2014 McMNC: Ohio State Buckeyes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Ohio State (14-1): Won CFP Bowl, 42-20
2. Oregon (13-2): Lost CFP Bowl, 42-20
3. TCU (12-1): Won Peach Bowl, 42-3
4. Alabama (12-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 35-42
5t. Florida State (13-1): Lost Rose Bowl, 20-59
5t. Michigan State (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 42-41
7. Baylor (11-2): Lost Cotton Bowl, 41-42
8. Georgia Tech (11-3): Won Orange Bowl, 49-34
9. Georgia (10-3): Won Belk Bowl, 37-14
10. UCLA (10-3): Won Alamo Bowl, 40-35

The first year of the four-team playoff is in the books, and because the committee got the wrong four teams in, well ... this is why I post. We really need an eight-team playoff, at least, but it will have to wait for another ten years before I can stop this blog. Great.

The dilemma for the College Football Playoff committee was Florida State: The Seminoles were undefeated and the defending champs. They had to be in the playoff, even if they were an inferior team in their own conference to Georgia Tech.  FSU beat the Yellow Jackets, 37-35, in the ACC title game, so that was that. But clearly, the Seminoles did not belong in the Final Four. Either TCU or Baylor did, by any independent analysis.  But again, FSU left the committee in a bind, since it would have been impossible to leave the undefeated, defending champs out in the first year of the playoff format. The logic is sound, even if it did mess up the whole thing.

Even if TCU had made it into the FInal Four, the right two teams did end up playing for the title. Still, we have to look at TCU and Ohio State here in terms of their schedules, their margins of victory, and everything else we can. 

First, SOS: The Buckeyes played a significantly better schedule, according to Sports-Reference.com (our new standard of measurement now). In fact, only Baylor played a worse schedule among teams that finished in the Top 10. So the edge there going to Ohio State.

Big wins: TCU beat five teams that were ranked at the time of the games by an average of 19.6 points per contest. That's impressive, although the Horned Frogs; a 39-point win in the Peach Bowl skews the tabulation a little bit. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes beat four ranked teams by an average of 25 points per victory; a 59-0 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game is the outlier there. The edge again goes to Ohio State.

The losses?  TCU lost by three points on the road to Baylor in a game it should have won. Ohio State lost by 14 points at home to Virginia Tech, a team that finished the year just 7-6 after a minor-bowl victory. The Horned Frogs definitely have the edge there, big time, as that Buckeyes loss was just inexcusable. But the old adage rings true: Better to lose early than late. TCU's loss came in October, and it cost the Horned Frogs an outright Big XII championship—which still might not have been enough to overcome FSU's instinctual edges.

There's little doubt TCU might have given Ohio State a better fight in the CFP title game than Oregon did, but that's not saying much. In comparisons, the Buckeyes still get the edge over TCU by enough to make this a very comfortable decision. But it's a game we would have liked to see.

Congratulations, Ohio State.

McMNC Revision:

1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012, =2014
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012