Friday, January 8, 2010

2009 McMNC: Alabama Crimson Tide

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Alabama (14-0); Won BCS Bowl, 37-21
2. Texas (13-1); Lost BCS Bowl, 21-37
3. Florida (13-1); Won Sugar Bowl, 51-24
4. Boise State (14-0); Won Fiesta Bowl, 17-10
5. Ohio State (11-2); Won Rose Bowl, 27-16
6. TCU (12-1); Lose Fiesta Bowl, 10-17
7. Iowa (11-2); Won Orange Bowl, 24-14
8. Cincinnati (12-1); Lost Sugar Bowl, 24-51
9. Penn State (11-2); Won Citrus Bowl, 19-17
10. Virginia Tech (10-3); Won Peach Bowl, 37-14

The BCS did a snow job this year on the American public, eliminating as many claims to the throne as they could -- and sadly, it worked. With five undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, denying any of their resumes for the "title" game constituted fraud.

But Cincinnati, TCU and Texas all lost their perfect seasons with no-shows in their bowl game. The Bearcats coach disappeared for greener pastures, and when Cincinnati's second-in-command also bolted for another job before the Sugar Bowl, they were cooked. TCU had the best claim to the title game gone unheard, but by losing to Boise State and its lesser claim, the Horned Frogs helped the BCS. Texas lost its quarterback and its chances early in the Second Rose Bowl, making Alabama's claim rather dubious. After all, beating Texas is easier when they're missing the winningest QB in NCAA history.

Yet Texas still did a better job against The Tide than Florida did, despite having a freshman QB playing for 58+ minutes.

So it does come down to Alabama and Boise State. Both teams ran the table; both teams beat undefeated rivals in a BCS bowl game. Both teams claim wins over other BCS conference champions.

How to separate the two? BCS apologists will claim The Tide played a better schedule. They did, but Boise beat six bowl teams in 2009. Their schedule didn't "suck". Alabama beat ten bowl teams, which is more impressive, although considering six SEC teams wouldn't have qualified for bowls without their patsy OOC schedules (see below), that claim is somewhat hollow.

South Carolina (7-6, lost bowl game): Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State
Kentucky (7-6, lost bowl game): Miami-OH, Louisiana-Monroe, and Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas (8-5, won bowl game because ECU couldn't kick a FG): Missouri State, Eastern Michigan and Troy
Mississippi (9-4, won bowl game because Oklahoma State couldn't hold on to the ball): Memphis, Southeastern Louisiana, UAB and Northern Arizona
Auburn (8-5, won bowl game because Northwestern couldn't kick a FG): Louisiana Tech, Ball State and Furman
Tennessee (7-6, lost bowl game): Western Kentucky, Ohio and Memphis


So Alabama played a marginally better schedule, but it did beat better teams by bigger margins. And that is what stands out most.

Yet it's a unique situation for the McMNC, where you have two undefeated teams with impressive bowl wins over undefeated conference champs, etc. When was the last time that happened? It's so rare you get even two undefeated teams into a potential MNC game, let alone two potential MNC games.

Has it ever happened before? The last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was 2004, and the BCS shunted Utah to the Fiesta Bowl instead of letting them play Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. Before that, the last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was ... 1992 (sort of). Alabama and Miami-FL played a MNC game, but Texas A&M was contractually obligated to the Cotton Bowl and Michigan (with its three ties) was obligated to the Rose Bowl.

Not quite the same.

Thirty years ago (1979), four unbeatens remained: #2 Alabama, #3 USC (albeit with a tie), #1 Ohio State and #4 Florida State. The Rose Bowl gave us a great matchup, but the Tide played #6 Arkansas in the Sugar instead of FSU, and the Seminoles played in the Orange Bowl. Not sure what the politics were there, but it was a golden opportunity missed.

In 1973, there were SEVEN unbeaten teams at the end of the regular season. The Sugar Bowl had Notre Dame and Alabama, which was good. But Ohio State (with its tie) had to play in the Rose Bowl, while Oklahoma was on probation and ineligible for a bowl. Penn State played in the Orange Bowl, but not against Miami-OH or Michigan (with a tie).

Anyway, you get the point. This 2009 was VERY unique, and it SCREAMED for a plus-one format. And of course, we don't get it.

Looking back at these years above, what did I do with the McMNCs? Went by schedule strength and bowl-win power to determine the tiebreak. Nothing different this year, which is no knock on Boise State. They were one of the best programs of the 2000s, and they already have an McMNC this decade (2006).

Overall, there isn't much to say here; this isn't 2006, where the Broncos were the only undefeated team in the country after winning the Fiesta Bowl. While I would have no qualm with Boise State claiming a piece of the MNC, I do think Alabama was the best team in college football this year by objective standards consistently used here.

Congratulations to the Crimson Tide on their first McMNC since 1992.

McMNC Revisions:

1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. TCU
4. Texas
5. Florida


RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993