Thursday, March 13, 2008

1953 McMNC: Michigan State Spartans

AP Top 15: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Maryland: 10-1-0 -- L, Orange, 0-7
2. Notre Dame: 9-0-1 -- None
3. Michigan State: 9-1-0 -- W, Rose, 28-20
4. Oklahoma: 9-1-1 -- W, Orange, 7-0
5. UCLA: 8-2-0 -- L, Rose, 20-28
6. Rice: 9-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 28-6
7. Illinois: 7-1-1 -- None
8. Georgia Tech: 9-2-1 -- W, Sugar, 42-19
9. Iowa: 5-3-1 -- None
10. West Virginia: 8-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 19-42
11. Texas: 7-3-0 -- None
12. Texas Tech: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 35-13
13. Alabama: 6-3-3 -- L, Cotton, 6-28
14. Army: 7-1-1 -- None
15. Wisconsin: 6-2-1 -- None

We go 15-deep this year, because Texas Tech deserves consideration.

Maryland is out; they lost their bowl game. Sucks to be them, but that's the breaks. That leaves us with another cluttered field: bowl-less Notre Dame, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech.

Let's see where it takes us ...

Texas Tech: Their SOS rating wasn't bad (50%), but they did lose to a 4-5-1 Texas A&M team at home by 13 points. That's a bad loss. They did beat 8-2 UTEP (Texas Western then?) by 21 points on the road, they beat 7-3 Oklahoma State by 14 points on the road, they beat 5-2-3 Mississippi State on the road by seven points, and they beat 5-4-1 Houston by 20 points on the road. Those are four quality road wins right there. But Texas Tech played in the Border Conference back then, and that's just not good enough. They only played two other winning teams in 1953: 6-5 Hardin-Simmons and #17 Auburn (7-3-1) in the Gator Bowl. So, they had one win over a ranked team all season, but they did win that game by 22 points. Will it be enough?

Oklahoma: They played a killer schedule in 1953, with an SOS rating of 58%. Impressive! Their only loss was #2 Notre Dame, a seven-point defeat at home. No shame there. They beat #11 Texas (7-3) by five points on the road, they beat 6-4 Colorado by seven points at home, they trounced 6-3-1 Kansas State on the road by 34 points, they beat 6-4 Missouri by seven points on the road, they beat 7-3 Oklahoma State by 35 points at home, and they beat #1 Maryland by seven points in the Orange Bowl. They played three ranked teams, beat two of them, lost closely to the third and beat four other winning teams. Heck of a schedule. BUT ... on October 3, a week after their season-opening loss to Notre Dame, the Sooners traveled to Pittsburgh and tied a 3-5-1 team, 7-7. As lame ties like this have sunk the McMNC hopes of USC and others already, you know what it's going to do to Oklahoma, don't you? Besides, they lost to Notre Dame, one of the other TUCs in this debate.

Michigan State: Sparty's SOS rating is 50%, and they have a bad loss (losing 6-0 on the road to 2-7 Purdue, though). Their wins? They beat #9 Iowa (5-3-1) by 14 points on the road, they beat 6-3 Ohio State by 15 points on the road, they beat #20 Michigan (6-3) at home by eight points, they beat 6-3-1 Marquette at home by six points, and they beat #5 UCLA (8-2) by eight points on the road in the Rose Bowl. They played an impressive schedule, but is a bad loss better than a good loss and a bad tie? Hmmmm.

Notre Dame: They played a good schedule (56% SOS rating), and at a quick glance, I'm not sure why Maryland was ranked #1 ahead of the Irish. They beat #4 Oklahoma (9-1-1) on the road by seven points, they beat #8 Georgia Tech (9-2-1) by 18 points at home, they beat 4-3-2 Navy by 31 points at home, they tied #9 Iowa (5-3-1) at home, and they beat 6-3-1 USC on the road by 34 points. That's a nice slate, but as noted before, they didn't play a bowl game. Maryland played only one ranked team all year (see below), and the Irish played three (although they tied Iowa). Was that tie enough to sway voters? Obviously.

Anyway ...

So Texas Tech gets #4 slot, because of schedule weakness. Michigan State gets the nod over Oklahoma, simply because one loss is still better than one loss and one tie. And both the bowl wins were equally impressive, for all intents and purposes. UCLA was one point away from perfection heading into the Rose Bowl (losing to Stanford by a point in Palo Alto), while Maryland played only one ranked team all season (#13 Alabama, at 6-3-3) before losing to Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. In fact, Sparty's bowl win was probably more impressive, considering UCLA had played two ranked teams (#15 Wisconsin and #19 Stanford) and was playing a "home" game in Greater Los Angeles.

So it comes down to Michigan State or Notre Dame.

The Irish beat Purdue on the road by 30 points, when Michigan State couldn't even score against the Boilermakers in West Lafayette. Hmmmm. But Michigan State beat Iowa on the road by 14 points, while the Irish could merely tie the Hawkeyes AT HOME in South Bend. Edge? Notre Dame, but, in truth not by much. Both teams played Purdue on the road, and Notre Dame gets a huge edge there. But Sparty beat Iowa on the road by double digits, while the Irish couldn't beat them at home. That's a plus for MSU, but overall, it's still an edge to Notre Dame. The Irish also get the SOS edge 56-50, but it's not like MSU played a poor schedule. Sparty, too, played three ranked teams, going 3-0 against them. Notre Dame went 2-0-1 against their ranked opponents. The best Irish win? The road win over #4 Oklahoma by seven points; the best MSU win was over #5 UCLA on the road by eight points. That is a wash.

I'm guessing Notre Dame got the edge in the AP poll, because of Johnny Lattner. He won the Heisman Trophy in a very close vote (1850-1794) over Paul Giel of Minnesota. Just for reference, Bo Jackson beat Chuck Long (1509-1464) by slightly less. Perhaps Minnesota's 4-4-1 season is why Giel didn't win the award, and if that's the case, it explains Notre Dame's AP love over Sparty (see TCU, 1938).

Notre Dame has an edge on Sparty, due to the common opponents' tie-versus-loss exchange noted above. But as I have been consistent all along, I have to consider the bowl game. Notre Dame sat at home, while every other team in the Top 6 played a bowl game. Maryland put its perfect season on the line, and it cost them the McMNC. What did Notre Dame put on the line? Nothing. They took their Heisman Trophy and went home.

I know it's not the kids' fault, for Notre Dame chose not to participate in bowl games back then (heck, they even refused a bid in recent years with a winning record, so it's a "choice" of theirs that continues today). But it's been MY rule here since Day One, and as noted, the Irish are going to get plenty of McMNC love down the line. But this year, in perhaps the closest call yet, goes to Sparty, because of the bowl win and the removal of the Heisman Trophy winner "glow" to the decision (see TCU vs. Tennessee in 1938).

And maybe it's poetic justice since Michigan State lost out on the McMNC in 1951 and 1952 due to the lack of a bowl game win.

Take heart, Domers: your poetic justice is going to come a-plenty.

McMNC Revisions
1. Michigan State
2. Notre Dame
3. Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech
5. Maryland

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949

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