Thursday, May 22, 2008

1973 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 11: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 11-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-23
2. Ohio State: 10-0-1 -- W, Rose, 42-21
3. Oklahoma: 10-0-1 -- NONE (probation)
4. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 23-24
5. Penn State: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 16-9
6. Michigan: 10-0-1 -- NONE
7. Nebraska: 9-2-1 -- W, Cotton, 19-3
8. USC: 9-2-1 -- L, Rose, 21-42
9t. Arizona State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 28-7
9t. Houston: 11-1-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 47-7
11. Texas Tech: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 28-19

Note: We go 11-deep this year, for obvious reasons. Also, Miami-OH picked up where Toledo left off, going 11-0 (52% SOS rating) with a Citrus Bowl win. Congrats!

While the McMNC is Notre Dame's to lose, there are many teams who can compete here: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Arizona State, Houston and Texas Tech -- taken, again, in reverse order. I will not consider Oklahoma, because they were on bowl probation thanks to Chuck Fairbanks and falsified transcripts.

Texas Tech: They didn't win the SWC (8-3 Texas did, thanks to the Longhorns' 16-point home win over the Red Raiders). So they're not eligible. But they did have a 51% SOS rating. That was easy, huh?

Houston: With a SOS rating of 50%, they're in the conversation, even if just briefly. Their one loss was a seven-point road setback at Auburn, but the Tigers were only 6-6 in 1973, including 2-5 in the SEC. So that's a bad loss. And they didn't beat an AP-ranked team all year, although they did beat two UPI teams (bowl foe Tulane and San Diego State) and a few other winning, albeit unranked, squads. Good season, but pretty weak in SOS, etc.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils fall behind Houston, since their SOS rating was only 40% -- and that's bad. They had a five-point road loss to 7-5 Utah as well. They didn't beat a ranked team all year, not even in their bowl game where they beat 6-5-1 Pittsburgh. Weak.

Michigan: As noted in 1972's analysis, this was a tough stretch for Michigan. They tied for the Big Ten title with Ohio State, and that famous vote sent the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl. But the Wolverines' SOS in 1973 was a mediocre 42%, and they didn't beat a single, ranked team all season. They didn't play in a bowl game, either, although that hardly matters when the schedule is so pathetic.

Penn State: Poor Joe. With a 47% SOS rating and perfect mark, the Nittany Lions vault into first place in this discussion so far. But can it last with such a mediocre SOS? They did play seven winning teams in 1973, but they also played two winless teams (Iowa and Army) -- which kills your OSS. They beat AP #20 Maryland (8-4) by 20 points on the road, they defeated AP #16 North Carolina State (9-3) at home by six points, and they beat AP #13 LSU (9-3) in the Orange Bowl by a touchdown. A good season, and they are the pace-setters for undefeated teams in 1973 right now.

Ohio State: The one tie, as we know, was against #6 Michigan on the road. It's mostly irrelevant in this conversation. But like the Wolverines, the Buckeyes suffer from a down year in the Big Ten (they gave up only 37 points in eight Big Ten games): their SOS rating is only 45% as a result. The only ranked team that the Buckeyes beat all year was the Trojans in the Rose Bowl. That's not good if you want to a McMNC.

Notre Dame: Notre Dame's SOS rating is 50%, which is borderline, obviously. But it edges Penn State's SOS, and that could be huge. They beat #8 USC at home by nine points, and they beat then-#1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Those two wins are better than any win Penn State had, and they compensate for the extra win against a ranked team that the Nittany Lions earned. SOS rating and key wins fuel this McMNC for the Irish.

Congrats, Domers.

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Alabama

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973

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