Monday, May 19, 2008

1972 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. USC: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 42-17
2. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-0
3. Texas: 11-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-13
4. Nebraska: 9-2-1 -- W, Orange, 40-6
5. Auburn: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 24-3
6. Michigan: 10-1-0 -- NONE
7. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 13-17
8. Tennessee: 10-2-0 -- W, Bluebonnet, 24-17
9. Ohio State: 9-2-0 -- L, Rose, 17-42
10. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 0-14

Side note: North Carolina finished #12 in the AP poll, with a 11-1 record, the ACC championship and a Sun Bowl win. With a 52% SOS rating, they had a pretty good season.

The Trojans are an obvious choice here, but let's also look at Oklahoma, Texas, Auburn, Michigan and North Carolina -- in reverse order.

UNC: In addition to the credentials above, they beat AP #17 North Carolina State by one point at home, and they lost by 15 points on the road to #9 Ohio State. Those were the only two ranked teams they played all year. Again, a good season, but probably not good enough to unseat the Trojans.

Michigan: They had a great season, but a three-point road loss to Ohio State prevented them from winning the Big Ten, which means they have no claim here. They only had a 48% SOS rating, anyway, and Michigan had a single win over a ranked team (26-7 win at #15 UCLA [8-3]). This was the first year of that three-year stretch where the Wolverines went 30-2-1 and never played in a bowl game. Ladies and gentlemen, THAT is pain.

Auburn: They finished 6-1 in the SEC, while Alabama finished 7-1 in conference play to "claim" the SEC title. However, since Auburn BEAT Alabama, the Tigers will get my nod as the SEC champion. Again, this is the 1970s, and the SEC still couldn't figure out even scheduling: ridiculous. Anyway, Auburn had an outstanding 61% SOS rating (so, North Carolina is officially OUT at this point) in 1972. They beat #8 Tennessee by four points at home, they lost by 28 on the road to AP #11 LSU (9-2-1), they defeated AP #20 Georgia Tech (7-4-1) by ten at home, they beat #7 Alabama (10-0 at the time) by a point at home, and they beat AP #16 Colorado (8-4) in the bowl game. The loss hurts, though, because no McMNC should lose by 28 points. But for now, they have the edge on the other teams previously discussed.

Texas: With an SOS rating of 59%, they should be in this discussion. But they can't be, because they lost 27-0 to Oklahoma. Also, their only win over a ranked team all season was in the bowl game over Alabama. So ... sorry, 'Horns.

Oklahoma: Their SOS rating was 57%, and their only loss was by six points on the road against #16 Colorado. They did beat #3 Texas (see above), they beat #4 Nebraska on the road by three points, and they beat #10 Penn State in the bowl game. Three wins over Top 10 teams is always impressive. But they still aren't ahead of Auburn, which played a tougher schedule. The Sooners' one loss is a better loss than Auburn's one loss, but the Tigers' SOS keeps them at least tied with the Sooners here (so far).

USC: Okay, the Trojans have a 53% SOS rating -- which is enough to eliminate the Sooners from the discussion since the Trojans didn't lose a game. But is it enough to hold off Auburn, which has the SOS to overcome their W/L deficit to USC? Let's look at the Trojans' schedule. They beat AP #19 Washington State (7-4) on the road by 41 points, they beat AP #15 UCLA (8-3) by 17 points on the "road", they beat AP #14 Notre Dame (8-3) at home by 22 points, and they beat #9 Ohio State by 25 points in the Rose Bowl. They didn't just beat ranked teams: they destroyed them. Strangely enough, though, these four wins were the Trojans' last four games of the season. They also beat 8-3 Washington at home by 27 points, they beat 6-5 Stanford on the road by nine points, they beat 5-5-1 Michigan State at home by 45 points, and they beat 6-5 Arkansas on the road by 21 points.

In the end, the Trojans' schedule was definitely good enough to out-do Auburn's one-loss season with the really high SOS rating, simply because: 1) USC scheduled enough good OOC games; 2) Auburn's one loss was a really bad loss; and 3) the SOS advantage for Auburn wasn't in double digits.

John McKay is again in the McMNC winner's circle.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas
5. Nebraska

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

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