AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Ohio State (14-1): Won CFP Bowl, 42-20
2. Oregon (13-2): Lost CFP Bowl, 42-20
3. TCU (12-1): Won Peach Bowl, 42-3
4. Alabama (12-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 35-42
5t. Florida State (13-1): Lost Rose Bowl, 20-59
5t. Michigan State (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 42-41
7. Baylor (11-2): Lost Cotton Bowl, 41-42
8. Georgia Tech (11-3): Won Orange Bowl, 49-34
9. Georgia (10-3): Won Belk Bowl, 37-14
10. UCLA (10-3): Won Alamo Bowl, 40-35
The first year of the four-team playoff is in the books, and because the committee got the wrong four teams in, well ... this is why I post. We really need an eight-team playoff, at least, but it will have to wait for another ten years before I can stop this blog. Great.
The dilemma for the College Football Playoff committee was Florida State: The Seminoles were undefeated and the defending champs. They had to be in the playoff, even if they were an inferior team in their own conference to Georgia Tech. FSU beat the Yellow Jackets, 37-35, in the ACC title game, so that was that. But clearly, the Seminoles did not belong in the Final Four. Either TCU or Baylor did, by any independent analysis. But again, FSU left the committee in a bind, since it would have been impossible to leave the undefeated, defending champs out in the first year of the playoff format. The logic is sound, even if it did mess up the whole thing.
Even if TCU had made it into the FInal Four, the right two teams did end up playing for the title. Still, we have to look at TCU and Ohio State here in terms of their schedules, their margins of victory, and everything else we can.
First, SOS: The Buckeyes played a significantly better schedule, according to Sports-Reference.com (our new standard of measurement now). In fact, only Baylor played a worse schedule among teams that finished in the Top 10. So the edge there going to Ohio State.
Big wins: TCU beat five teams that were ranked at the time of the games by an average of 19.6 points per contest. That's impressive, although the Horned Frogs; a 39-point win in the Peach Bowl skews the tabulation a little bit. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes beat four ranked teams by an average of 25 points per victory; a 59-0 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game is the outlier there. The edge again goes to Ohio State.
The losses? TCU lost by three points on the road to Baylor in a game it should have won. Ohio State lost by 14 points at home to Virginia Tech, a team that finished the year just 7-6 after a minor-bowl victory. The Horned Frogs definitely have the edge there, big time, as that Buckeyes loss was just inexcusable. But the old adage rings true: Better to lose early than late. TCU's loss came in October, and it cost the Horned Frogs an outright Big XII championship—which still might not have been enough to overcome FSU's instinctual edges.
There's little doubt TCU might have given Ohio State a better fight in the CFP title game than Oregon did, but that's not saying much. In comparisons, the Buckeyes still get the edge over TCU by enough to make this a very comfortable decision. But it's a game we would have liked to see.
Congratulations, Ohio State.
McMNC Revision:
1. Ohio State
2. TCU
3. Oregon
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012, =2014
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
2013 McMNC: Florida State Seminoles
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Florida State (14-0): Won BCS Bowl, 34-31
2. Auburn (12-2): Lost BCS Bowl, 31-34
3. Michigan State (13-1): Won Rose Bowl, 24-20
4. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 34-24
5. Missouri (12-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-31
6. Oklahoma (11-2): Won Sugar Bowl, 45-31
7. Alabama (11-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 31-45
8. Clemson (11-2): Won Orange Bowl, 40-35
9. Oregon (11-2): Won Alamo Bowl, 30-7
10. UCF (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 52-42
This was the final year of the BCS, and good riddance. Never did the sport need a playoff as much as this season, although maybe that is just hyperbole. Either way, once again, the SEC placed a team that had no business being in the title game into the title game, and that team almost won it, sadly. Auburn reached the title game thanks to these two miracles (a 4th-and-18 prayer and the Kick Six), and in the end, both teams in the Rose Bowl were better candidates for the title game, not to mention several other also-ran squads that didn't win a conference title. This simple rating system shows Auburn to be the sixth-best team in the country, but since the SEC buys its way into every BCS title game ... yeah.
Either way, losing the title game eliminates them from this discussion. Really, this year's analysis comes down to FSU, MSU, Oklahoma, and UCF. We have to look at SOS here in order to sort out whether or not any team can unseat the Seminoles.
Florida State's SOS was 86-80 was .516, not including its game against Bethune-Cookman (non-major opponent). That's pretty solid, and it eliminates two-loss Oklahoma from the conversation. The Sooners did not have an SOS over .700, that's for sure (.540), although their schedule was better the the Seminoles' schedule.
But what about MSU and UCF? Michigan State's SOS was .491 (not including its game against non-major Youngstown State), and UCF's SOS was .472—meaning Florida State was worthy of the championship belt. For what it's worth, the Spartans were the first Big Ten team ever to win all its conference games by double digits, but that wasn't enough to get the system to admit them to the title game.
Congratulations, Florida State.
McMNC Revision:
1. Florida State
2. Michigan State
3. UCF
4. Oklahoma
5. Auburn
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012
1. Florida State (14-0): Won BCS Bowl, 34-31
2. Auburn (12-2): Lost BCS Bowl, 31-34
3. Michigan State (13-1): Won Rose Bowl, 24-20
4. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 34-24
5. Missouri (12-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-31
6. Oklahoma (11-2): Won Sugar Bowl, 45-31
7. Alabama (11-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 31-45
8. Clemson (11-2): Won Orange Bowl, 40-35
9. Oregon (11-2): Won Alamo Bowl, 30-7
10. UCF (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 52-42
This was the final year of the BCS, and good riddance. Never did the sport need a playoff as much as this season, although maybe that is just hyperbole. Either way, once again, the SEC placed a team that had no business being in the title game into the title game, and that team almost won it, sadly. Auburn reached the title game thanks to these two miracles (a 4th-and-18 prayer and the Kick Six), and in the end, both teams in the Rose Bowl were better candidates for the title game, not to mention several other also-ran squads that didn't win a conference title. This simple rating system shows Auburn to be the sixth-best team in the country, but since the SEC buys its way into every BCS title game ... yeah.
Either way, losing the title game eliminates them from this discussion. Really, this year's analysis comes down to FSU, MSU, Oklahoma, and UCF. We have to look at SOS here in order to sort out whether or not any team can unseat the Seminoles.
Florida State's SOS was 86-80 was .516, not including its game against Bethune-Cookman (non-major opponent). That's pretty solid, and it eliminates two-loss Oklahoma from the conversation. The Sooners did not have an SOS over .700, that's for sure (.540), although their schedule was better the the Seminoles' schedule.
But what about MSU and UCF? Michigan State's SOS was .491 (not including its game against non-major Youngstown State), and UCF's SOS was .472—meaning Florida State was worthy of the championship belt. For what it's worth, the Spartans were the first Big Ten team ever to win all its conference games by double digits, but that wasn't enough to get the system to admit them to the title game.
Congratulations, Florida State.
