Thursday, February 28, 2008

1949 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 10-0-0 -- None
2. Oklahoma: 11-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 35-0
3. California: 10-1-0 -- L, Rose, 14-17
4. Army: 9-0-0 -- None
5. Rice: 10-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 27-13
6. Ohio State: 7-1-2 -- W, Rose, 17-14
7. Michigan: 6-2-1 -- None
8. Minnesota: 7-2-0 -- None
9. LSU: 8-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 0-35
10. Pacific: 11-0-0 -- None

So, there's no three-peat here, that's for certain. And Cal lost the Rose Bowl again with a perfect season on the line. See? Bowl games do matter, boys and girls. Otherwise, Cal would be looking at multiple titles. Tennessee knows the same pain.

This comes down to Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Pacific. Let's peak at them, in reverse AP poll order:

Pacific is an outsider here, of course. But their SOS was solid: opponents won 55% of their games, but the opponents may not have been playing good teams, either. Pacific played ONE road game, at Loyola Marymount, too. It was a very stacked schedule against regional teams. Outscoring your opponents 412-46 is impressive, but finishing 10th was a reward for them.

Oklahoma won the Big Seven, played a good schedule (opponents' WP was .520) and won a bowl game in a blowout over a Top 10 team playing in its backyard. Oklahoma only beat three ranked teams all season (#15 Santa Clara at home, #20 Missouri on the road, #9 LSU in the Sugar Bowl), but the thrashing of LSU in the bowl game says a lot. Also of note, Santa Clara won the Orange Bowl by beating #11 Kentucky and Bear Bryant, 21-13.

Notre Dame also played a good schedule: opponents won 50% of their games. The best Irish win? They beat #16 North Carolina, 42-6, in South Bend. They also beat #19 Michigan State by 13 points in East Lansing. Other than that, they really don't have any other impressive wins. Notre Dame didn't play anyone as good as Santa Clara, either.

Oklahoma played a better schedule, they played more ranked teams, and they had more impressive wins. They also put it all on the line in a bowl game.

Case closed. Sorry, Notre Dame.

McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Notre Dame
3. Pacific
4. Rice
5. California

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Oklahoma: +1949
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949

Monday, February 25, 2008

1948 McMNC: Michigan Wolverines

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Michigan: 9-0-0 -- None
2. Notre Dame: 9-0-1 -- None
3. North Carolina: 9-1-1 -- L, Sugar, 6-14
4. California: 10-1-0 -- L, Rose, 14-20
5. Oklahoma: 10-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-6
6. Army: 8-0-1 -- None
7. Northwestern: 8-2-0 -- W, Rose, 20-14
8. Georgia: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 28-41
9. Oregon: 9-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 13-21
10. SMU: 9-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 21-13
11. Clemson: 11-0-0 -- W, Gator, 24-23
12. Vanderbilt: 8-2-1 -- None
13. Tulane: 9-1-0 -- None
14. Michigan State: 6-2-2 -- None
15. Mississippi: 8-1-0 -- None

There are only three teams here truly under consideration: #1 Michigan, #2 Notre Dame and #11 Clemson. Everyone else gets trumped one way or another. And all of this would have been moot if Cal had just won the Rose Bowl. Id0ts.

Let's take them in reverse order:

Clemson had a fine season, winning the Southern Conference and a bowl game. But it was lower-tier bowl game for the era, and they beat an unranked Missouri team by only a point. While Mizzou had a fine season at 8-3, they weren't ranked in the Top 20 even when they were 8-2 before the bowl game. Furthermore, Clemson's SOS was poor in 1948. Opponents won only 41% of their games, and the only winning teams Clemson played were Boston College (5-2-2), #20 Wake Forest (6-4), and Missouri. Overall, a good season with six road wins, but objectively speaking, it wasn't a great season.

Let's see how it stacks up against the other two schools under consideration.

Notre Dame played just as weak a schedule as Clemson did, actually. Opponents won only 43% of their games. Notre Dame played four winning teams (including a win over #7 Northwestern), going 3-0-1 against them. But they also played 0-8-1 Navy, 2-7-1 Washington and 2-8 Nebraska. The Irish did play six road games, though, which is impressive, although their last road game -- the trip to Southern California -- cost them with the one tie. Of course, they didn't see any bowl action.

