Monday, June 9, 2008

1978 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Alabama: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 14-7
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 17-10
3. Oklahoma: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 31-24
4. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-14
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 10-17
6. Clemson: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 17-15
7. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-34
8. Nebraska: 9-3-0 -- L, Orange, 24-31
9. Texas: 9-3-0 -- W, Sun, 42-0
10. Houston: 9-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 34-35

This is a funny year, where Alabama was named the AP champion despite an obvious flaw the voters chose to ignore (see below). Logic is the middle name of the McMNC, so strap yourselves in.

TUCs this year are 'Bama, USC, Oklahoma and Clemson. Penn State and Michigan both blew their bowl games, although if Penn State had won, Michigan would have been eliminated, anyway, in all likelihood. Poor Bo.

Clemson is probably better remembered for ending Woody Hayes' career than they are for going 11-1 in 1978. But they had a great season. The one loss was a 12-point road defeat to AP #16 Georgia (9-2-1), nominally respectable since it came in September. Their overall SOS rating was 49%, and it included wins over AP #18 North Carolina State (9-3), AP #20 Maryland (9-3) and 7-4-1 Ohio State. Those were the only four teams with winning records on Clemson's 1978 schedule, though.

Oklahoma's only loss was on the road to #8 Nebraska by three points, and the Sooners avenged that loss in the Orange Bowl. But technically, Nebraska won the Big 8 in 1978, based on the regular-season, head-to-head win over the Sooners. So Oklahoma is eliminated, because they didn't win their conference. Their SOS rating? A mid-level 50%, including wins over AP #17 Stanford (8-4), AP #15 Missouri (8-4), AP #9 Texas, unranked 8-4 Iowa State, unranked 6-5 Colorado, and the split against the Cornhuskers. A pretty good slate, save for 2-9 West Virginia, 2-9 Rice, 1-10 Kansas, and 3-8 Oklahoma State that sink the SOS overall. Oh well ...

USC blows Oklahoma out of the water with a 64% SOS rating in 1978. Their one loss was to UPI #19 Arizona State (9-3), on the road, in its first Pac-8/10 season: an acceptable loss, at worst. The Trojans beat unranked 7-4 Texas Tech by eight points at home, #1 Alabama on the road by ten points, AP #12 Michigan State (8-3) at home by 21 points, unranked 6-5 California by 25 points at home, AP #17 Stanford by six points on the road, unranked 7-4 Washington by 18 points at home, AP #14 UCLA (8-3-1) by seven points on the "road", #7 Notre Dame by two points at home, unranked 6-5 Hawaii on the road by 16 points, and #5 Michigan in the Rose Bowl by a touchdown. Have you lost count of how many winning teams USC beat in 1978? TEN. Oregon and Oregon State were 5-16-1 in 1978, and they were the only teams with losing records on the Trojans' schedule. This, my RSFCkers, is a SCHEDULE.

Alabama? They played a great schedule, too, to a 60% SOS rating. Their only loss? To #2 USC at home by ten points (see above). The Tide beat #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, they beat AP #15 Missouri (8-4) by 18 points on the road, they beat 7-4 Washington on the road by three points, they beat unranked 6-5 Mississippi State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 8-4 Louisiana State at home by 21 points, they beat unranked 6-4-1 Auburn on the road by 18 points, and they beat #4 Penn State (then unbeaten and #1) in the Sugar Bowl by seven points. The Tide beat seven winning teams in 1978, which is pretty good in any other season. There's also the little tricky bit about the head-to-head loss to USC at HOME. And you KNOW what that means ...

It mystifies me the AP voters messed this one up so badly. At least the UPI poll got it right, putting USC at #1 at the end of the season.

The Trojans were robbed in 1978, and I aim to put it right.

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Penn State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978
Penn State: +1977
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976
Nebraska: =1970, =1971
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977

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