McMNC Revision:
1. Florida State
2. Michigan State
3. UCF
4. Oklahoma
5. Auburn
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999, =2013
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
2012 McMNC: The Ohio State University Buckeyes
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama (11-1): Won BCS Bowl, 42-14
2. Oregon (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 35-17
3. Ohio State (12-0): No bowl
4. Notre Dame (12-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 14-42
5t. Georgia (12-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 45-31
5t. Texas A&M (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-13
7. Stanford (12-2): Won Rose Bowl, 20-14
8. South Carolina (11-2): Won Outback Bowl, 33-28
9. Florida (11-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 23-33
10. Florida State (12-2): Won Orange Bowl, 31-10
Another season in the books, and another fraud on our hands. And only the hicks in the South -- you know, the peeps who lost the Civil War almost 150 years ago -- buy it. Which is why they keep "winning" whatever it is the BCS claims they win.
Obvious logic and bias aside, there are only two teams under consideration, because unlike the BCS, I am consistent -- since teams that didn't win their conference can't win the title, Oregon isn't eligible for consideration this year.
That leaves us with Ohio State and and Alabama. The Buckeyes were "ineligible" for the "title game", because some kids got free tattoos a few years ago -- and the then-coach lied about it to the NCAA. That has nothing to do with the current kids, of course, which has always been my contention in discussion teams on probation. This current team was not put together in violation of NCAA rules (see Clemson, 1981) -- they are merely paying the price for previous rosters' infractions.
So, the simple question is this: was Alabama's schedule good enough to overcome the loss they suffered?
On the surface, The Crimson Tide seem to have played a better schedule: they beat six teams that were ranked at the time of the games. The Buckeyes only played three teams that met that requirement. And I don't think anyone could really argue that Ohio State played a "better" schedule, overall.
But here are the raw numbers we've always used here:
Alabama's SOS: .547
Ohio State's SOS: .489
And being consistent again, since Alabama didn't have an SOS rating advantage of more than .100, they cannot overcome their loss to surpass Ohio State in this evaluation. Simple is simple: you win what's put in front of you, within reason, and no one with a loss can surpass you through subterfuge, lies and a media blitz.
Congratulations, The Ohio State University.
McMNC Revision:
1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012
1. Alabama (11-1): Won BCS Bowl, 42-14
2. Oregon (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 35-17
3. Ohio State (12-0): No bowl
4. Notre Dame (12-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 14-42
5t. Georgia (12-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 45-31
5t. Texas A&M (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-13
7. Stanford (12-2): Won Rose Bowl, 20-14
8. South Carolina (11-2): Won Outback Bowl, 33-28
9. Florida (11-2): Lost Sugar Bowl, 23-33
10. Florida State (12-2): Won Orange Bowl, 31-10
Another season in the books, and another fraud on our hands. And only the hicks in the South -- you know, the peeps who lost the Civil War almost 150 years ago -- buy it. Which is why they keep "winning" whatever it is the BCS claims they win.
Obvious logic and bias aside, there are only two teams under consideration, because unlike the BCS, I am consistent -- since teams that didn't win their conference can't win the title, Oregon isn't eligible for consideration this year.
That leaves us with Ohio State and and Alabama. The Buckeyes were "ineligible" for the "title game", because some kids got free tattoos a few years ago -- and the then-coach lied about it to the NCAA. That has nothing to do with the current kids, of course, which has always been my contention in discussion teams on probation. This current team was not put together in violation of NCAA rules (see Clemson, 1981) -- they are merely paying the price for previous rosters' infractions.
So, the simple question is this: was Alabama's schedule good enough to overcome the loss they suffered?
On the surface, The Crimson Tide seem to have played a better schedule: they beat six teams that were ranked at the time of the games. The Buckeyes only played three teams that met that requirement. And I don't think anyone could really argue that Ohio State played a "better" schedule, overall.
But here are the raw numbers we've always used here:
Alabama's SOS: .547
Ohio State's SOS: .489
And being consistent again, since Alabama didn't have an SOS rating advantage of more than .100, they cannot overcome their loss to surpass Ohio State in this evaluation. Simple is simple: you win what's put in front of you, within reason, and no one with a loss can surpass you through subterfuge, lies and a media blitz.
Congratulations, The Ohio State University.
McMNC Revision:
1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002, +2012
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011, -2012
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
2011 McMNC: Oklahoma State University
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama (12-1): Won BCS Bowl, 21-0
2. LSU (13-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 0-21
3. Oklahoma State (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 41-38
4. Oregon (12-2): Won Rose Bowl, 45-38
5. Arkansas (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 29-16
6. USC (10-2): No bowl
7. Stanford (11-2): Lost Fiesta Bowl, 38-41
8. Boise State (12-1): Won Las Vegas Bowl, 56-24
9. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 30-13
10. Wisconsin (11-3): Lost Rose Bowl, 38-45
Two of the steadfast rules I've always used in this analysis are basic: you have to win your conference, and you have to win your bowl game. In reviewing all MNCs since 1936 via analyzing the Associated Press poll, this has never changed. And this sixth laughable year in a row of BCS garbage has made my 2011 pick very easy.
Alabama didn't win its conference. LSU didn't win its bowl game.
See ya later, poseurs.
Oklahoma State did both, and the BCS shot itself in the foot as it continued to reveal its ineptitude and silliness in failing to determine a legitimate champion for the 11th time in 14 years. Why people claim with a straight face that "it's the best system we have" is a mystery only to those who live six feet under.
So the list of TUCs for the McMNC in 2011 is a very short one:
Start from the bottom of this list -- West Virginia had a fine season, but its three losses put it beyond the reach of catching Oklahoma State in terms of a potential SOS boost. One of my other steadfast rules has been that an SOS rating edge of 10%+ can compensate for an extra loss, and there's no way anyone has a 20% SOS rating edge on the Cowboys -- who probably played the toughest schedule in the country on their way to winning the toughest conference in the country this year. So the Mountaineers are out, even though that 37-point win over ACC champion Clemson in the Orange Bowl will always be something to hang a hat on with posterity.
Oregon won its first Rose Bowl since 1917 -- yes, shocking to know the Ducks even made the Rose Bowl in the early days, huh? -- but losing to LSU on the road and USC at home hurt it overall. If the Ducks had beaten USC, they were the team that probably deserved more of a rematch with LSU than Alabama did, but that's irrelevant. The Ducks beat a lot of bowl teams in 2011, including BCS qualifiers Stanford and Wisconsin. But they had two losses, which they can't escape in the end. The McMNC has only ever gone to two teams with two losses (1965 UCLA, 2007 West Virginia), and those were extreme circumstances. No such circumstances exist in 2011, thanks to the Fiesta Bowl result.
TCU -- the defending McMNC, I might add -- also had two losses. The Horned Frogs lost to Baylor and SMU by October 1, but they rebounded to win the Mountain West and the Poinsettia Bowl. Overall, their schedule was very weak in comparison to Oregon's schedule strength, however -- beating Louisiana Tech in a bowl game doesn't rate beating Wisconsin in a bowl game, of course. While Oregon beat two BCS teams, the best win TCU posted was over Boise State. So in the comparison of two-loss teams, Oregon has the edge on TCU.
Oklahoma State finished with one loss -- the road OT defeat to Iowa State that cost the Cowboys a spot in the alleged title game -- while beating six bowl teams in its own conference, including the Heisman Trophy winner (by 35 points, no less). According to Jeff Sagarin's pre-bowl rankings, they beat eight teams ranked in the Top 30 this year. No other team in the country -- including "mighty" LSU or "historic" Alabama -- beat more than six. Arguably, they played the toughest schedule in the country, while also winning their conference AND their bowl game (an OT win over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl -- which really was the saving grace for this whole post ...).
