Thursday, May 29, 2008

1975 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 14-6
2. Arizona State: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 17-14
3. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-6
4. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 10-23
5. UCLA: 9-2-1 -- W, Rose, 23-10
6. Texas: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 38-21
7. Arkansas: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 31-10
8. Michigan: 8-2-2 -- L, Orange, 6-14
9. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 14-17
10. Penn State: 9-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 6-13

The last nine McMNCs have been won by only four schools (USC, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Ohio State). The era of dynasties? Perhaps. Maybe Miami-OH should be considered one of them? They finished ranked #12 with a 11-1 record, a 48% SOS rating and another Citrus Bowl win. Their only loss was a one-point road loss to 7-4 Michigan State, finishing a 32-1-1 stretch from 1973-1975.

But I digress.

Oklahoma, off probation, gets consideration here, as do Arizona State and Alabama. Ohio State blew their season in the Rose Bowl (sound familiar?), of course, opening the door for this debate.

Let's start with the Tide: They had an SOS rating of 49%, and their one loss was the first game of the year -- a 13-point home setback to 6-5 Missouri. The Tigers lost to Michigan, Nebraska and Oklahoma in this season, so this is NOT a good loss for 'Bama. However, the Tide did beat 7-4 Vanderbilt on the road by 33 points, hey beat 6-5 Mississippi by 26 points at home, they beat 6-5 Washington in a 52-0 shutout at home, they beat 7-5 Tennessee by 23 points at home, they beat 6-4-1 Mississippi State by 11 points at home, and they beat 7-4 Southern Miss at home by 21 points. Alas, the only ranked team they beat all year? Penn State in the Sugar Bowl. But seriously, they played a lot of winning teams in 1975. Their SOS was buried by 1-10 TCU.

Arizona State had a great season, but their SOS was only 44%. However, they did go undefeated, which is more than Alabama can say. They, too, beat 6-5 Washington at home (but only by 23 points), and they, too, had their SOS sunk by TCU (as well as 1-10 UTEP and 1-10 Utah -- not to mention 2-9 Wyoming!). The Sun Devils did register wins over 6-5 BYU (20-0 at home), 6-5 New Mexico (16-10 on the road), 6-5 Colorado State (33-3 on the road), AP #18 Arizona (9-2) by three points at "home" and their three-point win over #9 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl (another home game). They proved they could play with the big boys, but Nebraska's level of motivation for this bowl game was probably pretty low. They'd lost their perfect season in the last regular season game, getting hosed by 25 points on the road against Oklahoma. Why would they care about the Fiesta Bowl? They should have, considering Oklahoma was no lock to win their bowl game against Michigan (then again, with Bo at the helm, maybe that isn't true?). Either way, ASU's schedule was a perfect mix of the good, the bad and the ugly. And they did go undefeated, and since Alabama's SOS was no great shakes, Arizona State has the edge on the Tide.

Finally, the Sooners arrive on the McMNC scene for the first time since the 1950s. Their SOS? A very good 57%, but their only loss was a bad one: a 20-point home loss to 7-5 Kansas on November 8. But hey, they recovered and won the Big 8 and the Orange Bowl. So all is forgiven with an SOS like that, right? Mmmmm. They beat AP #15 Pittsburgh (8-4) by 36 points at home, they beat AP #16 Colorado (9-3) by one point at home, they beat #6 Texas by a touchdown, they beat 7-4 Oklahoma State on the road by 20 points, they beat 6-5 Missouri by a point on the road, they beat #9 Nebraska at home by 25 points (see above), and they beat #8 Michigan in the Orange Bowl by eight points. That is FIVE wins over ranked teams, including three in the Top 10. There is no way Arizona State can compete with that schedule, period.

In the end, a strong SOS for a big conference school should always be enough to overcome a W/L deficit to a small school. And Oklahoma proved that in 1975.

Bootlegger's Boy!

McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Arizona State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio State
5. Miami-OH

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973

Monday, May 26, 2008

1974 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Oklahoma: 11-0-0 -- NONE (probation)
2. USC: 10-1-1 -- W, Rose, 18-17
3. Michigan: 10-1-0 -- NONE
4. Ohio State: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 17-18
5. Notre Dame: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 13-11
6. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 11-13
7. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 41-20
8. Auburn: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 27-3
9. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 13-10
10. Miami-OH: 10-0-1 -- W, Citrus, 21-10

Another interesting year in McMNC Land. Surprised? You shouldn't be.