Michigan played the best schedule of the three teams, winning the Western Conference (Big Nine still) and beating opponents who won 54% of their games. They beat #14 Michigan State on the road (an OOC game then), they beat #9 Oregon at home, #7 Northwestern at home, and #16 Minnesota on the road. While their "road" trips were all weak, they played four of them to have a semi-balanced schedule. They also had five shutouts on the season, including the wins over ranked Oregon and Northwestern.

Comparative scores for Notre Dame and Michigan? Notre Dame beat Purdue by a point at home, while Michigan beat Purdue by 40 points on the road. Notre Dame beat Sparty by 19 at home, while Michigan beat Sparty by six on the road -- this was the closest any team came to beating the Wolverines, by the way. Notre Dame beat Indiana by 36 on the "road", while Michigan beat Indiana by 54 points at home. Notre Dame beat Northwestern by five points at home, while Michigan shut them out 28-0 at home.

No matter which way you dice it, the Wolverines were the best team in 1948, hands down -- bowl or no bowl. They also become the first back-to-back McMNCs.

McMNC Revisions
1. Michigan
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. SMU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947

Thursday, February 21, 2008

1947 McMNC: Michigan Wolverines

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 9-0-0 -- None
2. Michigan: 10-0-0 -- W, Rose, 49-0
3. SMU: 9-0-2 -- T, Cotton, 13-13
4. Penn State: 9-0-1 -- T, Cotton, 13-13
5. Texas: 10-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-7
6. Alabama: 8-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-27
7. Penn: 7-0-1 -- None
8. USC: 7-2-1 -- L, Rose, 0-49
9. North Carolina: 8-2-0 -- None
10. Georgia Tech: 10-1-0 -- W, Orange, 20-14

This is the year of the "Who's No. 1?" poll, when the AP caved in to pressure for re-vote after the bowl games. Alas, poor Michigan. They can claim the 1947 AP title all they want, but it's not theirs. It's Notre Dame's title of record.

But we're not the AP, and so Michigan has new life for 1947. And why not? Two teams finish unbeaten and untied, they didn't play each other, and only one of them played a bowl game. It's the usual McMNC non-debate, right? Too bad Penn State didn't win the Cotton Bowl, or else we'd have a three-way going on here!

Michigan has the edge in SOS: 48% to 39% of opponents' games won. Michigan also has the edge in common opponents, as they beat USC and Northwestern by a combined 98-21 score with both games on the road, while the Irish only beat the Trojans and the Wildcats by a combined 64-26 with both games on the road. But Notre Dame had the Heisman Trophy winner (Johnny Lujack) on their team, and well, they were the defending AP champions, too. They had a built-in voting carryover from 1946, to be sure.

But there's just no way in hell Notre Dame was a better team than Michigan in 1947. While the Irish were resting on their laurels at home over Christmas break, the Wolverines were preparing to go west for New Year's Day, to take on #8 USC in their backyard. And the Wolverines took the Trojans out behind the woodshed. Yes, Notre Dame beat the Trojans out there, too, by a pretty good score, and USC certainly had more to play for against the Irish, considering the Trojans had zero losses at the time. A 38-7 win for Notre Dame is comparable to the 49-0 win the Wolverines posted over the Trojans, considering USC's probable disinterest in the game having already blown their season against the Irish. So whatever.

But the SOS debate is clear, and while both defenses were stellar barely giving up more than 50 points on the season (Notre Dame gave up 52 points in nine games, while Michigan gave up 53 points in ten games), the Wolverines scored 103 more points than the Irish did in 1947 -- against a better schedule. And again, they laid it on the line in a bowl game against a decent opponent (albeit a non-motivated opponent).

Considering their 1946 AP title (which I've already stripped them of) and the Heisman Trophy vote in 1947, it's clear why AP voters were sentimentally voting for the Irish. Me? I have no sentiment, either way, especially since I know Notre Dame will get a few of these back later in the century.

Michigan gets the 1947 McMNC.

McMNC Revisions
1. Michigan
2. Notre Dame
3. Penn State
4. SMU
5. Tie -- Texas and Georgia Tech

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Michigan: +1947
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947

Sunday, February 17, 2008

1946 McMNC: Georgia Bulldogs

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 8-0-1 -- None
2. Army: 9-0-1 -- None
3. Georgia: 11-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 20-10
4. UCLA: 10-1-0 -- L, Rose, 14-45
5. Illinois: 8-2-0 -- W, Rose, 45-14
6. Michigan: 6-2-1 -- None
7. Tennessee: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 0-8
8. LSU: 9-1-1 -- T, Cotton, 0-0
9. North Carolina: 8-2-1 -- L, Sugar, 10-20
10. Rice: 9-2-0 -- W, Orange, 8-0

Back to a mere Top 10, this is perhaps our second year in a row with an easy, obvious decision. Only one team finished unbeaten, untied and bowl-victorious: Georgia. But we also should look at Notre Dame and see what their credentials are. After all, the voters thought they were worthy of something.

