California on the road by 28 points, AP #18 Iowa (8-4) at home by 27 points, #4 Florida State at home by nine points, UPI #21 Syracuse (7-4-2) by 26 points at home, 6-5 San Diego State on the road by two points, and AP #12 Texas (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl by 43 points. Overall, an impressive schedule featuring eight winning teams, even with the two losses.

Georgia Tech has only a tie to mar their record: the 55% SOS is good, and the tie was to 6-4-1 North Carolina on the road. Not an ugly blemish, to be sure -- and it's only a partial blemish. The Yellowjackets beat 7-5 North Carolina State at home by eight points, 6-5 South Carolina at home by 21 points, 6-5-1 Maryland on the road by 28 points, #9 Clemson at home by two points, AP #23 Virginia (8-4) on the road by three points, UPI #25 Virginia Tech (6-5) by three points at home, and AP #24 Nebraska (9-3) by 24 points in the Citrus Bowl. They squeaked by three ranked teams and then blew out a fourth in a bowl game. They played seven winning teams overall.

Colorado's SOS rating in 1990 was as good as Miami's rating: 60%. The Buffaloes tied #8 Tennessee on the road to open the season, and they lost to AP #25 Illinois on the road by a point in mid-September. But they did beat #12 Texas by seven points on the road, #5 Washington at home by six points, AP #17 Oklahoma (8-3) by nine points at home, #24 Nebraska by 15 points on the road, and #6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. They played seven ranked teams and went 5-1-1 against them.

First, we have to decide between Miami and Colorado: both have two blemishes, and both have a 60% SOS rating. The Buffaloes get the edge, because they played one more ranked team than Miami did, and they only lost once, on the road by a point to a ranked team. Miami's two losses were by bigger margins.

So, it's Colorado versus Georgia Tech. Colorado definitely played the better schedule. When it comes to the blemishes, Tech's tie is worse than Colorado's tie by a wide margin, and Colorado's loss isn't bad enough to loss that wide margin. Call it even -- and both teams pummeled Nebraska pretty good. Colorado has two better wins than Georgia Tech's best win.

But there is the Fifth Down to consider. Colorado should have lost a second game. The officials made a big mistake (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQJT8q0MMwQ). In essence, Colorado was 10-2-1 in 1990, and that doesn't cut it.

Don't even get me started on the Rocket Ismail call, either.

Georgia Tech wins the McMNC outright.

McMNC Revisions
1. Georgia Tech
2. Colorado
3. Miami-FL
4. Washington
5. Florida State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Thursday, July 17, 2008

1989 McMNC: Miami-FL Hurricanes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 33-25
2. Notre Dame: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 21-6
3. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 41-17
4. Colorado: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 6-21
5. Tennessee: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 31-27
6. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Hall of Fame, 31-14
7. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
8. USC: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 17-10
9. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 25-33
10. Illinois: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 31-21

Well, back to chaos, sort of.

Maybe.

Please?

A lot of teams with impressive resumés: Miami, Notre Dame and Tennessee have one loss, while Florida State, Auburn, USC and Illinois have two losses.

Time to shake it out!

Start with the also-rans:

Florida State has two losses to go with their outstanding 61% SOS rating. But one loss was to 5-6 Southern Mississippi, which means no way. The Seminoles beat Miami by 14 points at home in October, but it was too little, too late. Auburn lost to Florida State by eight points on the road, and if FSU is out, then Auburn is out, too. Illinois didn't win the Big Ten; they lost to Michigan by 14 points at home in November, so thanks for playing. USC won the Pac-10, but they lost to Illinois and Notre Dame, so ... not going to happen. Notre Dame lost to Miami by 17 points on the road in the last regular season game of the year (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gw1zUKJVEw8), so they're out.

Which leaves us with Tennessee and Miami. The SEC was clusterfuck in 1989: there was a three-way tie for the title, between Alabama, Auburn and the Vols. The Tide beat Tennessee and lost to Auburn; the Tigers beat the Tide and lost to the Vols; Tennessee beat Auburn and lost to Alabama. A perfect circle, people. The Tide ended up going to the Sugar Bowl, however, where they lost to Miami.