I won't crown cheaters, so the Sooners are RSFCked. So while Fairbanks skipped off to the NFL, Barry Switzer learned some lessons -- or maybe he didn't. Your call there.

This comes down to USC, Notre Dame and ... Penn State? Michigan is out, since they didn't win the Big Ten. Alabama is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to Notre Dame, and Ohio State is out since they lose the head-to-head comparison to USC. I can't consider Miami-OH, since their one blemish was a tie to 4-6-1 Purdue. Clearly, they couldn't piss with the big boys.

What a messed up season. Screw you, Chuck Fairbanks.

Penn State: Another substandard SOS for the Nittany Lions, as they check in this time with a 45% rating. And they lost to 4-7 Navy at home, albeit by one point. They also went down to AP #11 North Carolina State (9-2-1) on the road by five points, a decent blemish if you must have one. Otherwise, they beat #13 Maryland (8-4) by seven points at home, and they beat #14 Baylor (8-4) in the Cotton Bowl. To go only 2-2 against winning teams with a low SOS rating isn't enough, right?

Notre Dame: Their SOS rating was 50%, and for the second year in a row, they nipped Alabama in a bowl game to ruin the Tide's perfect season. Man, 'Bama must HATE the Irish, huh? But the Irish lost at home by 11 points to the same Purdue team that tied Miami-OH. Doh! The Irish also got taken behind the woodshed by USC in the famous Anthony Davis game, losing 55-24 in Los Angeles. Those are two bad losses, and in reality, the second one means they lose the head-to-head edge against USC.

USC: So, can they top the Nittany Lions' unimpressive schedule? Yes, with a 52% SOS rating, the Trojans claim this McMNC easily. Their only loss was a 15-point road defeat to 6-4-1 Arkansas in the first game of the year. They did tie 7-3-1 California at home (15-15), and their only two wins over ranked teams were the big win over Notre Dame and the Rose Bowl squeaker against Ohio State. They did have three other wins over winning teams (7-4 Pittsburgh with Tony Dorsett, 5-4-2 Stanford, 6-3-2 UCLA). They have the best record of the TUCs, they have the single-best win amongst the TUCs, and they have the best SOS in the bunch, too.

This year, that's not saying much, but in a open contest, the Trojans have the best resume.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Notre Dame
3. Penn State
4. Alabama
5. Michigan

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1974
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, -1974
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973

Thursday, May 22, 2008

1973 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 11: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 11-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-23
2. Ohio State: 10-0-1 -- W, Rose, 42-21
3. Oklahoma: 10-0-1 -- NONE (probation)
4. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 23-24
5. Penn State: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 16-9
6. Michigan: 10-0-1 -- NONE
7. Nebraska: 9-2-1 -- W, Cotton, 19-3
8. USC: 9-2-1 -- L, Rose, 21-42
9t. Arizona State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-7
9t. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 47-7
11. Texas Tech: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 28-19

Note: We go 11-deep this year, for obvious reasons. Also, Miami-OH picked up where Toledo left off, going 11-0 (52% SOS rating) with a Citrus Bowl win. Congrats!

While the McMNC is Notre Dame's to lose, there are many teams who can compete here: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Arizona State, Houston and Texas Tech -- taken, again, in reverse order. I will not consider Oklahoma, because they were on bowl probation thanks to Chuck Fairbanks and falsified transcripts.

Texas Tech: They didn't win the SWC (8-3 Texas did, thanks to the Longhorns' 16-point home win over the Red Raiders). So they're not eligible. But they did have a 51% SOS rating. That was easy, huh?

Houston: With a SOS rating of 50%, they're in the conversation, even if just briefly. Their one loss was a seven-point road setback at Auburn, but the Tigers were only 6-6 in 1973, including 2-5 in the SEC. So that's a bad loss. And they didn't beat an AP-ranked team all year, although they did beat two UPI teams (bowl foe Tulane and San Diego State) and a few other winning, albeit unranked, squads. Good season, but pretty weak in SOS, etc.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils fall behind Houston, since their SOS rating was only 40% -- and that's bad. They had a five-point road loss to 7-5 Utah as well. They didn't beat a ranked team all year, not even in their bowl game where they beat 6-5-1 Pittsburgh. Weak.