Oregon's schedule can't even come close to surpassing Oklahoma State's schedule, and thus, this decision was a very easy one.
McMNC Revision:
1. Oklahoma State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. West Virginia
5. (tie) LSU, Alabama
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Alabama (12-1): Won BCS Bowl, 21-0
2. LSU (13-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 0-21
3. Oklahoma State (12-1): Won Fiesta Bowl, 41-38
4. Oregon (12-2): Won Rose Bowl, 45-38
5. Arkansas (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 29-16
6. USC (10-2): No bowl
7. Stanford (11-2): Lost Fiesta Bowl, 38-41
8. Boise State (12-1): Won Las Vegas Bowl, 56-24
9. South Carolina (11-2): Won CapitalOne Bowl, 30-13
10. Wisconsin (11-3): Lost Rose Bowl, 38-45
Two of the steadfast rules I've always used in this analysis are basic: you have to win your conference, and you have to win your bowl game. In reviewing all MNCs since 1936 via analyzing the Associated Press poll, this has never changed. And this sixth laughable year in a row of BCS garbage has made my 2011 pick very easy.
Alabama didn't win its conference. LSU didn't win its bowl game.
See ya later, poseurs.
Oklahoma State did both, and the BCS shot itself in the foot as it continued to reveal its ineptitude and silliness in failing to determine a legitimate champion for the 11th time in 14 years. Why people claim with a straight face that "it's the best system we have" is a mystery only to those who live six feet under.
So the list of TUCs for the McMNC in 2011 is a very short one:
- Oklahoma State
- TCU
- Oregon
- West Virginia
Start from the bottom of this list -- West Virginia had a fine season, but its three losses put it beyond the reach of catching Oklahoma State in terms of a potential SOS boost. One of my other steadfast rules has been that an SOS rating edge of 10%+ can compensate for an extra loss, and there's no way anyone has a 20% SOS rating edge on the Cowboys -- who probably played the toughest schedule in the country on their way to winning the toughest conference in the country this year. So the Mountaineers are out, even though that 37-point win over ACC champion Clemson in the Orange Bowl will always be something to hang a hat on with posterity.
Oregon won its first Rose Bowl since 1917 -- yes, shocking to know the Ducks even made the Rose Bowl in the early days, huh? -- but losing to LSU on the road and USC at home hurt it overall. If the Ducks had beaten USC, they were the team that probably deserved more of a rematch with LSU than Alabama did, but that's irrelevant. The Ducks beat a lot of bowl teams in 2011, including BCS qualifiers Stanford and Wisconsin. But they had two losses, which they can't escape in the end. The McMNC has only ever gone to two teams with two losses (1965 UCLA, 2007 West Virginia), and those were extreme circumstances. No such circumstances exist in 2011, thanks to the Fiesta Bowl result.
TCU -- the defending McMNC, I might add -- also had two losses. The Horned Frogs lost to Baylor and SMU by October 1, but they rebounded to win the Mountain West and the Poinsettia Bowl. Overall, their schedule was very weak in comparison to Oregon's schedule strength, however -- beating Louisiana Tech in a bowl game doesn't rate beating Wisconsin in a bowl game, of course. While Oregon beat two BCS teams, the best win TCU posted was over Boise State. So in the comparison of two-loss teams, Oregon has the edge on TCU.
Oklahoma State finished with one loss -- the road OT defeat to Iowa State that cost the Cowboys a spot in the alleged title game -- while beating six bowl teams in its own conference, including the Heisman Trophy winner (by 35 points, no less). According to Jeff Sagarin's pre-bowl rankings, they beat eight teams ranked in the Top 30 this year. No other team in the country -- including "mighty" LSU or "historic" Alabama -- beat more than six. Arguably, they played the toughest schedule in the country, while also winning their conference AND their bowl game (an OT win over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl -- which really was the saving grace for this whole post ...).
Oregon's schedule can't even come close to surpassing Oklahoma State's schedule, and thus, this decision was a very easy one.
McMNC Revision:
1. Oklahoma State
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. West Virginia
5. (tie) LSU, Alabama
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Oklahoma State: +2011
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009, -2011
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
2010 McMNC: Texas Christian University
AP Top 11: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Auburn (14-0): Won BCS Bowl, 22-19
2. TCU (13-0): Won Rose Bowl, 21-19
3. Oregon (12-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 19-22
4. Stanford (12-1): Won Orange Bowl, 40-12
5. Ohio State (12-1): Won Sugar Bowl, 31-26
6. Oklahoma (12-2): Won Fiesta Bowl, 48-20
7. Wisconsin (11-2): Lost Rose Bowl, 19-21
8. LSU (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-24
9. Boise State (12-1): Won Las Vegas Bowl, 26-3
10. Alabama (10-3): Won Capital One Bowl, 49-7
11. Nevada (13-1): Won Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, 20-13
Two points need to be made here before I proceed:
1) I'm an attorney. I have lived my adult life based on firm structure: the law. It is not negotiable; it is not flexible. It is firm, and it does not waver. I have passed bar exams in three different states; I make almost $500k a year; I am damn good at practicing law. And the law does not bend. In direct opposition to everything I represent at my core is the NCAA: it "convicts" without sufficient evidence using a threshold that doesn't hold up under scrutiny from third-party assessment, and it exonerates when hard evidence is present (and confirmed by independent law-enforcement entities). It has no conscience, no rigidity and no structure. It is a lie. For the past 12-18 months or so, we've seen the real NCAA start losing control of big-time college football, and that process is now complete. There is NO WAY any student-athlete -- whether s/he knows of it or not -- can be shopped around in the recruiting process and maintain their eligible for college athletics. That violates the very core of what the NCAA was created for. To wit, the NCAA's mission statement: "Our purpose is to govern competition in a fair, safe, equitable and sportsmanlike manner, and to integrate intercollegiate athletics into higher education so that the educational experience of the student-athlete is paramount." The NCAA has failed this mission when it comes to Division I-A football, but I will not fail in my purpose here;
2) I know some of you reading this won't like it, and I don't give a shit. Because I'm right, you're wrong, and time will prove this. So get over it, enjoy being part of the problem that is killing something with great potential, and live with yourself in shame. It's your right.
Based on these two statements, there is no way I am considering Auburn (or Ohio State, for that matter, as they used FIVE ineligible players all season long) for the 2010 McMNC. They used an ineligible player in all 14 of their games, and they are ineligible for my selection process. I noticed that Auburn didn't win either poll unanimously, which means there are other people out there who feel the same way I do. That's enough justification for me, even if the masses are morons, lemmings and ignorant fools. There's a reason my email handle is what it is, you know -- because most people are ridiculous, stupid and a waste of space.
If you don't like it, I don't care. Post your own rankings and express your own worthless opinion. If you can't even do that, you're proving you're a waste of space.
So, on with the show ...
Teams under consideration in 2010 must have won their conference (or at least a share of it) and won their bowl game. This leaves us with TCU, Boise State, Nevada and ... Oregon (because Auburn isn't eligible to win their bowl game with an ineligible player). The Ducks get screwed in all of this, of course, but we'll deal with that in a moment. They did lose the game, so it's a loss in their W-L record -- but for this TUC discussion, they didn't lose their bowl game.