So what about the Vols?

Tennessee has a 57% SOS rating, including wins over unranked 8-4 Duke (the Ol' Ball Coach!) at home, #7 Auburn at home, 6-4-1 Akron, unranked 8-4 Mississippi at home, 6-5 Kentucky on the road, and AP #13 Arkansas (10-2) in the Cotton Bowl.

Miami has a 55% SOS rating, including wins over AP #16 Michigan State (8-4) on the road, 6-5 San Jose State at home, AP #17 Pittsburgh (8-3-1) on the road, 6-5-1 San Diego State at home, #2 Notre Dame at home and #9 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

The Vols have a better overall SOS, because Miami played 1-9-1 Cincinnati and some major conference lowlifes (2-9 Wisconsin, 4-7 California, 2-9 Missouri). The worst teams Tennessee played were 1-10 Vanderbilt and 3-7-1 UCLA.

Miami has more impressive wins, however including three wins over ranked teams in virtual road games. That's enough to compensate for the Vols' slight edge in SOS rating.

McMNC Revisions
1. Miami
2. Tennessee
3. Notre Dame
4. Colorado
5. Florida State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Monday, July 14, 2008

1988 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 34-21
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 23-3
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-7
4. Michigan: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 22-14
5. West Virginia: 11-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 21-34
6. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-3
7. USC: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 14-22
8. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-13
9. Clemson: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 13-6
10. Nebraska: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 3-23

Side note: Michigan finished #4, ahead of nine teams with better records. Maybe it's because they were four points away from their own perfect season. Michigan lost to Notre Dame by two points in South Bend, and they lost to Miami by one point in Ann Arbor. The tie was against 6-4-3 Iowa on the road. Yes, the Hawkeyes had THREE ties in 1988, all in Big Ten play, too. Also, note UCLA's finish above USC in the rankings, despite USC's head-to-head win over the Bruins. Bowl wins mean momentum, eh?

Two of the most boring consecutive years in McMNC history, no doubt.

Notre Dame is the obvious choice here: they beat #2 Miami by a point at home, they beat #4 Michigan by two points at home, they beat #7 USC by 17 points on the road in a November "#1 vs. #2" matchup of undefeated teams, and they beat #5 West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl in another matchup of undefeated teams. I mean, seriously: four wins over teams in the Top 7?! And still, their SOS rating was only 54% in 1988, because they played dogs like 3-6-2 Stanford, 3-8 Navy, and 0-11 Rice.

Who else do we even look at? Florida State has a 63% SOS rating, which is outstanding. But they lost by 31 points on the road to Miami to open the season. You can't take a thumping like that and expect to win the McMNC. If they'd lost to Miami by a point (like they did in 1987, for example), maybe the door would be open. But 31 points? Get out of here, Bobby Bowden!

Nothing else to say, except ... Go Irish!

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Miami
3. Florida State
4. West Virginia
5. USC

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

Thursday, July 10, 2008

1987 McMNC: Miami-FL Hurricanes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 20-14
2. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-28
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 14-20
4. Syracuse: 11-0-1 -- T, Sugar, 16-16
5. LSU: 10-1-1 -- W, Gator, 30-13
6. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 28-31
7. Auburn: 9-1-2 -- T, Sugar, 16-16
8. Michigan State: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 20-17
9. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 20-16
10. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-10

There really isn't much to discuss here: Miami-FL went undefeated, and they beat #2 Florida State by a point, and they beat #3 Oklahoma by six points. The only team with a shot? Syracuse, left out of the fray despite being undefeated at the end of the regular season. Oklahoma and Miami-FL were chosen to duke it out in the Orange Bowl, while the Orangemen were relegated to the Sugar Bowl. I am not sure what Syracuse's motivation would have been, knowing they could win and still not be the MNC champion.

However, the debate doesn't go very far. Winning your bowl game has been a firm requisite of the McMNC since 1936. Tying your bowl game? Never a consideration. But in the end, Syracuse had a 49% SOS rating to Miami's 55% SOS rating, so there's not even an outside shot. The Orangemen didn't beat a ranked team all season, and their best wins were over unranked 8-4 Penn State and 8-4 Pittsburgh. Miami's best wins? Uh huh.