Notre Dame's schedule strength was average in 1946, as their opponents won 51% of their games. But Notre Dame did beat #5 Illinois on the road by 20 points. That says a lot about the quality of Illinois AND UCLA right there. It was a weak Top 5, that's for sure. Notre Dame's tie, of course, came against #2 Army. The only other winning teams on Notre Dame's schedule were 5-4 Iowa and 6-4 USC. Teams like Navy (1-8), Purdue (2-6-1) and Tulane (3-7) filled out the schedule; hence, the average SOS.

Georgia's SOS was slightly worse with an opponents' winning percentage of .480, but it's not like they were playing cupcakes. They beat 7-3 Kentucky, coached by Bear Bryant, for example. They beat 7-4 Alabama, not coached by Bear Bryant. They beat 0-9 Florida, too, because in the SEC, they just beat each other up! In all seriousness, they also beat #11 Georgia Tech (9-2, and winners of the Oil Bowl -- yes, you read that right) and #9 North Carolina in the Sugar Bowl. Like the Irish, the schedule had its ups and downs, but they're close enough to keep both teams in the hunt.

The best team Notre Dame faced? Army, and they tied a military All-Star team on the road. The best team Georgia faced? Probably North Carolina, and they beat them by ten points in a big bowl game. Army's SOS was amazing, with a 61% OWP, and North Carolina's was pretty good, too, at 56% overall. Both these teams played tougher schedules than the teams ranked ahead of them. But Army? Barely beat Navy, winning by three points. And UNC tied 3-4-3 Virginia Tech. So both have their warts.

In the end, this comes down to the bowl game. Georgia laid a perfect record on the line against a quality opponent, and they won. Notre Dame had a tie, and they didn't have to defend their #1 ranking in a bowl game. Advantage? Georgia. Notre Dame just didn't have enough in the regular season to compensate for the lack of a bowl win.

McMNC Revisions
1. Georgia
2. Notre Dame
3. LSU
4. Illinois
5. UCLA

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941

Thursday, February 14, 2008

1945 McMNC: University of Alabama

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Army: 9-0-0 -- None
2. Alabama: 10-0-0 -- W, Rose, 34-14
3. Navy: 7-1-1 -- None
4. Indiana: 9-0-1 -- None
5. Oklahoma A&M: 9-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 33-13
6. Michigan: 7-3-0 -- None
7. St. Mary's: 7-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 13-33
8. Pennsylvania: 6-2-0 -- None
9. Notre Dame: 7-2-1 -- None
10. Texas: 10-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 40-27
11. USC: 7-4-0 -- L, Rose, 14-34
12. Ohio State: 7-2-0 -- None
13. Duke: 6-2-0 -- None
14. Tennessee: 8-1-0 -- None
15. LSU: 7-2-0 -- None

So, we're finally clear of the military-base teams, which clears up the Top 15 a little more. But we still have the military academy problem, and since the 1945 teams were comprised of those who joined up during WWII, these still represent All-Star teams. Apologies again. So, Alabama, Indiana, and Oklahoma A&M are the teams under consideration for the 1945 McMNC.

The Tide had an impressive schedule in 1945, as opponents won 57% of their games. Two Alabama wins were over military base teams that went a combined 0-3 in 1945, but the 6-0 SEC record is impressive (wins over #14 Tennessee and #18 Georgia). The Rose Bowl win over #11 USC is very good, too. Indiana won the Western Conference, playing six road games overall and tying only 4-4-2 Northwestern on the road. But Indiana's schedule was not as good as Alabama's (.480 opponents' WP), and they didn't play in a bowl game. Oklahoma A&M fares better than Indiana, as their schedule was slightly tougher (.490 OWP) and they won a bowl game. But the only winning team the Cowboys beat prior to their bowl win was #17 Tulsa (8-3). They did beat a few .500 teams along the way, to help that OWP get close to .500, but it just isn't enough. While both Alabama and Oklahoma A&M beat ranked teams by 20 points in their bowl games, overall the Tide played the tougher schedule in 1945.

This is a short analysis, because it's pretty clear that the Tide deserve the McMNC for 1945.