TCU: The Horned Frogs have a big edge as the only team that finished undefeated in 2010. Their SOS was rated at 48%, which isn't good. But they did beat seven bowl teams by an average of 22.6 points a game -- so when they played the better teams, they beat those teams badly. They beat Baylor by 35, SMU by 17, BYU by 28, Air Force by 31 and Utah by 40. Yes, they squeaked by SDSU by five and Wisconsin by two, as well. In essence, for a one-loss team to jump TCU, they better have played a ridiculously hard schedule.
Boise State: Their one loss was on the road to fellow TUC Nevada, so that actually eliminates the Broncos from contention here. Their SOS is irrelevant, as they lose a H2H tiebreak.
Nevada: Their one loss was on the road to Hawaii, which won ten games this year. Not a bad loss, and it came early which always helps in the rankings. Although that's irrelevant here. Their SOS comes out at 47%, so they can't pass TCU with their one loss. But Nevada had a nice year: they beat FCS champ Eastern Washington by 25, they beat BYU by 14, they beat Fresno State by one, they beat Boise State by three, and they beat Boston College by seven. Not the best slate, but 13-1 is pretty good, period.
Oregon: The one loss to Auburn hurts, but the Ducks also had a great year. They have an SOS rating of 49%. So they can't overcome the loss in the title game to Auburn (thereby getting screwed royally by the NCAA; watch Phil Knight have his fun with the organization in the next few years ...). The Ducks beat four bowl teams in 2010, and they also beat two other teams that could have played in bowls if the NCAA had a backbone. But it's not enough.
In the end, TCU wins this easily. They were the best team in 2010, in terms of fielding an eligible team and adhering to NCAA rules and bylaws.
McMNC Revision:
1. TCU
2. Oregon
3. Nevada
4. Boise State
5. Stanford
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Auburn (14-0): Won BCS Bowl, 22-19
2. TCU (13-0): Won Rose Bowl, 21-19
3. Oregon (12-1): Lost BCS Bowl, 19-22
4. Stanford (12-1): Won Orange Bowl, 40-12
5. Ohio State (12-1): Won Sugar Bowl, 31-26
6. Oklahoma (12-2): Won Fiesta Bowl, 48-20
7. Wisconsin (11-2): Lost Rose Bowl, 19-21
8. LSU (11-2): Won Cotton Bowl, 41-24
9. Boise State (12-1): Won Las Vegas Bowl, 26-3
10. Alabama (10-3): Won Capital One Bowl, 49-7
11. Nevada (13-1): Won Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, 20-13
Two points need to be made here before I proceed:
1) I'm an attorney. I have lived my adult life based on firm structure: the law. It is not negotiable; it is not flexible. It is firm, and it does not waver. I have passed bar exams in three different states; I make almost $500k a year; I am damn good at practicing law. And the law does not bend. In direct opposition to everything I represent at my core is the NCAA: it "convicts" without sufficient evidence using a threshold that doesn't hold up under scrutiny from third-party assessment, and it exonerates when hard evidence is present (and confirmed by independent law-enforcement entities). It has no conscience, no rigidity and no structure. It is a lie. For the past 12-18 months or so, we've seen the real NCAA start losing control of big-time college football, and that process is now complete. There is NO WAY any student-athlete -- whether s/he knows of it or not -- can be shopped around in the recruiting process and maintain their eligible for college athletics. That violates the very core of what the NCAA was created for. To wit, the NCAA's mission statement: "Our purpose is to govern competition in a fair, safe, equitable and sportsmanlike manner, and to integrate intercollegiate athletics into higher education so that the educational experience of the student-athlete is paramount." The NCAA has failed this mission when it comes to Division I-A football, but I will not fail in my purpose here;
2) I know some of you reading this won't like it, and I don't give a shit. Because I'm right, you're wrong, and time will prove this. So get over it, enjoy being part of the problem that is killing something with great potential, and live with yourself in shame. It's your right.
Based on these two statements, there is no way I am considering Auburn (or Ohio State, for that matter, as they used FIVE ineligible players all season long) for the 2010 McMNC. They used an ineligible player in all 14 of their games, and they are ineligible for my selection process. I noticed that Auburn didn't win either poll unanimously, which means there are other people out there who feel the same way I do. That's enough justification for me, even if the masses are morons, lemmings and ignorant fools. There's a reason my email handle is what it is, you know -- because most people are ridiculous, stupid and a waste of space.
If you don't like it, I don't care. Post your own rankings and express your own worthless opinion. If you can't even do that, you're proving you're a waste of space.
So, on with the show ...
Teams under consideration in 2010 must have won their conference (or at least a share of it) and won their bowl game. This leaves us with TCU, Boise State, Nevada and ... Oregon (because Auburn isn't eligible to win their bowl game with an ineligible player). The Ducks get screwed in all of this, of course, but we'll deal with that in a moment. They did lose the game, so it's a loss in their W-L record -- but for this TUC discussion, they didn't lose their bowl game.
TCU: The Horned Frogs have a big edge as the only team that finished undefeated in 2010. Their SOS was rated at 48%, which isn't good. But they did beat seven bowl teams by an average of 22.6 points a game -- so when they played the better teams, they beat those teams badly. They beat Baylor by 35, SMU by 17, BYU by 28, Air Force by 31 and Utah by 40. Yes, they squeaked by SDSU by five and Wisconsin by two, as well. In essence, for a one-loss team to jump TCU, they better have played a ridiculously hard schedule.
Boise State: Their one loss was on the road to fellow TUC Nevada, so that actually eliminates the Broncos from contention here. Their SOS is irrelevant, as they lose a H2H tiebreak.
Nevada: Their one loss was on the road to Hawaii, which won ten games this year. Not a bad loss, and it came early which always helps in the rankings. Although that's irrelevant here. Their SOS comes out at 47%, so they can't pass TCU with their one loss. But Nevada had a nice year: they beat FCS champ Eastern Washington by 25, they beat BYU by 14, they beat Fresno State by one, they beat Boise State by three, and they beat Boston College by seven. Not the best slate, but 13-1 is pretty good, period.
Oregon: The one loss to Auburn hurts, but the Ducks also had a great year. They have an SOS rating of 49%. So they can't overcome the loss in the title game to Auburn (thereby getting screwed royally by the NCAA; watch Phil Knight have his fun with the organization in the next few years ...). The Ducks beat four bowl teams in 2010, and they also beat two other teams that could have played in bowls if the NCAA had a backbone. But it's not enough.
In the end, TCU wins this easily. They were the best team in 2010, in terms of fielding an eligible team and adhering to NCAA rules and bylaws.