Case closed, in perhaps the easiest McMNC discussion to date.

McMNC Revisions
1. Miami
2. Syracuse
3. Florida State
4. Oklahoma
5. LSU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Monday, July 7, 2008

1986 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Penn State: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 14-10
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 10-14
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 42-8
4. Arizona State: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 22-15
5. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 30-15
6. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 16-7
7. Ohio State: 10-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 28-12
8. Michigan: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 15-22
9. Alabama: 10-3-0 -- W, Sun, 28-6
10. LSU: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 15-30

Oh, John Shaffner.

Two notes: the Top 9 all had double-digit wins. Impressive. Also, explain to me HOW Ohio State finished ahead of Michigan in this final poll. They had an inferior record AND they lost to the Wolverines, head-to-head, at home in the regular season. I guess the bowl games really matter, eh?

Surface? It's Penn State. But we must look at other teams out of obligation to the truth. Those teams are Oklahoma and Arizona State (which proved anyone can beat Bo in a bowl game -- even John Cooper).

ASU went 5-1-1 in Pac-10 play, beating AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) and AP #18 Washington (8-3-1) for the league title (both went 5-2-1 in conference games, in yet another example of stupid, unbalanced scheduling). The Sun Devils had a 52% SOS rating, and their only loss was to AP #11 Arizona (9-3) in the last regular season game, on the road in Tucson. That knocked them out of the title hunt at the time. But what really knocks them out of this McMNC discussion is the tie: no, it wasn't against UCLA or Washington. ASU beat both teams during the season. The Sun Devils tied 3-7-1 Washington State at home on September 27, and no one has that kind of game against a losing team and still wins a McMNC.

Oklahoma's one loss was to Miami-FL on the road, also on September 27. Is there some significance there? 9/27 put through Numerology O'McMNC gives us the lucky number ... nine. Does that mean Penn State is dressed to the nines in 1986 for the McMNC? Stay tuned! Well, actually, I have the answer for you right here: the Sooners' SOS rating was 55%, which is pretty good. They beat AP #14 UCLA at home by 35 points to open the season. They beat 6-6 Minnesota in a 63-0 pounding the next week at home. They shutout 6-5 Oklahoma State at home 19-0, they whitewashed 6-5 Iowa State 38-0 on the road, they beat #5 Nebraska by three points on the road, and they pounded AP #15 Arkansas (9-3) in the Orange Bowl. The defense threw five shutouts in 12 games and only gave up 81 points on the season while scoring 508 points themselves. Amazing numbers, but alas, they did lose to a team that Penn State beat in the Fiesta Bowl. They may be the best #2 team ever (since 1983 Nebraska didn't finish #2 in the McMNC rankings). To edge out the Nittany Lions, the Sooners need a ten-point edge in SOS ...

And they won't get it, as Penn State finished with a perfect record and a 54% SOS rating -- not great, but good enough to clinch the deal here. The Nittany Lions beat 6-5 Temple at home by 30 points, they beat AP #19 Boston College (9-3) on the road by 12 points, they beat AP #9 Alabama on the road by 20 points, and they beat #2 Miami-FL in the Fiesta Bowl. Not a great schedule as noted, but it's good enough since they ran the table.

Has Paterno ever properly thanked Vinny T. for this one?!

McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Miami
3. Oklahoma
4. Arizona State
5. Nebraska

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

Thursday, July 3, 2008

1985 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 25-10
2. Michigan: 10-1-1 -- W, Fiesta, 27-23
3. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 10-25
4. Tennessee: 9-1-2 -- W, Sugar, 35-7
5. Florida: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
6. Texas A&M: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 36-16
7. UCLA: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 45-28
8. Air Force: 12-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 24-16
9. Miami: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-35
10. Iowa: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 28-45

With no BYU in the picture, it gets a lot easier, huh?

Think again.