Michigan: As noted in 1972's analysis, this was a tough stretch for Michigan. They tied for the Big Ten title with Ohio State, and that famous vote sent the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl. But the Wolverines' SOS in 1973 was a mediocre 42%, and they didn't beat a single, ranked team all season. They didn't play in a bowl game, either, although that hardly matters when the schedule is so pathetic.

Penn State: Poor Joe. With a 47% SOS rating and perfect mark, the Nittany Lions vault into first place in this discussion so far. But can it last with such a mediocre SOS? They did play seven winning teams in 1973, but they also played two winless teams (Iowa and Army) -- which kills your OSS. They beat AP #20 Maryland (8-4) by 20 points on the road, they defeated AP #16 North Carolina State (9-3) at home by six points, and they beat AP #13 LSU (9-3) in the Orange Bowl by a touchdown. A good season, and they are the pace-setters for undefeated teams in 1973 right now.

Ohio State: The one tie, as we know, was against #6 Michigan on the road. It's mostly irrelevant in this conversation. But like the Wolverines, the Buckeyes suffer from a down year in the Big Ten (they gave up only 37 points in eight Big Ten games): their SOS rating is only 45% as a result. The only ranked team that the Buckeyes beat all year was the Trojans in the Rose Bowl. That's not good if you want to a McMNC.

Notre Dame: Notre Dame's SOS rating is 50%, which is borderline, obviously. But it edges Penn State's SOS, and that could be huge. They beat #8 USC at home by nine points, and they beat then-#1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Those two wins are better than any win Penn State had, and they compensate for the extra win against a ranked team that the Nittany Lions earned. SOS rating and key wins fuel this McMNC for the Irish.

Congrats, Domers.

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Alabama

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973

Monday, May 19, 2008

1972 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. USC: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 42-17
2. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-0
3. Texas: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-13
4. Nebraska: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 40-6
5. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 24-3
6. Michigan: 10-1-0 -- NONE
7. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 13-17
8. Tennessee: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 24-17
9. Ohio State: 9-2-0 -- L, Rose, 17-42
10. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 0-14

Side note: North Carolina finished #12 in the AP poll, with a 11-1 record, the ACC championship and a Sun Bowl win. With a 52% SOS rating, they had a pretty good season.

The Trojans are an obvious choice here, but let's also look at Oklahoma, Texas, Auburn, Michigan and North Carolina -- in reverse order.

UNC: In addition to the credentials above, they beat AP #17 North Carolina State by one point at home, and they lost by 15 points on the road to #9 Ohio State. Those were the only two ranked teams they played all year. Again, a good season, but probably not good enough to unseat the Trojans.

Michigan: They had a great season, but a three-point road loss to Ohio State prevented them from winning the Big Ten, which means they have no claim here. They only had a 48% SOS rating, anyway, and Michigan had a single win over a ranked team (26-7 win at #15 UCLA [8-3]). This was the first year of that three-year stretch where the Wolverines went 30-2-1 and never played in a bowl game. Ladies and gentlemen, THAT is pain.

Auburn: They finished 6-1 in the SEC, while Alabama finished 7-1 in conference play to "claim" the SEC title. However, since Auburn BEAT Alabama, the Tigers will get my nod as the SEC champion. Again, this is the 1970s, and the SEC still couldn't figure out even scheduling: ridiculous. Anyway, Auburn had an outstanding 61% SOS rating (so, North Carolina is officially OUT at this point) in 1972. They beat #8 Tennessee by four points at home, they lost by 28 on the road to AP #11 LSU (9-2-1), they defeated AP #20 Georgia Tech (7-4-1) by ten at home, they beat #7 Alabama (10-0 at the time) by a point at home, and they beat AP #16 Colorado (8-4) in the bowl game. The loss hurts, though, because no McMNC should lose by 28 points. But for now, they have the edge on the other teams previously discussed.

Texas: With an SOS rating of 59%, they should be in this discussion. But they can't be, because they lost 27-0 to Oklahoma. Also, their only win over a ranked team all season was in the bowl game over Alabama. So ... sorry, 'Horns.