McMNC Revision:
1. TCU
2. Oregon
3. Nevada
4. Boise State
5. Stanford
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
TCU: -1938, +2010
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
Auburn: -1957, +1983, -2010
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Friday, January 8, 2010
2009 McMNC: Alabama Crimson Tide
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Alabama (14-0); Won BCS Bowl, 37-21
2. Texas (13-1); Lost BCS Bowl, 21-37
3. Florida (13-1); Won Sugar Bowl, 51-24
4. Boise State (14-0); Won Fiesta Bowl, 17-10
5. Ohio State (11-2); Won Rose Bowl, 27-16
6. TCU (12-1); Lose Fiesta Bowl, 10-17
7. Iowa (11-2); Won Orange Bowl, 24-14
8. Cincinnati (12-1); Lost Sugar Bowl, 24-51
9. Penn State (11-2); Won Citrus Bowl, 19-17
10. Virginia Tech (10-3); Won Peach Bowl, 37-14
The BCS did a snow job this year on the American public, eliminating as many claims to the throne as they could -- and sadly, it worked. With five undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, denying any of their resumes for the "title" game constituted fraud.
But Cincinnati, TCU and Texas all lost their perfect seasons with no-shows in their bowl game. The Bearcats coach disappeared for greener pastures, and when Cincinnati's second-in-command also bolted for another job before the Sugar Bowl, they were cooked. TCU had the best claim to the title game gone unheard, but by losing to Boise State and its lesser claim, the Horned Frogs helped the BCS. Texas lost its quarterback and its chances early in the Second Rose Bowl, making Alabama's claim rather dubious. After all, beating Texas is easier when they're missing the winningest QB in NCAA history.
Yet Texas still did a better job against The Tide than Florida did, despite having a freshman QB playing for 58+ minutes.
So it does come down to Alabama and Boise State. Both teams ran the table; both teams beat undefeated rivals in a BCS bowl game. Both teams claim wins over other BCS conference champions.
How to separate the two? BCS apologists will claim The Tide played a better schedule. They did, but Boise beat six bowl teams in 2009. Their schedule didn't "suck". Alabama beat ten bowl teams, which is more impressive, although considering six SEC teams wouldn't have qualified for bowls without their patsy OOC schedules (see below), that claim is somewhat hollow.
South Carolina (7-6, lost bowl game): Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State
Kentucky (7-6, lost bowl game): Miami-OH, Louisiana-Monroe, and Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas (8-5, won bowl game because ECU couldn't kick a FG): Missouri State, Eastern Michigan and Troy
Mississippi (9-4, won bowl game because Oklahoma State couldn't hold on to the ball): Memphis, Southeastern Louisiana, UAB and Northern Arizona
Auburn (8-5, won bowl game because Northwestern couldn't kick a FG): Louisiana Tech, Ball State and Furman
Tennessee (7-6, lost bowl game): Western Kentucky, Ohio and Memphis
So Alabama played a marginally better schedule, but it did beat better teams by bigger margins. And that is what stands out most.
Yet it's a unique situation for the McMNC, where you have two undefeated teams with impressive bowl wins over undefeated conference champs, etc. When was the last time that happened? It's so rare you get even two undefeated teams into a potential MNC game, let alone two potential MNC games.
Has it ever happened before? The last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was 2004, and the BCS shunted Utah to the Fiesta Bowl instead of letting them play Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. Before that, the last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was ... 1992 (sort of). Alabama and Miami-FL played a MNC game, but Texas A&M was contractually obligated to the Cotton Bowl and Michigan (with its three ties) was obligated to the Rose Bowl.
Not quite the same.
Thirty years ago (1979), four unbeatens remained: #2 Alabama, #3 USC (albeit with a tie), #1 Ohio State and #4 Florida State. The Rose Bowl gave us a great matchup, but the Tide played #6 Arkansas in the Sugar instead of FSU, and the Seminoles played in the Orange Bowl. Not sure what the politics were there, but it was a golden opportunity missed.
In 1973, there were SEVEN unbeaten teams at the end of the regular season. The Sugar Bowl had Notre Dame and Alabama, which was good. But Ohio State (with its tie) had to play in the Rose Bowl, while Oklahoma was on probation and ineligible for a bowl. Penn State played in the Orange Bowl, but not against Miami-OH or Michigan (with a tie).
Anyway, you get the point. This 2009 was VERY unique, and it SCREAMED for a plus-one format. And of course, we don't get it.
Looking back at these years above, what did I do with the McMNCs? Went by schedule strength and bowl-win power to determine the tiebreak. Nothing different this year, which is no knock on Boise State. They were one of the best programs of the 2000s, and they already have an McMNC this decade (2006).
Overall, there isn't much to say here; this isn't 2006, where the Broncos were the only undefeated team in the country after winning the Fiesta Bowl. While I would have no qualm with Boise State claiming a piece of the MNC, I do think Alabama was the best team in college football this year by objective standards consistently used here.
Congratulations to the Crimson Tide on their first McMNC since 1992.
McMNC Revisions:
1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. TCU
4. Texas
5. Florida
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Alabama (14-0); Won BCS Bowl, 37-21
2. Texas (13-1); Lost BCS Bowl, 21-37
3. Florida (13-1); Won Sugar Bowl, 51-24
4. Boise State (14-0); Won Fiesta Bowl, 17-10
5. Ohio State (11-2); Won Rose Bowl, 27-16
6. TCU (12-1); Lose Fiesta Bowl, 10-17
7. Iowa (11-2); Won Orange Bowl, 24-14
8. Cincinnati (12-1); Lost Sugar Bowl, 24-51
9. Penn State (11-2); Won Citrus Bowl, 19-17
10. Virginia Tech (10-3); Won Peach Bowl, 37-14
The BCS did a snow job this year on the American public, eliminating as many claims to the throne as they could -- and sadly, it worked. With five undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, denying any of their resumes for the "title" game constituted fraud.
But Cincinnati, TCU and Texas all lost their perfect seasons with no-shows in their bowl game. The Bearcats coach disappeared for greener pastures, and when Cincinnati's second-in-command also bolted for another job before the Sugar Bowl, they were cooked. TCU had the best claim to the title game gone unheard, but by losing to Boise State and its lesser claim, the Horned Frogs helped the BCS. Texas lost its quarterback and its chances early in the Second Rose Bowl, making Alabama's claim rather dubious. After all, beating Texas is easier when they're missing the winningest QB in NCAA history.
Yet Texas still did a better job against The Tide than Florida did, despite having a freshman QB playing for 58+ minutes.
So it does come down to Alabama and Boise State. Both teams ran the table; both teams beat undefeated rivals in a BCS bowl game. Both teams claim wins over other BCS conference champions.
How to separate the two? BCS apologists will claim The Tide played a better schedule. They did, but Boise beat six bowl teams in 2009. Their schedule didn't "suck". Alabama beat ten bowl teams, which is more impressive, although considering six SEC teams wouldn't have qualified for bowls without their patsy OOC schedules (see below), that claim is somewhat hollow.
South Carolina (7-6, lost bowl game): Florida Atlantic and South Carolina State
Kentucky (7-6, lost bowl game): Miami-OH, Louisiana-Monroe, and Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas (8-5, won bowl game because ECU couldn't kick a FG): Missouri State, Eastern Michigan and Troy
Mississippi (9-4, won bowl game because Oklahoma State couldn't hold on to the ball): Memphis, Southeastern Louisiana, UAB and Northern Arizona
Auburn (8-5, won bowl game because Northwestern couldn't kick a FG): Louisiana Tech, Ball State and Furman
Tennessee (7-6, lost bowl game): Western Kentucky, Ohio and Memphis
So Alabama played a marginally better schedule, but it did beat better teams by bigger margins. And that is what stands out most.
