Thursday, June 19, 2008

1981 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Clemson: 12-0-0 -- W, Orange, 22-15
2. Texas: 10-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 14-12
3. Penn State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 26-10
4. Pittsburgh: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-20
5. SMU: 10-1-0 -- NONE (probation)
6. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-24
7. Alabama: 9-2-1 -- L, Cotton, 12-14
8. Miami: 9-2-0 -- NONE (probation)
9. North Carolina: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 31-27
10. Washington: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 28-0

What a boring season. Clemson is the clear front-runner, almost by default. Pittsburgh has a shot, while Texas and Penn State have outside looks, too. But SMU? No way, cheaters. And oh look! The Hurricanes on probation, too ... surprise (not!).

So let's go with Penn State first, just because we can. Yes, they have two losses, but I've already crossed that barrier before in a special circumstance. Will this be another one? The Nittany Lions have an SOS rating of 63%, which is outstanding, of course. But with two losses?! They lost to #8 Miami on the road by three points. When you lose to a team on probation, though, does that count? (See 1977 Penn State, for example). I am not so sure it should count. The other loss was a 15-point home setback to #7 Alabama. Now, two losses to Top 8 teams isn't a bad thing, and it really should be only one loss since the Hurricanes were cheatenous. The SOS was built with wins over unranked 6-5 Cincinnati at home (52-0), AP #11 Nebraska (9-3) on the road (30-24), AP #17 West Virginia (9-3) at home (30-7), #4 Pittsburgh on the road (48-14)and AP #14 USC (9-3) in the Fiesta Bowl (26-10). That's a packed schedule.

The PSU win over Pittsburgh also pretty much eliminates the Panthers. You cannot lose a home game by 34 points and expect to win the McMNC, no matter what. Sorry, Pitt. Your 11-1 record with a 57% SOS is great, but you can't shake that ugly home loss no matter what you do.

The Longhorns posted a 54% SOS rating, with a loss to UPI #16 Arkansas (8-4) by 31 points on the road. No. You just can't lose a game by 31 points, even on the road, and expect to compete for the McMNC. Besides, the Longhorns also had a tie to unranked 7-4-1 Houston on the road (14-14), and those two blemishes are significantly worse than Penn State's two losses (see above). So Texas is out.

Can Clemson hold on? It would be a tough justification to give two-loss Penn State the McMNC over an undefeated team, but the Tigers' SOS rating was only 49% in 1981. They beat unranked 6-5 Tulane on the road by eight points, they beat #6 Georgia at home by ten points, they beat unranked 6-5 Duke on the road by 28 points, they beat #9 North Carolina on the road by two points, and they beat #11 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl by seven points. You can't argue with the two wins over Top 10 teams, and their SOS was dragged down by 0-4 Wofford (yes, that was their record) and 1-10 Virginia. The overall SOS is weak, but the individual wins are good.

So it's Penn State versus Clemson. In a comparative game, they both played #11 Nebraska: Penn State won in Lincoln by six, Clemson won in Miami by seven. A slight edge goes to Penn State for the road effort. Both teams also played North Carolina State (4-7): Clemson beat the 'Pack at home by ten points, and Penn State beat them on the road by seven points. That's a wash. Penn State played powerhouses Nebraska (road), Alabama, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh (road) and USC (bowl). Clemson played powerhouses Georgia and Nebraska (bowl). Overall, we know Penn State had the significantly better schedule, but they also had two losses -- one to a cheatenous team on probation.

There's a sidebar here that needs to be discussed as well. Clemson was put on probation during the 1982 season for several seasons of infractions, from 1977 through 1981. This means they basically cheated to win this AP title in 1981, and I cannot tolerate verified cheaters winning anything. Now I realize this means I may have to go back and revise some previous seasons, too, but there is no way Clemson wins my McMNC for 1981 when they were nailed for over 70 recruiting violations that led directly to the players on this 1981 team.

Penn State runs a clean program, and they are not going to be denied a McMNC in 1981 at the expense of TWO cheatenous programs (Miami and Clemson). Add in the significant edge in SOS for the Nittany Lions, and you have a McMNC you can be proud of this year.

McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Clemson
3. Pittsburgh
4. Texas
5. North Carolina

RUNNING SCORECARD:
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Penn State: +1977, +1981
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Clemson: -1981
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

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