Oklahoma: Their SOS rating was 57%, and their only loss was by six points on the road against #16 Colorado. They did beat #3 Texas (see above), they beat #4 Nebraska on the road by three points, and they beat #10 Penn State in the bowl game. Three wins over Top 10 teams is always impressive. But they still aren't ahead of Auburn, which played a tougher schedule. The Sooners' one loss is a better loss than Auburn's one loss, but the Tigers' SOS keeps them at least tied with the Sooners here (so far).

USC: Okay, the Trojans have a 53% SOS rating -- which is enough to eliminate the Sooners from the discussion since the Trojans didn't lose a game. But is it enough to hold off Auburn, which has the SOS to overcome their W/L deficit to USC? Let's look at the Trojans' schedule. They beat AP #19 Washington State (7-4) on the road by 41 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (8-3) by 17 points on the "road", they beat AP #14 Notre Dame (8-3) at home by 22 points, and they beat #9 Ohio State by 25 points in the Rose Bowl. They didn't just beat ranked teams: they destroyed them. Strangely enough, though, these four wins were the Trojans' last four games of the season. They also beat 8-3 Washington at home by 27 points, they beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by nine points, they beat 5-5-1 Michigan State at home by 45 points, and they beat 6-5 Arkansas on the road by 21 points.

In the end, the Trojans' schedule was definitely good enough to out-do Auburn's one-loss season with the really high SOS rating, simply because: 1) USC scheduled enough good OOC games; 2) Auburn's one loss was a really bad loss; and 3) the SOS advantage for Auburn wasn't in double digits.

John McKay is again in the McMNC winner's circle.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas
5. Nebraska

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

Thursday, May 15, 2008

1971 McMNC: Nebraska Cornhuskers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Nebraska: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 38-6
2. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 40-22
3. Colorado: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 29-17
4. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Orange, 6-38
5. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 30-6
6. Michigan: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 12-13
7. Georgia: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 7-3
8. Arizona State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 45-38
9. Tennessee: 10-2-0 -- W, Liberty, 14-13
10. Stanford: 9-3-0 -- W, Rose, 13-12

What a season. A lot of undefeated teams late in the season (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Michigan), but only one survived to and through the bowl season intact. By the way, Toledo again went undefeated winning the Citrus Bowl, too -- finishing 14th in the AP poll.

Stanford ruined Michigan's perfect season by a point in the Rose Bowl; Georgia was undefeated on November 13 before suffering their only loss to Auburn; Penn State was undefeated until December 4 when they lost by 20 points on the road to Tennessee. And of course, Nebraska beat undefeated Oklahoma on November 25 and undefeated Alabama on January 1 -- perhaps making the best argument ever that the regular season is a tournament.

But I digress.

Nebraska is the clear-cut choice here, obviously: they had a 57% SOS rating and a perfect record. They eliminate the Sooners, the Buffs and the Tide by virtue of head-to-head wins. Has any #1 team ever defeated #2, #3 and #4 in the same season? Incredible, but the SOS is dragged down by 1-10 Missouri. Otherwise, the Huskers played six winning teams and defeated the AP trifecta above. Plus, they dismantled the Tide in the bowl game -- ouch!

Penn State is really the only other team who could pretend for this throne. Georgia didn't win the SEC, so they're out. And the Nittany Lions? With a 47% SOS rating, they don't cut the mustard. And try this for transitive fun: Nebraska beat Alabama by 32 points, and Alabama beat Tennessee by 17 points, and Tennessee beat Penn State by 20 points.

Nebraska was 69 points better than the only other team who could have been even mildly considered this year for the McMNC. The Huskers become only the second team to win back-to-back McMNCs, joining the 1947-48 Michigan Wolverines.

Congrats, Lincoln, NE.

McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Oklahoma
3. Alabama
4. Penn State
5. Georgia

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

Monday, May 12, 2008

1970 McMNC: Nebraska Cornhuskers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Nebraska: 11-0-1 -- W, Orange, 17-12
2. Notre Dame: 10-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 24-11
3. Texas: 10-1-0 -- L, Cotton, 11-24
4. Tennessee: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 34-13
5. Ohio State: 9-1-0 -- L, Rose, 17-27
6. Arizona State: 11-0-0 -- W, Peach, 48-28
7. LSU: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 12-17
8. Stanford: 9-3-0 -- W, Rose, 27-17
9. Michigan: 9-1-0 -- NONE
10. Auburn: 9-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-28

Note: Toledo went 12-0 in 1970, winning the Citrus Bowl, 40-12, over William & Mary. Great season!