McMNC Revisions
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma A&M
3. Indiana
4. Texas
5. St. Mary's

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Notre Dame: -1943
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941

Monday, February 11, 2008

1944 McMNC: Ohio State University

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Army: 9-0-0 -- None
2. Ohio State: 9-0-0 -- None
3. Randolph Field: 12-0-0 -- W, Treasury Bowl, 13-6
4. Navy: 6-3-0 -- None
5. Bainbridge NTS: 10-0-0 -- None
6. Iowa Pre-Flight: 10-1-0 -- None
7. USC: 8-0-2 -- W, Rose, 25-0
8. Michigan: 8-2-0 -- None
9. Notre Dame: 8-2-0 -- None
10. March Field: 7-1-2 -- None
11. Duke: 6-4-0 -- W, Sugar, 29-26
12. Tennessee: 7-1-1 -- L, Rose, 0-25
13. Georgia Tech: 8-3-0 -- L, Orange, 12-26
14. Norman Pre-Flight: 6-0-0 -- None
15. Illinois: 5-4-1 -- None

Same problem as 1943, clearly, and if someone can explain how a team barely above .500 makes the Top 15, I would appreciate that. Anyway, on to the debate at hand!

As noted in the 1943 analysis, I am not considering war-time military academies or bases in my analysis. Those teams were not true college teams, and I mean no disrespect from that statement as explained previously. Ohio State went unbeaten and untied, and USC didn't lose a game. No one else really deserves consideration. So let's break down those two teams.

Ohio State: Opponents won 55% of their games, and the Buckeyes beat three ranked teams in 1994 (#17 Great Lakes NTS, #15 Illinois and #8 Michigan). Minnesota and Indiana also had winning records amongst Ohio State's victims, so the schedule strength was solid. The only problem I have with the schedule is that EIGHT games were played at home. EIGHT. The only road trip was to Madison to face the 3-6 Badgers. War-time travel restrictions or not, that's pathetic. And, of course, they didn't play a bowl game.

USC: For the record, the Trojans' schedule was messed up, too, due to war-time travel restrictions. They played UCLA and Cal twice, actually; both were home-and-home affairs, where the Trojans hosted first before traveling (across town for the UCLA game, of course, giving USC only one true road game on the year, too) for the second match-ups at the end of the season. UCLA was 4-5-1 and Cal was 3-6-1 in 1944, which makes the home ties particularly bad for the Trojans, although in the road rematches, USC rolled by a combined score of 72-13. The Trojans also beat #19 St. Mary's Pre-Flight and 5-3 Washington during the season, but overall, the SOS was mediocre (.450 win percentage for opponents). The only reason the Trojans are in this discussion is because of their 25-point, shutout win over previously unbeaten Tennessee in the Rose Bowl.

Let's look at the Vols to determine the "power" of that USC win: first, Georgia Tech won the SEC in 1944, with a perfect 4-0 league mark, while the Vols only went 5-0-1 in SEC play. Tennessee tied Alabama, 0-0, at home, and the Tide went 5-2-2 in 1944. Not a bad tie, per se, but the Vols didn't win the SEC as a result. Tennessee's SOS was only slightly better than USC's (opponents won 47% of their games), and the only winning team the Vols beat all year was 4-3 Florida. So the Vols' unbeaten record really wasn't all that impressive in 1944, making USC's bowl win less impressive than it might have been. But it was still a bowl win, and Ohio State doesn't have one of those.

In the end, however, just like it did in 1939, we have an obvious reality: USC's ties to weak teams just cannot be overlooked, so Ohio State gets the nod for 1944. Congrats to the Buckeyes.

McMNC Revisions
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Tennessee
4. Michigan
5. Notre Dame

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Notre Dame: -1943
Army: -1944
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941

Thursday, February 7, 2008

1943 McMNC: Purdue University

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 9-1-0 -- None
2. Iowa Pre-Flight: 9-1-0 -- None
3. Michigan: 8-1-0 -- None
4. Navy: 8-1-0 -- None
5. Purdue: 9-0-0 -- None
6. Great Lakes NTS: 10-2-0 -- None
7. Duke: 8-1-0 -- None
8. DelMonte Pre-Flight: 7-1-0 -- None
9. Northwestern: 6-2-0 -- None
10. March Field: 9-1-0 -- None
11. Army: 7-2-1 -- None
12. Washington: 4-1-0 -- L, Rose, 0-29
13. Georgia Tech: 8-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 20-18
14. Texas: 7-1-1 -- T, Cotton, 7-7
15. Tulsa: 6-1-1 -- L, Sugar, 18-20

