Thursday, May 8, 2008

1969 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Texas: 11-0-0 -- W, Cotton, 21-17
2. Penn State: 11-0-0 -- W, Orange, 10-3
3. USC: 10-0-1 -- W, Rose, 10-3
4. Ohio State: 8-1-0 -- NONE
5. Notre Dame: 8-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 17-21
6. Missouri: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 3-10
7. Arkansas: 9-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 22-27
8. Mississippi: 8-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 27-22
9. Michigan: 8-3-0 -- L, Rose, 3-10
10. LSU: 9-1-0 -- NONE

Note: This was Notre Dame's first foray into bowl games, and even though they lost to Texas, they moved up from #9 in the polls to a #5 finish. Quite interesting. Also, it's amazing how many undefeated teams there were late in this season: Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Arkansas ... crazy fun year for college football. And LSU's only loss? A three-point road loss to #8 Mississippi. And they got no bowl game. Ouch. Maybe it was that 39% SOS rating ...

This is really about three teams: Texas, Penn State and USC. No one else can match then for record/bowl win combinations.

Texas: The Longhorns had a pretty low SOS rating this year (42%). They beat unranked 6-4 Oklahoma at home by ten points, they beat #7 Arkansas on the road by a point, and they beat then-#9 Notre Dame in their bowl game by four points. So, they did beat two ranked teams, but only by a total of five points. And they only played THREE winning teams all year. The stinkers on their schedule? 1-9 Navy and 0-10 Baylor. Not a good year to have a sucky schedule, Texas. They also only played four road games all year.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a 53% SOS rating, which is significantly better than the Texas mark above. They beat AP #16 Colorado (8-3) by 24 points at home, they beat AP #17 West Virginia (10-1) in a 20-0 home shutout, they beat 5-4-1 Ohio University at home by 39 points, they beat 5-4 Boston College at home by 22 points, and they beat #6 Missouri in the Orange Bowl by seven points. They did beat three ranked teams, and they beat five winning teams overall. The schedule doesn't look as good as the number might indicate, but ...

USC: The Trojans trump both Texas and Penn State with a 55% SOS rating. Their tie was a 14-14 road game at #5 Notre Dame, hardly a bad tie. They beat #11 Nebraska (9-2) by ten points on the road, they beat 6-4 Oregon State on the road by 24 points, they beat #19 Stanford (7-2-1) at home by two points, they beat #13 UCLA (8-1-1) by two points in the Coliseum, and they won the Rose Bowl over #9 Michigan by a touchdown. They played five ranked teams, as many as Texas and Penn State combined.

The problem here is multifaceted: Penn State gets the edge over Texas due to SOS, and USC gets the edge over Penn State due to SOS, but Texas gets the edge over USC because of the comparative Notre Dame scores. It's a true circle of doubt!

But Texas played Notre Dame in a virtual home game, and USC played Notre Dame in South Bend. That basically eliminates the edge Texas has over USC, especially since the Trojans didn't lose. Throw in USC's significant edge in SOS over Texas, and John McKay's boys steal one from Penn State.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Penn State
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. LSU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

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