We have four teams worthy of consideration this year: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Tennessee and Arizona State. Depending on SOS ratings, etc., it's the Cornhuskers' title to lose, since Texas and Ohio State choked away their perfect seasons in the bowl spotlight.

Arizona State: With an SOS rating of 41%, they have no chance here, but why not look anyway? They beat 6-5 Kansas State at home by 22 points, they beat 6-4 UTEP on the road by 29 points, they beat 6-4 Utah at home by 23 points, they beat 7-3 New Mexico at home by 12 points, and they beat 8-4 North Carolina by 24 points in the Peach Bowl. That's five winning teams on the slate: not bad, but none of those teams were ranked, either. Duds on the schedule included 1-9 Wyoming, 1-10 Washington State and 2-9 San Jose State.

Tennessee: The Vols had a 52% SOS rating, which is very solid. Their only loss was to #10 Auburn on the road, albeit by 13 points in September. They beat #13 Georgia Tech (9-3) on the road by 13 points, they shutout 6-5-1 Alabama at home 24-0, they beat 7-4 Florida by 31 points at home, they beat 6-5 Wake Forest by 35 points at home, they beat 6-5 UCLA by 11 points at home, and they won their bowl game over #16 Air Force (9-3). So even with that schedule rating, they only beat two ranked teams all year. And there's another catch: LSU won the SEC in 1970 with a 5-0 conference record, while Tennessee went 4-1 in league play. Oh well.

Notre Dame: The Irish also have a 52% SOS rating. They beat 6-4 Northwestern by 21 points on the road, they beat #13 Georgia Tech at home by three points, they beat #7 LSU at home by three points, and they beat then-#1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl by 13 points. Their one loss? The last regular season game against #15 USC (6-4-1) in Los Angeles, where they lost by ten points. Damn that rivalry, eh? That's a tough loss, albeit to a ranked team on the road. We'll see why below ... but Notre Dame is the team to beat now.

Nebraska: They had an SOS rating of 49%, which is good enough for this discussion. Their one tie? To #15 USC on the road on September 19 (21-21). The Trojans ruined two perfect seasons in 1970, didn't they? Otherwise, they beat 6-5 Wake Forest at home by 24 points, they beat UPI #16 Colorado (6-5) on the road by 16 points, they beat 6-5 Kansas State by 38 points at home, they beat AP #20 Oklahoma (7-4-1) by seven points at home, and they beat #7 LSU in the Orange Bowl. So they played just as many ranked teams as Notre Dame did, but their bowl win wasn't as impressive and their SOS lacked by a small margin in comparison to the Irish, too.

However, since both teams played USC on the road, we have an interesting comparative there: the Huskers got the tie, the Irish got the loss. USC played a 59% SOS-rated schedule in 1970, and their 6-4-1 mark reflects that. A good team, yes, but Notre Dame had a lot to play for when they lost that last regular season game. It's impressive they recovered to beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl, but they should have beaten USC if they wanted this McMNC.

In the end, Nebraska's SOS is good enough, since the Irish SOS wasn't overwhelmingly better.

McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Notre Dame
3. Arizona State
4. Texas
5. Ohio State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

Thursday, May 8, 2008

1969 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Texas: 11-0-0 -- W, Cotton, 21-17
2. Penn State: 11-0-0 -- W, Orange, 10-3
3. USC: 10-0-1 -- W, Rose, 10-3
4. Ohio State: 8-1-0 -- NONE
5. Notre Dame: 8-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 17-21
6. Missouri: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 3-10
7. Arkansas: 9-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 22-27
8. Mississippi: 8-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-22
9. Michigan: 8-3-0 -- L, Rose, 3-10
10. LSU: 9-1-0 -- NONE

Note: This was Notre Dame's first foray into bowl games, and even though they lost to Texas, they moved up from #9 in the polls to a #5 finish. Quite interesting. Also, it's amazing how many undefeated teams there were late in this season: Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Arkansas ... crazy fun year for college football. And LSU's only loss? A three-point road loss to #8 Mississippi. And they got no bowl game. Ouch. Maybe it was that 39% SOS rating ...