I went a little deeper in the AP Poll this year, for reasons that should be obvious. I want to make something clear here: I am not against the military at all, but these military-base teams were basically All-Star teams made up of the best and brightest who got drafted for World War II service. To consider them for the McMNC just is not right, and that is not a statement on their patriotism or bravery for what they did for our country. I'm going to include Army and Navy in this equation for the war years, since they, too, were basically fielding All-Star teams. It will be an issue to discuss in post-WWII seasons, too, but specifically for the WWII years, they are not under my consideration for the McMNC. If you don't like that or agree with it, I'm sorry: we'll have to agree to disagree.

So the teams that I am going to consider are Notre Dame, Michigan, Purdue, Duke and Texas. The Longhorns tied their bowl game against 1-1-1 Randolph Field, so that bowl game is kind of weird to assess. An All-Star team that played only two games before getting invited to the Sugar Bowl? Whatever. Travel restrictions, etc., were in effect, as USC beat Washington in the Rose Bowl. The Trojans were 8-2-0, but somehow didn't rate in the AP Poll at all. Go figure. This is a messed-up season, for sure.

Michigan and Purdue shared the Western Conference title, both with 6-0 conference records. Obviously, they didn't play each other. Michigan's only loss was to Notre Dame, at home, by 23 points, so that eliminates them from the McMNC picture automatically, right? But Purdue, with its unblemished record overall, would be the Western Conference representative, anyway, in any McMNC debate. For the record, Michigan beat Ohio State at home by 38 points, while Purdue beat the Buckeyes on the road by 23 points. Michigan beat Minnesota at home by 43 points, while Purdue beat the Gophers on the road by seven points. Michigan beat Illinois on the road by 36 points, while Purdue beat the Illini at home by 19 points. But Purdue did beat Wisconsin on the road by 32 points, while Michigan beat the Badgers at home by 27 points. Comparative scores aside, Purdue went undefeated, and Michigan did not. Purdue even played six games on the road, while only getting three at home. That's impressive, even for a war year. Michigan? Six games at home, only three on the road. Purdue gets the edge here, despite a weaker OOC schedule. Besides, Michigan cannot win the McMNC against Notre Dame, so they're out anyway.

That leaves us with Notre Dame, Texas and Duke. The only Irish loss was their last game of the year, a 19-14 loss on the road to the aforementioned Great Lakes NTS. Is it fair to penalize the Irish for that loss against an All-Star team? Since Notre Dame also played Army, Navy and Iowa Pre-Flight, they did beat a lot of good teams in 1943. Texas gets the axe here, because their one loss was to Southwestern University (TX), at home -- and that's just inexcusable. As for Duke, their only loss was by one point to Navy on the road. So both Notre Dame and Duke lost on the road to military All-Star teams, and both played pretty tough schedules. The Irish opponents had a winning percentage of .667, while Duke's opponents won 61% of their games. The Irish outscored their opponents 340-69, while Duke outscored its opponents 335-34. In the end, though, Notre Dame beat Navy, 33-6, while Duke lost to the Middies, 14-13. That says a lot to me. Sorry, Duke, but you lose this one.

So it comes down to Purdue or Notre Dame. The Irish definitely played the tougher schedule, since Purdue's opponents only won 40% of their games. But Purdue did beat Great Lakes NTS, 23-13, on the road -- exactly where the Irish lost to them. Purdue's OOC was weak, otherwise, as they faced 3-4-1 Marquette and 2-6-2 Camp Grant. Notre Dame also played six road games in 1943, so both these teams are really worthy of the McMNC. Both teams played at Wisconsin and shut the Badgers out: Notre Dame won by 50, Purdue won by 32. Both teams beat Illinois at home: Notre Dame won by 47, Purdue won by 19. In the end, it comes down to two things: Purdue went undefeated, and the Boilermakers beat the team that beat Notre Dame.

Congratulations, Purdue. You're the 1943 McMNC and champion of one of the weirdest seasons of college football we'll ever see. And don't worry, Notre Dame, you're going to get a lot of these McMNCs by the time I'm through with the process.