Yet it's a unique situation for the McMNC, where you have two undefeated teams with impressive bowl wins over undefeated conference champs, etc. When was the last time that happened? It's so rare you get even two undefeated teams into a potential MNC game, let alone two potential MNC games.
Has it ever happened before? The last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was 2004, and the BCS shunted Utah to the Fiesta Bowl instead of letting them play Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. Before that, the last time there were four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season was ... 1992 (sort of). Alabama and Miami-FL played a MNC game, but Texas A&M was contractually obligated to the Cotton Bowl and Michigan (with its three ties) was obligated to the Rose Bowl.
Not quite the same.
Thirty years ago (1979), four unbeatens remained: #2 Alabama, #3 USC (albeit with a tie), #1 Ohio State and #4 Florida State. The Rose Bowl gave us a great matchup, but the Tide played #6 Arkansas in the Sugar instead of FSU, and the Seminoles played in the Orange Bowl. Not sure what the politics were there, but it was a golden opportunity missed.
In 1973, there were SEVEN unbeaten teams at the end of the regular season. The Sugar Bowl had Notre Dame and Alabama, which was good. But Ohio State (with its tie) had to play in the Rose Bowl, while Oklahoma was on probation and ineligible for a bowl. Penn State played in the Orange Bowl, but not against Miami-OH or Michigan (with a tie).
Anyway, you get the point. This 2009 was VERY unique, and it SCREAMED for a plus-one format. And of course, we don't get it.
Looking back at these years above, what did I do with the McMNCs? Went by schedule strength and bowl-win power to determine the tiebreak. Nothing different this year, which is no knock on Boise State. They were one of the best programs of the 2000s, and they already have an McMNC this decade (2006).
Overall, there isn't much to say here; this isn't 2006, where the Broncos were the only undefeated team in the country after winning the Fiesta Bowl. While I would have no qualm with Boise State claiming a piece of the MNC, I do think Alabama was the best team in college football this year by objective standards consistently used here.
Congratulations to the Crimson Tide on their first McMNC since 1992.
McMNC Revisions:
1. Alabama
2. Boise State
3. TCU
4. Texas
5. Florida
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992, =2009
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Friday, January 9, 2009
2008 McMNC: Utah Utes
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Florida: 13-1 -- W, BCS, 24-14
2. Utah: 13-0 -- W, Sugar, 31-17
3. USC: 12-1 -- W, Rose, 38-24
4. Texas: 12-1 -- W, Fiesta, 24-21
5. Oklahoma: 12-2 -- L, BCS, 14-24
6. Alabama: 12-2 -- L, Sugar, 17-31
7. TCU: 11-2 -- W, Poinsetta, 17-16
8. Penn State: 11-2 -- L, Rose, 24-38
9. Ohio State: 10-3 -- L, Fiesta, 21-24
10. Oregon: 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 42-31
So, this was yet another year of the BCS ridiculousness. After USC's road loss to Oregon State in their third game, the Trojans were summarily dismissed as contenders for the BCS title game. Meanwhile, the same week, Florida lost at home to Mississippi and was NOT summarily dismissed from the title game discussion.
Therein lies the problem. Both Oregon State and Mississippi finished 9-4, so there was no shame in either loss. But the powers-that-be arbitrarily decided that USC's ROAD loss eliminated the Trojans, while the Gators' HOME loss did not eliminate Florida. Go figure.
In the end, there were nine teams with no losses or one loss at the end of the regular season, and why the BCS arbitrarily chose Oklahoma and Florida to play for the "title" was just as contrived as the above "evaluation" of USC and Florida after their early losses.
Even more befuddling was the Big XII South this year, which left us with 11-1 teams Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in a roundabout tie. Texas beat Oklahoma by ten points on a neutral field, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma by five points at home on a last-second TD, and Oklahoma annihilated Texas Tech by 40+ points at home. The tiebreak? The BCS formula. Voters screwed that one up, too, ignoring the Longhorns' neutral site victory and awarding the Sooners for running up the score at home.
The BCS doesn't use computer formulas that use "margin of victory", though. Uh huh.
In the end, however, we were left with some interesting bowl matchups which would eliminate some of the TUCs for 2008: USC vs. Penn State, Florida vs. Oklahoma, Alabama vs. Utah. That would reduce six TUCs to just three. Other games featuring TUCs were TCU vs. Boise State, Mississippi vs. Texas Tech and Texas vs. Ohio State.
After the bowl games, we were really left with only four legitimate teams as potential McMNCs: 13-0 Utah, 13-1 Florida, 12-1 USC and 12-1 Texas. That takes care of the bowl-game criterion: you must win the bowl game.
Check.
Now, you must also win your conference. That's been a staple here since 1936. But did Texas win their conference? In essence, yes, they did. They finished in a tie that could not be broken, due to the roundabout trio of H2H results noted above. Since the tiebreak that was used had nothing to do with on-the-field results, Oklahoma was chosen as the "Big XII South Champion". The Sooners proceeded to beat Missouri in the Big XII title game. Texas also beat Missouri during the regular season (56-31), so the Longhorns get the nod there, too. And, they beat the Sooners, 45-35, at a neutral site during the regular season. So for all intents and purposes, the Longhorns were virtual Big XII champions.
So, how to split hairs between Utah, Florida, USC and Texas?
First, anyone who tries to claim that one team is definitively better than the others is idiotic. Without H2H results, we know nothing. All we can do is speculate according to our biases. Smarter people try to remove their biases as best possible, but even in the choice of the "objective", we are being subjective. Therefore, all anyone can do is present what they think, support it and leave it to the audience to decide on their own.
The BCS, however, is a joke. This has been clear for three years now, if not longer. But these past three seasons represent a nadir in the BCS's integrity, as we've seen ridiculous lobbying, media interference and corrupt financial influence deciding matters that can only be decided on the field. If anyone really thinks the BCS "works", then they're living in a world no one else inhabits except those at Jonestown.
Let's look at the TUCs, however:
1) Utah -- The only undefeated team in the FBS this year, the Utes played a schedule with a base SOS of 52%. That's on the good side, of course, and well in-line with past schedules of McMNC winners. They 8-5 Air Force on the road by seven points, they beat 9-4 Weber State at home by 16 points, they beat 9-4 Oregon State at home by three points, they beat 7-6 Colorado State by 33 points at home, they beat 11-2 TCU at home by three points, they beat 10-3 BYU at home by 24 points, and they beat 12-2 Alabama on the road in the Sugar Bowl by 14 points.
The Utes can't help the conference they're in -- that cannot be a requisite for winning a title. The OOC slate for Utah included 3-9 Michigan, 3-9 Utah State (a regional "rival"), 9-4 Weber State (another regional "rival"), and 9-4 Oregon State. Utah split its four OOC games between BCS big boys and regional punching bags. No one knew Michigan would be 3-9 when the season began, so that opening win over the Wolverines was huge. And no one knew Michigan would 3-9 when that game was scheduled years ago. Utah did enough to satiate its schedule strength.
Plus, they beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Convincingly. In fact, of the four TUCs, Utah had the second-best bowl win: they beat a 12-1 team in its own backyard handily, jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first quarter, never surrendering the lead and never giving The Tide a chance to even tie the game after midway through the first quarter. They dominated Alabama like no other team had all year, including Florida.