This is really about three teams: Texas, Penn State and USC. No one else can match then for record/bowl win combinations.

Texas: The Longhorns had a pretty low SOS rating this year (42%). They beat unranked 6-4 Oklahoma at home by ten points, they beat #7 Arkansas on the road by a point, and they beat then-#9 Notre Dame in their bowl game by four points. So, they did beat two ranked teams, but only by a total of five points. And they only played THREE winning teams all year. The stinkers on their schedule? 1-9 Navy and 0-10 Baylor. Not a good year to have a sucky schedule, Texas. They also only played four road games all year.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a 53% SOS rating, which is significantly better than the Texas mark above. They beat AP #16 Colorado (8-3) by 24 points at home, they beat AP #17 West Virginia (10-1) in a 20-0 home shutout, they beat 5-4-1 Ohio University at home by 39 points, they beat 5-4 Boston College at home by 22 points, and they beat #6 Missouri in the Orange Bowl by seven points. They did beat three ranked teams, and they beat five winning teams overall. The schedule doesn't look as good as the number might indicate, but ...

USC: The Trojans trump both Texas and Penn State with a 55% SOS rating. Their tie was a 14-14 road game at #5 Notre Dame, hardly a bad tie. They beat #11 Nebraska (9-2) by ten points on the road, they beat 6-4 Oregon State on the road by 24 points, they beat #19 Stanford (7-2-1) at home by two points, they beat #13 UCLA (8-1-1) by two points in the Coliseum, and they won the Rose Bowl over #9 Michigan by a touchdown. They played five ranked teams, as many as Texas and Penn State combined.

The problem here is multifaceted: Penn State gets the edge over Texas due to SOS, and USC gets the edge over Penn State due to SOS, but Texas gets the edge over USC because of the comparative Notre Dame scores. It's a true circle of doubt!

But Texas played Notre Dame in a virtual home game, and USC played Notre Dame in South Bend. That basically eliminates the edge Texas has over USC, especially since the Trojans didn't lose. Throw in USC's significant edge in SOS over Texas, and John McKay's boys steal one from Penn State.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Penn State
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. LSU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

Monday, May 5, 2008

1968 McMNC: Ohio State Buckeyes

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Ohio State: 10-0-0 -- W, Rose, 27-16
2. Penn State: 11-0-0 -- W, Orange, 15-14
3. Texas: 9-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 36-13
4. USC: 9-1-1 -- L, Rose, 16-27
5. Notre Dame: 7-2-1 -- NONE
6. Arkansas: 10-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 16-2
7. Kansas: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 14-15
8. Georgia: 8-1-2 -- L, Sugar, 2-16
9. Missouri: 8-3-0 -- W, Gator, 35-10
10. Purdue: 8-2-0 -- NONE

Note: The AP poll went back to ranking 20 teams in 1968, and they also went to the permanent post-bowl poll -- bringing us almost in-line with the modern poll. Almost. Interesting bowl season, with only Notre Dame and the Big Ten being losers.

[By the way, Michigan finished 8-2 and ranked #12. So why was 1969's win over Woody considered such a big upset? It's not like the Wolverines were bad in 1968 ...]

There's two obvious contenders here, and there are two others to look at as well, just because ... if USC, Georgia and Kansas hadn't lost their bowl games, I would have considered them, too.

Let's look at the seeming pretenders first.

Texas: The Longhorns' 52% SOS rating is very solid in this discussion, as will be seen. They started the season 0-1-1, and then they ran the table (which continued into 1969 and most of 1970, too). They tied #18 Houston (6-2-2) at home to open the season, and then they lost to 5-3-2 Texas Tech on the road by nine points. They recovered to beat #11 Oklahoma (7-4) by six points at home, they beat #6 Arkansas at home by ten points (thus eliminating the Razorbacks from this discussion -- see below), they pounded #14 SMU (8-3) at home by 31 points, and they beat #13 Tennessee (8-2-1) in the Cotton Bowl by 23 points. They had some stumbles early to decent teams, and they recovered strongly.