McMNC Revisions
1. Purdue
2. Notre Dame
3. Michigan
4. Duke
5. Texas


RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Ohio State: -1942
Notre Dame: -1943
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941

Monday, February 4, 2008

1942 McMNC: University of Tennessee

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Ohio State: 9-1-0 -- None
2. Georgia: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 9-0
3. Wisconsin: 8-1-1 -- None
4. Tulsa: 10-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Georgia Tech: 9-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 7-14
6. Notre Dame: 7-2-2 -- None
7. Tennessee: 9-1-1 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
8. Boston College: 8-2-0 -- L, Orange, 21-37
9. Michigan: 7-3-0 -- None
10. Alabama: 8-3-0 -- W, Orange, 37-21

Side note: Three teams tied for the 19th spot in the AP Poll in 1942. Minnesota (5-4-0), Holy Cross (5-4-1) and Penn State (6-1-1) evidently were inseparable in the voters' minds.

Side note II: This being a "war" year, a lot of colleges scheduled games against military bases, like Fort Knox, Camp Grant, Great Lakes Naval Training Station, Iowa Pre-Flight, etc. This creates a tough challenge in assessing schedule strength, and in future seasons, also creates some havoc with rankings assessment.

This is about four teams teams: Ohio State, Georgia, Wisconsin and Tennessee. Each finished with one loss (or one loss and a tie), and they either won a bowl game or didn't play in one.

Let's start by breaking down the conference matchups to determine who our top two teams are in this fray:

Ohio State v. Wisconsin: The Badgers won the head-to-head meeting at home, 17-7, handing Ohio State their only loss of the season. But Ohio State, with its 5-1 conference record, is the 1942 Western (Big Ten) Conference champion of record. Why? Because Wisconsin only went 4-1 in conference play. I am not going to fault the Badgers for an uneven schedule problem here, so let's do a comparative analysis of their Western Conference games in 1942. Both teams shut out 1-8-0 Purdue; Wisconsin lost, 6-0, to 6-4-0 Iowa on the road. Both teams beat Northwestern on the road, although Ohio State did so by 14 points while Wisconsin only beat the Wildcats by one point. The Buckeyes beat #9 Michigan by 14 points; the Badgers beat #19 Minnesota by 14 points. And although it wasn't a conference game, the Badgers' tie came against #6 Notre Dame at home -- no shame there. Ohio State's OOC schedule? Fort Knox (1-5-0, see note above), 5-5-1 Southern California, 3-6-0 Pittsburgh and 7-3-0 Iowa Pre-Flight. Wisconsin's OOC schedule included 1-5-0 Camp Grant, 7-2-0 Marquette, 8-3-1 Missouri, Notre Dame and 8-3-1 Great Lakes Naval Training Station. This is tough, though, because Wisconsin has the H2H win, which the voters in 1942 clearly ignored. In the end, that has to count for something, so Wisconsin wins this Western Conference showdown to move forward in the debate.

Georgia vs. Tennessee: The Bulldogs are the SEC champion of record in 1942, with a 6-1 conference record. But again, we have an uneven schedule problem, for the Volunteers finished 4-1 in conference play. Georgia lost to #16 Auburn (6-4-1) by 14 points at home, while Tennessee lost to #10 Alabama by eight points on the road. Clearly, if you're looking for a "better" loss, Tennessee has it. To me, that gives this SEC matchup edge to the Volunteers, since they lost on the road to a better team by fewer points. But which team had the better bowl win? Should that matter since conference play is regular season? Georgia shutout #13 UCLA with its 7-3-0 record in the Rose Bowl, for all intents and purposes a very impressive "road" win. Tennessee knocked off previously unbeaten, untied Tulsa in the Sugar Bowl. Tulsa played a relatively weak schedule, although they did beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma A&M and Arkansas. But again, the bowl win is for another comparison, not the conference superiority comparison. So Tennessee advances to the final McMNC battle against Wisconsin.

So that's where I arrive: #3 Wisconsin at 8-1-1 with no bowl win, against #7 Tennessee at 9-1-1 with a Sugar Bowl win. Maybe you saw this coming, but I have to give it to the Vols for the bowl game. They put it out there against #4 Tulsa, an unblemished team, in the bowl game. And while it may not be Wisconsin's "fault" they couldn't play in a bowl game, they don't get points for staying at home and resting on laurels, either.

Therefore, in somewhat of an upset and a decision sure to raise controversy in the Big Ten area, the Tennessee Volunteers get the 1942 McMNC.

[Paul Brown hates me, but I love him a lot nonetheless.]


McMNC Revisions
1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Wisconsin
4. Ohio State
5. Tulsa


RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Ohio State: -1942
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941