Monday, April 28, 2008

1966 McMNC: Notre Dame Fighting Irish

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Notre Dame: 9-0-1 -- NONE
2. Michigan State: 9-0-1 -- NONE
3. Alabama: 11-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 34-7
4. Georgia: 10-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 24-9
5. UCLA: 9-1-0 -- NONE
6. Nebraska: 9-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 7-34
7. Purdue: 9-2-0 -- W, Rose, 14-13
8. Georgia Tech: 9-2-0 -- L, Orange, 12-27
9. Miami-FL: 8-2-1 -- W, Liberty, 14-7
10. SMU: 8-3-0 -- L, Cotton, 9-24

Note: The AP only ranked ten teams in 1966, and in a surprise move, they went BACK to the final poll being pre-bowl this season. Go figure ...

This was the year of the "Game of the Century", a 10-10 tie in East Lansing between Notre Dame and Sparty. After that tie on November 19, the Irish traveled to Los Angeles and beat the shit out of USC, 51-0. That may have swayed voters a bit, since the Irish tied the Spartans on the road without their starting QB and their starting RB.

But I digress.

We can consider five teams this year: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Alabama, UCLA and Georgia. But let's break some "ties" first.

Notre Dame versus Michigan State: They tied on Michigan State's home field, which gives a slight edge to Notre Dame. The Irish also have the SOS rating edge, 54%-49%. Notre Dame beat #7 Purdue on the road by ten points, while Michigan State beat Purdue by 21 points at home. Edge? Michigan State. Notre Dame beat Northwestern on the road by a 35-7 score, while Michigan State beat Northwestern on the road, 22-0. Draw. Notre Dame was 4-0-1 against winning teams in 1966, while Michigan State was just 2-0-1 against winning teams in 1966. The Big Ten had a down year, and three Spartan opponents (North Carolina State, Penn State and Ohio State) were a combined 14-15. So Notre Dame gets the head-to-head edge over Michigan State in 1966.

Alabama versus Georgia: Both teams went undefeated in SEC play, although Alabama was 6-0 and Georgia was 5-0. The SEC was ridiculous, once again, in uneven scheduling. Anyway, the Bulldogs have the SOS rating edge, 50%-46%. But they also have one loss: an OOC road loss by one point to #9 Miami-FL. That is hardly a blemish, all things considered. But the SEC can only have one representative in this debate, so let's look closer: Alabama had six wins over winning teams, including three wins over ranked teams (UPI #12 Mississippi [8-3], UPI #14 Tennessee [8-3], and AP #6 Nebraska). The first two were road games, and 'Bama nicked the Vols by one point. Also, Nebraska (45% SOS rating) certainly wasn't "up" for its bowl game, as they blew their perfect season in the last game of the regular season, losing by one point on the road to Oklahoma. As for Georgia, they had five wins over winning teams, including four wins over ranked teams (UPI #12 Mississippi, UPI #11 Florida [9-2], AP #8 Georgia Tech and AP #10 SMU). Plus, they had a fifth game against a ranked opponent in their close road loss to Miami-FL. Overall, the scheduling edge goes to Georgia, because they played better teams and only lost one game to a Top 10 team on the road by a point. While 'Bama's bowl win over #6 Nebraska is very good, it comes with a caveat of disinterest from the Cornhuskers. But in the end, Alabama went undefeated, and Georgia's SOS edge isn't enough to compensate for a loss.

So we have Notre Dame and Alabama alive here, with UCLA still to consider: The Bruins had a poor SOS rating at 47%, and they lost to unranked Washington (6-4) on the road by 13 points. That's not a bad loss, but combined with the reality they didn't play in a bowl game, they really have no shot at passing either the Irish or the Tide in this analysis.

So it's Notre Dame versus Alabama: yes, the Irish didn't play in a bowl game, either, but as noted, they had a superior SOS rating (54%-46%). Their only blemish is a great tie on the road to the other #1 team for most of the season. Notre Dame was 4-0-1 against winning teams; Alabama was 6-0 against winning teams. The Irish played three ranked teams all season [AP #7 Purdue, AP #2 Michigan State, and UPI #18 USC [7-4]), while Alabama also played three ranked teams (UPI #12 Mississippi [8-3], UPI #14 Tennessee [8-3], and AP #6 Nebraska). Notre Dame played a more top-heavy schedule, for sure, and overall, they had a better schedule as well. But they didn't play in a bowl game, and Alabama did. Notre Dame did beat their opponents by an average of 32 points, while Alabama only beat theirs by an average of 23 points.

In 1943, the Irish lost the McMNC because of a bad tie; in 1946, the Irish lost the McMNC because their SOS wasn't enough to overcome the lack of a bowl game (only a 3% edge over Georgia) and a tie blemish; in 1947, the Irish had a far inferior SOS rating to Michigan (48%-39%) and no bowl win on their resume; in 1949, they lost to Oklahoma because of an inferior SOS rating (52%-50%) and no bowl win.

This time, they have the edge in SOS by a significant margin, and the blemish on their record really isn't a blemish: it was as good as victory considering the circumstances and the fact Alabama played no opponent of that caliber all season long.

The lack of bowl game doesn't hurt the Irish in 1966, because the rest of their resume was finally strong enough to overcome that inequity. I realize this is two years in a row I've broken my own "rules", but rules were made to be broken on special occasions.

McMNC Revisions
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Michigan State
5. UCLA

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Washington: +1960
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Texas: =1963
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
USC: -1962
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966

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