Arkansas: They had a 50% SOS rating, which is better than either of the top two teams. But they did lose to Texas, so they're out.

So now to the big boys!

Penn State: The Nittany Lions had an SOS rating below Texas' at 47%, which is not super. They beat unranked 7-3 West Virginia on the road by 11 points, they beat unranked 6-3 Boston College on the road in a 29-0 rout, they beat unranked 7-3 Army at home by four points, they beat unranked 6-4 Syracuse by 18 points at home, and they beat #7 Kansas by a point in the Orange Bowl. They only beat one ranked team all year, and that was by a point. Strange SOS, to be sure.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes only check in with a 49% SOS rating, but it's better than Penn State's schedule. They also played only three road games all season (four, including the Rose Bowl). Pretty lame. But they did beat #14 SMU by 21 points at home, they shutout #10 Purdue 13-0 at home, and they beat #12 Michigan by 36 points at home (in the famous "I couldn't go for three" game). This was capped by an 11-point win over #4 USC in the Rose Bowl.

The Longhorns' resume isn't good enough to knock off an undefeated team at the top, since they have two blemishes to overcome. So they're out. And it's funny to note how "close" the SOS ratings are for Penn State and Ohio State, despite the fact the Buckeyes clearly played a significantly more impressive schedule.

Sorry, Joe -- Woody takes you down here.

McMNC Revisions
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Texas
4. Arkansas
5. USC

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Texas: =1963
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
USC: -1962, =1967
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

Thursday, May 1, 2008

1967 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. USC: 10-1-0 -- W, Rose, 14-3
2. Tennessee: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 24-26
3. Oklahoma: 10-1-0 -- W, Orange, 26-24
4. Indiana: 9-2-0 -- L, Rose, 3-14
5. Notre Dame: 8-2-0 -- NONE
6. Wyoming: 10-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 13-20
7. Oregon State: 7-2-1 -- NONE
8. Alabama: 8-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 16-20
9. Purdue: 8-2-0 -- NONE
10. Penn State: 8-2-1 -- T, Gator, 17-17

Note: The AP only ranked ten teams in 1967. And this was the FINAL year that the AP finalized itself before the bowl games. The top four teams faced off in another situation calling for an "Plus-One" scenario. In addition, undefeated Wyoming got a major bowl game shot, although they lost to 7-3-1 LSU.

This year comes down to USC or Oklahoma. They earned their stripes with bowl wins over the two other top teams heading into bowl season, and no one else deserves consideration, really.

USC: They had a 54% SOS rating, and they won the AAWU with a 6-1 mark. Their only loss was a three-point road defeat at #7 Oregon State. They also beat 6-4 Texas at home by four points, they pounded #5 Notre Dame on the road by 17 points, they beat UPI #10 UCLA (7-2-1) by one point in the Coliseum, and they beat #4 Indiana in the Rose Bowl. They also beat three 5-5 teams (Washington, Stanford and Cal) by a combined 66 points. Overall, the schedule seems harder than the 54% rating would suggest.

Oklahoma: The Sooners' SOS rating was only 46%, so already they have an uphill fight against USC. Their one loss was a two-point road defeat to Texas (a team USC beat in Los Angeles). They did shutout unranked Missouri (7-3) on the road by seven points; they also shutout UPI #13 Colorado (9-2) at home by 23 points. They beat unranked Nebraska (6-4) on the road by seven points, and they nicked #2 Tennessee in the bowl game. The schedule also looks better than the rating, but 0-9 Maryland, 1-9 Kansas State and 2-8 Iowa State truly dragged down the SOS.

An interesting side note to this comparison: Both teams opened their season against Washington State at home, USC on September 15 and Oklahoma on September 23. USC won 49-0, and Oklahoma won 21-0.

USC's bowl win was probably more impressive, as it was by double digits over the #4 team, while Oklahoma only won their bowl game by two points over the #2 team. Small advantage to USC, but when combined with the SOS factor and the "better loss" factor (not to mention the Sooners' one loss came to a team USC beat), the Trojans get to claim the McMNC.

So John McKay gets his first McMNC.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Oklahoma
3. Tennessee
4. Indiana
5. Wyoming

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Texas: =1963
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
USC: -1962, =1967
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966