Monday, February 25, 2008

1948 McMNC: Michigan Wolverines

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Michigan: 9-0-0 -- None
2. Notre Dame: 9-0-1 -- None
3. North Carolina: 9-1-1 -- L, Sugar, 6-14
4. California: 10-1-0 -- L, Rose, 14-20
5. Oklahoma: 10-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-6
6. Army: 8-0-1 -- None
7. Northwestern: 8-2-0 -- W, Rose, 20-14
8. Georgia: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 28-41
9. Oregon: 9-2-0 -- L, Cotton, 13-21
10. SMU: 9-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 21-13
11. Clemson: 11-0-0 -- W, Gator, 24-23
12. Vanderbilt: 8-2-1 -- None
13. Tulane: 9-1-0 -- None
14. Michigan State: 6-2-2 -- None
15. Mississippi: 8-1-0 -- None

There are only three teams here truly under consideration: #1 Michigan, #2 Notre Dame and #11 Clemson. Everyone else gets trumped one way or another. And all of this would have been moot if Cal had just won the Rose Bowl. Id0ts.

Let's take them in reverse order:

Clemson had a fine season, winning the Southern Conference and a bowl game. But it was lower-tier bowl game for the era, and they beat an unranked Missouri team by only a point. While Mizzou had a fine season at 8-3, they weren't ranked in the Top 20 even when they were 8-2 before the bowl game. Furthermore, Clemson's SOS was poor in 1948. Opponents won only 41% of their games, and the only winning teams Clemson played were Boston College (5-2-2), #20 Wake Forest (6-4), and Missouri. Overall, a good season with six road wins, but objectively speaking, it wasn't a great season.

Let's see how it stacks up against the other two schools under consideration.

Notre Dame played just as weak a schedule as Clemson did, actually. Opponents won only 43% of their games. Notre Dame played four winning teams (including a win over #7 Northwestern), going 3-0-1 against them. But they also played 0-8-1 Navy, 2-7-1 Washington and 2-8 Nebraska. The Irish did play six road games, though, which is impressive, although their last road game -- the trip to Southern California -- cost them with the one tie. Of course, they didn't see any bowl action.

Michigan played the best schedule of the three teams, winning the Western Conference (Big Nine still) and beating opponents who won 54% of their games. They beat #14 Michigan State on the road (an OOC game then), they beat #9 Oregon at home, #7 Northwestern at home, and #16 Minnesota on the road. While their "road" trips were all weak, they played four of them to have a semi-balanced schedule. They also had five shutouts on the season, including the wins over ranked Oregon and Northwestern.

Comparative scores for Notre Dame and Michigan? Notre Dame beat Purdue by a point at home, while Michigan beat Purdue by 40 points on the road. Notre Dame beat Sparty by 19 at home, while Michigan beat Sparty by six on the road -- this was the closest any team came to beating the Wolverines, by the way. Notre Dame beat Indiana by 36 on the "road", while Michigan beat Indiana by 54 points at home. Notre Dame beat Northwestern by five points at home, while Michigan shut them out 28-0 at home.

No matter which way you dice it, the Wolverines were the best team in 1948, hands down -- bowl or no bowl. They also become the first back-to-back McMNCs.

McMNC Revisions
1. Michigan
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. SMU

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
TCU: -1938
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947

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