Thursday, March 27, 2008

1957 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Auburn: 10-0-0 -- NONE
2. Ohio State: 9-1-0 -- W, Rose, 10-7
3. Michigan State: 8-1-0 -- NONE
4. Oklahoma: 10-1-0 -- W, Orange, 48-21
5. Navy: 9-1-1 -- W, Cotton, 20-7
6. Iowa: 7-1-1 -- NONE
7. Mississippi: 9-1-1 -- W, Sugar, 39-7
8. Rice: 7-4-0 -- L, Cotton, 7-20
9. Texas A&M: 8-3-0 -- L, Gator, 0-3
10. Notre Dame: 7-3-0 -- NONE

Some notes here: Arizona State, coached by Dan Devine, went 10-0-0 but didn't play in a bowl game. They finished #12 in the country with a 38% SOS rating. So they get props, but they are not a part of this discussion. Also, A&M started off 8-0 before losing its last three games by a combined SIX points. That sucks for them and Bear Bryant. Finally, Auburn was on probation, so their #1 ranking and AP MNC goes out the window here. Sorry, no cheaters win the McMNC.

This leaves us with Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Mississippi as teams with legit claims to the McMNC. We can eliminate Sparty right away, because like 1955, they didn't win their conference. A seven-point home loss to 5-4 Purdue costs the Spartans big time, but not really as Ohio State would have trumped them anyway as a Big Ten squad with a bowl win AND a better SOS rating (see below).

Mississippi is an interesting consideration: they finished second in the SEC to Auburn, but we know Auburn cheated. The two teams didn't play each other, and they were the only two SEC teams with fewer than two conference losses (neither Auburn or Mississippi lost in conference play, although the Rebels did have a tie -- which cost them first place). But with Auburn on probation, we have a dilemma: do we count Auburn's SEC "title" even though they were on probation? If they're not eligible for my McMNC award, are they eligible for the SEC title? I just don't know.

Ole Miss has a strong case, so let's deal with that first: with an SOS rating of 53%, they have wins over 5-3-2 Vanderbilt (a 28-0 road shutout), 5-4-1 Houston, #13 Tennessee (14-7 road win over the 8-3 Vols), and #11 Texas in the Sugar Bowl (the 'Horns were 6-4-1 overall). They lost at home to 6-4 Arkansas (then in the SWC, of course) by six points, and they tied #14 Mississippi State (6-2-1) on the road. Overall, an impressive slate, but we still have to resolve that earlier question. Stay tuned ...

Oklahoma did play a better schedule in 1958, so they are in the conversation. In fact, they played a decent schedule (51% SOS rating). They beat #11 Texas on the road by 14 points, they shut out 5-4-1 Kansas by 47 points at home, they beat 6-3-1 Colorado at home, they beat 5-4-1 Missouri on the road by 25 points, they beat 6-3-1 Oklahoma State by 47 points at home. And they pounded #16 Duke (6-3-2) in the Orange Bowl. Their one loss, famously, was a 7-0 home loss to #10 Notre Dame, ending that 57-game winning streak they'd been building since 1953. Overall, an impressive resume.

Finally, we have Ohio State: the Buckeyes lost their first game at home to 6-4-1 TCU by four points, and then ran the table. They beat #19 Wisconsin (6-3) by three points on the road, they beat 5-4 Purdue at home, they beat #6 Iowa at home, they beat 5-3-1 Michigan on the road by 17 points, and they beat 7-4 Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Overall, though, their SOS rating (48%) falls behind Oklahoma and Mississippi.

So, what to do? Ohio State has the weakest SOS and the weakest bowl win. They lose out there, and that eliminates them since all the teams have one loss. Ironic, but TCU and Arkansas were both 2-4 in the SWC, so those are hurtful losses, considering Oklahoma lost only to a Top 10 team. Oklahoma wins almost all comparisons here, save the SOS rating -- but even that was relatively close to Mississippi's rating (53-51). The bowl victories are relatively close, too, with Mississippi's win over Texas perhaps slightly better than the Sooners' win over Duke.

So with the Buckeyes out, it's between Oklahoma and Mississippi. So that second-place question becomes important. Or does it? Oklahoma's biggest blemish is the smallest blemish in this comparison, and since the SOS ratings and bowl wins are close enough, the Sooners' loss is much better than the Rebels' loss AND tie.

This year, Oklahoma earned it.

McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Mississippi
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan State
5. Arizona State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Iowa: +1956
Georgia Tech: +1952
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Georgia: +1946
Alabama: +1945
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937
Texas A&M: =1939
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Auburn: -1957
Army: -1944, -1945
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949

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