Oklahoma, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, UCLA and Air Force all could make arguments for their ascension to the throne in 1985. But, of course -- as usual -- there are some issues with a few candidacies.

Michigan didn't win the Big Ten; that honor went to the Hawkeyes who defeated Michigan 12-10 at home mid-season (a #1 vs. #2 matchup at the time). Too bad, because the Wolverines checked in with a 59% SOS rating in 1985. Perhaps if Ronnie Harmon hadn't fumbled away the Rose Bowl, Iowa (55% SOS) would be in this discussion. But I digress ... Florida is ineligible (again) due to probation status. Technically, Florida won the SEC on the basis of their head-to-head win over Tennessee (17-10 win in the Swamp), but since the Vols also matched the Gators' SEC mark with a 5-1 record, we can still consider Tennessee as the SEC champ without overlooking anything other than the cheatenous reality that was Florida and Charley Pell. And finally, Air Force is out, because as much as I admire the cadets, their 46% SOS rating falls short of the others' marks (the war era omission of military academies is long since irrelevant, by the way).

So Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M and UCLA are in the running. In reverse order ...

UCLA: With a 57% SOS, the Bruins had a good year capped off by a big bowl win/upset over Iowa. UCLA had two Pac-10 road losses, though: by seven at unranked 7-5 Washington and by four "at" 6-6 USC. Not very impressive. The tie was on the road at Tennessee, however. Yet by losing to two unranked teams, especially the Trojans in the last regular season game, the Bruins pretty much killed their shot at the McMNC in 1985.

Texas A&M: The Aggies had a great season, marred only by losses to AP #13 Alabama (9-2-1) on the road, 23-10, and to AP #17 Baylor (9-3) on the road, 20-15. These losses to Top 20 teams on the road were counterbalanced by a 56% SOS rating overall, which included beating 7-4 Louisiana-Monroe (or whatever direction they were back then) by 14 points at home, thumping 6-5 Tulsa by 35 points at home, scraping by 6-5 SMU at home by two points, beating AP #12 Arkansas (10-2) at home by four points, thrashing 8-4 Texas at home by 32 points, and trouncing 8-4 Auburn in the Cotton Bowl by 20 points. In the end, they only beat one ranked team all season, and that's just not good enough.

Tennessee: The Vols' 58% SOS rating puts them ahead of both UCLA and A&M, and they also have fewer losses, too, than either of those 1985 also-rans. But two ties?! The aforementioned tie against #7 UCLA isn't a bad thing, nor is the second deadlock: a 6-6 home scrum against AP #19 Georgia Tech (9-2-1). Yes, both ties were at home, but those were Top 20 teams. Their loss was to cheatenous #5 Florida on the road by seven points. Heck, Tennessee was damn close to being perfect in 1985, if you look at it a certain way. They did beat 8-4 Auburn by 18 points at home, they beat AP #13 Alabama (9-2-1) on the road by two points, and they beat #9 Miami-FL by 28 points in the Sugar Bowl. They played a lot of good teams: five opponents won at least nine games, but the Vols only went 2-1-2 in those games. They certainly didn't dominate their schedule, even allowing for the Florida problem.

Oklahoma: The Sooners beat then-#1 Penn State in the Orange Bowl to even open up this debate. They beat 7-5 Minnesota on the road by six points, the beat 8-4 Texas on the road by seven points, they lost by 13 points at home to #9 Miami on October 19 (the game where Troy Aikman broke his lef), shutout 7-5 Colorado at home (31-0), beat AP #11 Nebraska (9-3) by 20 points at home, shutout 8-4 Oklahoma State on the road (13-0), beat 6-5 SMU at home by 22 points, and then beat Penn State in the Orange Bowl by 15 points. Overall, their SOS rating (56%) was dragged down by 1-10 Missouri and 1-10 Kansas State. They were fortunate Miami lost the Sugar Bowl, for otherwise the 'Canes could have stolen this McMNC from them.

In the end, it has to be Oklahoma: they did enough against a good enough schedule to be above all other teams in 1985.

McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee
5. UCLA

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Miami-FL: -1983
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977