Utah is for real. They went undefeated. They won a road bowl game, basically, and they did it with ease. They beat six bowl teams, and they beat seven teams with winning records. There was nothing "easy" about Utah's schedule.
2) Florida -- The Gators won the SEC, and their SOS was 59%. At first glance, that's certainly not enough to overcome the loss as traditionally measured in these McMNC analyses. Plus, if you remove the conference title game, it falls to 56%. The conference title games, like the schedules, are not within the players' control, and to continue to use them as examples of superiority is pure circular logic. In any case, Florida played ten winnings teams in 2008 (although four of them were merely 7-6, thanks to favorable OOC scheduling). Impressive, to be sure, but not as much as the experts would have you believe.
Florida's bowl win, a 24-14 win over 12-2 Oklahoma, was tied at 14 in the middle of the fourth quarter. That's certainly not a dominating win. A clutch win, but not dominating. Florida's one loss came at home to 9-4 Mississippi in the Gators' fourth game of the season.
The Gators' OOC slate? 7-7 Hawai'i, 7-6 Miami, 4-8 The Citadel, and 9-4 Florida State. Making the Rainbow Warriors travel east isn't impressive; it's easy pickings. Scheduling The Citadel is just inexcusable. Miami-FL and FSU are regional rivals, so like Utah, Florida split its OOC slate with the good and the bad.
3) USC -- The Trojans went 12-1 while winning the Pac-10 for the seventh straight season. This was also USC's seventh-straight season with at least 11 wins. They played in their seventh-straight BCS bowl game. No other program in the country can even come close to matching that current streak of dominance.
But this is about 2008 alone. The Trojans went 12-1 against an SOS of 52%. Soft schedule? I don't think so. Also, if you remove doormats Washington and Washington State, teams USC had to play in their full conference round-robin schedule, that SOS rises to 56%.
USC had the most impressive bowl win of the season, too: a 38-24 thrashing of 11-2 Penn State, where it was 31-7 at halftime. Pete Carroll doesn't run up the score; he put his team on cruise control in the second half. No other TUC had a more impressive 30 minutes of bowl domination than USC, making the other 30 minutes irrelevant.
The Trojans' OOC slate? 5-7 Virginia, 10-3 Ohio State, 7-6 Notre Dame. All FBS teams. Easily, they have the best OOC scheduling -- the part the school DOES control -- of any TUC. In this decade, Virginia has had five winning seasons, by the way. Ohio State and Notre Dame are perennial contenders, if not outright powerhouses. There were no creampuffs on this schedule, and the Trojans can't help it if two league teams had their worst seasons in years this time around.
Even with those duds on the schedule, USC played seven winning teams in 2008.
4) Texas -- The Longhorns were defacto Big XII champs, as noted above. Their SOS rating? 60&, by far the best of the one-loss teams, and without a conference title game to artificially inflate the SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to 11-2 Texas Tech, by far the best loss of the one-loss bunch. However, Texas also had the weakest bowl win of the bunch, scrapping out a 24-21 win over 10-3 Ohio State.
The OOC slate for Texas? 7-6 Florida Atlantic, 5-7 UTEP (a regional "rival"), 10-3 Rice (another regional "rival"), and 5-7 Arkansas (a third regional "rival"). Interesting mix, as three teams are traditional foes and one was a random. Rice had a good season, and Arkansas is an FBS team -- as is FAU. Not great, but an average OOC slate.
So that's the skinny on the four teams. First task is to identify the best one-loss team of the bunch to face the Utes, because no one has the SOS rating to overcome the Utes' perfect season.
Hence, Florida vs. USC vs. Texas: Texas has the best schedule (60%-59% over Florida). USC has the best bowl win (easily, since the other two had to fight in the fourth quarter to win). USC has the best OOC slate (duh). Texas has the best wins (four wins over 10-win teams). Florida has the worst loss (the only road loss).
Florida is out, simply because they didn't win any categories, and they lost one, to boot.
So we're left with USC and Texas. The Longhorns have the SOS edge, USC has the better bowl win. USC has the better OOC slate, Texas has the best wins. USC has the worst loss.
Which means Texas is really the best of the one-loss teams.
So it comes down to Texas vs. Utah for the 2008 McMNC:
Utah didn't lose; Texas did. The Longhorns' SOS rating is eight points higher than Utah's, but we've seen similar gaps in the past. The Longhorns' edge in SOS can't overcome the one loss: the last-second TD from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree truly doomed Texas in 2008.
Not much else to say, but perfect records will almost always defeat blemished records. That's why they play the games, historically and traditionally.
McMNC Revisions
1. Utah
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Florida
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Florida: 13-1 -- W, BCS, 24-14
2. Utah: 13-0 -- W, Sugar, 31-17
3. USC: 12-1 -- W, Rose, 38-24
4. Texas: 12-1 -- W, Fiesta, 24-21
5. Oklahoma: 12-2 -- L, BCS, 14-24
6. Alabama: 12-2 -- L, Sugar, 17-31
7. TCU: 11-2 -- W, Poinsetta, 17-16
8. Penn State: 11-2 -- L, Rose, 24-38
9. Ohio State: 10-3 -- L, Fiesta, 21-24
10. Oregon: 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 42-31
So, this was yet another year of the BCS ridiculousness. After USC's road loss to Oregon State in their third game, the Trojans were summarily dismissed as contenders for the BCS title game. Meanwhile, the same week, Florida lost at home to Mississippi and was NOT summarily dismissed from the title game discussion.
Therein lies the problem. Both Oregon State and Mississippi finished 9-4, so there was no shame in either loss. But the powers-that-be arbitrarily decided that USC's ROAD loss eliminated the Trojans, while the Gators' HOME loss did not eliminate Florida. Go figure.
In the end, there were nine teams with no losses or one loss at the end of the regular season, and why the BCS arbitrarily chose Oklahoma and Florida to play for the "title" was just as contrived as the above "evaluation" of USC and Florida after their early losses.
Even more befuddling was the Big XII South this year, which left us with 11-1 teams Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech in a roundabout tie. Texas beat Oklahoma by ten points on a neutral field, Texas Tech beat Oklahoma by five points at home on a last-second TD, and Oklahoma annihilated Texas Tech by 40+ points at home. The tiebreak? The BCS formula. Voters screwed that one up, too, ignoring the Longhorns' neutral site victory and awarding the Sooners for running up the score at home.
The BCS doesn't use computer formulas that use "margin of victory", though. Uh huh.
In the end, however, we were left with some interesting bowl matchups which would eliminate some of the TUCs for 2008: USC vs. Penn State, Florida vs. Oklahoma, Alabama vs. Utah. That would reduce six TUCs to just three. Other games featuring TUCs were TCU vs. Boise State, Mississippi vs. Texas Tech and Texas vs. Ohio State.
After the bowl games, we were really left with only four legitimate teams as potential McMNCs: 13-0 Utah, 13-1 Florida, 12-1 USC and 12-1 Texas. That takes care of the bowl-game criterion: you must win the bowl game.
Check.
