Thursday, July 24, 2008

1991 McMNC: Washington Huskies

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Miami-FL: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 22-0
2. Washington: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 34-14
3. Penn State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 42-17
4. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 10-2
5. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Blockbuster, 30-25
6. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 14-34
7. Florida: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 28-39
8. California: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 37-13
9. East Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Peach, 37-34
10. Iowa: 10-1-1 -- T, Holiday, 13-13

Only four teams to consider here: Miami, Washington, Alabama and East Carolina (courtesy). But the Tide get rolled, because Florida won the SEC and the head-to-head matchup (35-0!).

East Carolina had a 48% SOS rating, and their loss was to 6-6 Illinois on the road by a touchdown. They did beat AP #11 Syracuse (10-2) and AP #24 North Carolina State (9-3), however. But they can't overcome the loss with such a low SOS rating.

So, obviously, we're down to two unbeaten, untied teams for the 1991 McMNC. Let the debate begin ...

Miami had a 54% SOS rating, with wins over AP #21 Tulsa (10-2) on the road by 24 points, #3 Penn State at home by six points, unranked 6-5 West Virginia by 24 points at home, #4 Florida State on the road by one point (of course), unranked 8-4-1 San Diego State at home by 27 points, and AP #15 Nebraska (9-2-1) in the Orange Bowl. The dogs on their schedule? 0-10-1 Oklahoma State and 2-9 Cal State Long Beach. They beat four ranked teams, including #3 and #4 by a combined seven points. The Hurricanes beat six winning teams in 1991.

Washington had a 52% SOS rating, with wins over AP #22 Stanford (8-4) by 35 points on the road, #15 Nebraska on the road by 15 points, unranked 7-4 Kansas State by 53 points at home, #8 California by seven points on the road, unranked 6-5 Arizona State by 28 points at home, and #6 Michigan by 20 points in the Rose Bowl. The schedule dog? 1-10 Oregon State. The Huskies, too, beat four ranked teams, including #6 and #8 by a combined 27 points. Washington also beat six winning teams in 1991.

Common opponents? Nebraska, for starters. Washington's win over Nebraska in Lincoln on September 21 has to be given more significance, since the Huskers were at home and probably believing they had a chance at the national title. By the time the Orange Bowl rolled around, Nebraska knew they had no shot at the championship, especially in Miami's backyard. Another common opponent? Arizona. Miami beat the 4-7 Wildcats by 27 points on the road, while Washington beat them 54-0 at home.

Miami has the slight SOS edge, but Washington takes the common opponents' edge and the better wins edge (because of dominance in those wins). The Huskies also have a better bowl win, since Miami was at home in the Orange Bowl and playing a lesser team.

This really is a close one to call, but in the end, the Huskies were a better team. They outscored their opponents by 32 points per game, while Miami only outscored their opponents by 24 points per game. Consider the narrow difference in SOS and the closeness of the schedule strength breakdown above, and you can see the Huskies deserve the McMNC for 1991.

Two years in a row, the UPI got it right. Why are they out of business?!

McMNC Revisions
1. Washington
2. Miami-FL
3. Alabama
4. East Carolina
5. Penn State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, =1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988

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