Now, you must also win your conference. That's been a staple here since 1936. But did Texas win their conference? In essence, yes, they did. They finished in a tie that could not be broken, due to the roundabout trio of H2H results noted above. Since the tiebreak that was used had nothing to do with on-the-field results, Oklahoma was chosen as the "Big XII South Champion". The Sooners proceeded to beat Missouri in the Big XII title game. Texas also beat Missouri during the regular season (56-31), so the Longhorns get the nod there, too. And, they beat the Sooners, 45-35, at a neutral site during the regular season. So for all intents and purposes, the Longhorns were virtual Big XII champions.
So, how to split hairs between Utah, Florida, USC and Texas?
First, anyone who tries to claim that one team is definitively better than the others is idiotic. Without H2H results, we know nothing. All we can do is speculate according to our biases. Smarter people try to remove their biases as best possible, but even in the choice of the "objective", we are being subjective. Therefore, all anyone can do is present what they think, support it and leave it to the audience to decide on their own.
The BCS, however, is a joke. This has been clear for three years now, if not longer. But these past three seasons represent a nadir in the BCS's integrity, as we've seen ridiculous lobbying, media interference and corrupt financial influence deciding matters that can only be decided on the field. If anyone really thinks the BCS "works", then they're living in a world no one else inhabits except those at Jonestown.
Let's look at the TUCs, however:
1) Utah -- The only undefeated team in the FBS this year, the Utes played a schedule with a base SOS of 52%. That's on the good side, of course, and well in-line with past schedules of McMNC winners. They 8-5 Air Force on the road by seven points, they beat 9-4 Weber State at home by 16 points, they beat 9-4 Oregon State at home by three points, they beat 7-6 Colorado State by 33 points at home, they beat 11-2 TCU at home by three points, they beat 10-3 BYU at home by 24 points, and they beat 12-2 Alabama on the road in the Sugar Bowl by 14 points.
The Utes can't help the conference they're in -- that cannot be a requisite for winning a title. The OOC slate for Utah included 3-9 Michigan, 3-9 Utah State (a regional "rival"), 9-4 Weber State (another regional "rival"), and 9-4 Oregon State. Utah split its four OOC games between BCS big boys and regional punching bags. No one knew Michigan would be 3-9 when the season began, so that opening win over the Wolverines was huge. And no one knew Michigan would 3-9 when that game was scheduled years ago. Utah did enough to satiate its schedule strength.
Plus, they beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Convincingly. In fact, of the four TUCs, Utah had the second-best bowl win: they beat a 12-1 team in its own backyard handily, jumping out to a 21-point lead in the first quarter, never surrendering the lead and never giving The Tide a chance to even tie the game after midway through the first quarter. They dominated Alabama like no other team had all year, including Florida.
Utah is for real. They went undefeated. They won a road bowl game, basically, and they did it with ease. They beat six bowl teams, and they beat seven teams with winning records. There was nothing "easy" about Utah's schedule.
2) Florida -- The Gators won the SEC, and their SOS was 59%. At first glance, that's certainly not enough to overcome the loss as traditionally measured in these McMNC analyses. Plus, if you remove the conference title game, it falls to 56%. The conference title games, like the schedules, are not within the players' control, and to continue to use them as examples of superiority is pure circular logic. In any case, Florida played ten winnings teams in 2008 (although four of them were merely 7-6, thanks to favorable OOC scheduling). Impressive, to be sure, but not as much as the experts would have you believe.
Florida's bowl win, a 24-14 win over 12-2 Oklahoma, was tied at 14 in the middle of the fourth quarter. That's certainly not a dominating win. A clutch win, but not dominating. Florida's one loss came at home to 9-4 Mississippi in the Gators' fourth game of the season.
The Gators' OOC slate? 7-7 Hawai'i, 7-6 Miami, 4-8 The Citadel, and 9-4 Florida State. Making the Rainbow Warriors travel east isn't impressive; it's easy pickings. Scheduling The Citadel is just inexcusable. Miami-FL and FSU are regional rivals, so like Utah, Florida split its OOC slate with the good and the bad.
3) USC -- The Trojans went 12-1 while winning the Pac-10 for the seventh straight season. This was also USC's seventh-straight season with at least 11 wins. They played in their seventh-straight BCS bowl game. No other program in the country can even come close to matching that current streak of dominance.
But this is about 2008 alone. The Trojans went 12-1 against an SOS of 52%. Soft schedule? I don't think so. Also, if you remove doormats Washington and Washington State, teams USC had to play in their full conference round-robin schedule, that SOS rises to 56%.
USC had the most impressive bowl win of the season, too: a 38-24 thrashing of 11-2 Penn State, where it was 31-7 at halftime. Pete Carroll doesn't run up the score; he put his team on cruise control in the second half. No other TUC had a more impressive 30 minutes of bowl domination than USC, making the other 30 minutes irrelevant.
The Trojans' OOC slate? 5-7 Virginia, 10-3 Ohio State, 7-6 Notre Dame. All FBS teams. Easily, they have the best OOC scheduling -- the part the school DOES control -- of any TUC. In this decade, Virginia has had five winning seasons, by the way. Ohio State and Notre Dame are perennial contenders, if not outright powerhouses. There were no creampuffs on this schedule, and the Trojans can't help it if two league teams had their worst seasons in years this time around.
Even with those duds on the schedule, USC played seven winning teams in 2008.
4) Texas -- The Longhorns were defacto Big XII champs, as noted above. Their SOS rating? 60&, by far the best of the one-loss teams, and without a conference title game to artificially inflate the SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to 11-2 Texas Tech, by far the best loss of the one-loss bunch. However, Texas also had the weakest bowl win of the bunch, scrapping out a 24-21 win over 10-3 Ohio State.
The OOC slate for Texas? 7-6 Florida Atlantic, 5-7 UTEP (a regional "rival"), 10-3 Rice (another regional "rival"), and 5-7 Arkansas (a third regional "rival"). Interesting mix, as three teams are traditional foes and one was a random. Rice had a good season, and Arkansas is an FBS team -- as is FAU. Not great, but an average OOC slate.
So that's the skinny on the four teams. First task is to identify the best one-loss team of the bunch to face the Utes, because no one has the SOS rating to overcome the Utes' perfect season.
Hence, Florida vs. USC vs. Texas: Texas has the best schedule (60%-59% over Florida). USC has the best bowl win (easily, since the other two had to fight in the fourth quarter to win). USC has the best OOC slate (duh). Texas has the best wins (four wins over 10-win teams). Florida has the worst loss (the only road loss).
Florida is out, simply because they didn't win any categories, and they lost one, to boot.
So we're left with USC and Texas. The Longhorns have the SOS edge, USC has the better bowl win. USC has the better OOC slate, Texas has the best wins. USC has the worst loss.
Which means Texas is really the best of the one-loss teams.
So it comes down to Texas vs. Utah for the 2008 McMNC:
Utah didn't lose; Texas did. The Longhorns' SOS rating is eight points higher than Utah's, but we've seen similar gaps in the past. The Longhorns' edge in SOS can't overcome the one loss: the last-second TD from Graham Harrell to Michael Crabtree truly doomed Texas in 2008.
Not much else to say, but perfect records will almost always defeat blemished records. That's why they play the games, historically and traditionally.
McMNC Revisions
1. Utah
2. Texas
3. USC
4. Florida
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Utah: +2008
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Florida: =1996, -2006, -2008
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
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