AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Miami-FL: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 37-14
2. Oregon: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 38-16
3. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 56-21
4. Tennessee: 11-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 45-17
5. Texas: 11-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 47-43
6. Oklahoma: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 10-3
7. Louisiana State: 10-3-0 -- W, Sugar, 47-34
8. Nebraska: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 14-37
9. Colorado: 10-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 16-38
10. Washington State: 10-2-0 -- W, Sun, 33-27
Yet another fuck-up by the BCS. Sensing a theme here?
The Hurricanes deserved their spot in the title game, based on an unblemished record and a 57% SOS rating. They beat AP #15 Florida State by 22 points on the road, they beat AP #21 Boston College on the road by 11 points, they beat AP #14 Syracuse by 59 points at home (shutout), they beat AP #19 Washington at home by 58 points, they beat AP #18 Virginia Tech by two points on the road, and they beat #8 Nebraska in the Rose Bowl by 23 points. Six wins over ranked teams is impressive, although no team ranked higher than eighth by the end of the season.
So why was Nebraska chosen, as a non-conference winner, over Oregon? The Ducks were ranked higher and had won their conference, while the Huskers had a 26-point loss in their last regular season game. The Ducks' one loss was at home by seven points to AP #16 Stanford, by the way. Nebraska is ineligible for the McMNC, of course, since they didn't win their conference. Do the Ducks have enough to overcome Miami's unblemished record?
Oregon had a 53% SOS rating, with wins over #10 Washington State on the road by seven points and #9 Colorado by 22 points in the Fiesta Bowl. They didn't play a tough schedule, obviously. Transitive score fun works here, though: Oregon beat Colorado by 22 points, Colorado beat Nebraska by 26 points, and Miami only beat Nebraska by 23 points.
But like 1999 and 2000, there is just no way to tell what might have happened in a head-to-head matchup between the Hurricanes and the Ducks. The BCS fucked it up AGAIN: on paper, the Ducks don't have enough to overcome the Hurricanes' perfect record.
What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 2001.
McMNC Revisions
1. Miami-FL
2. Oregon
3. Nebraska
4. Washington State
5. Tennessee
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Saturday, August 16, 2008
2000 McMNC: Oklahoma Sooners
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Oklahoma: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 13-2
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 37-20
3. Washington: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 24-14
4. Oregon State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 41-9
5. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 2-13
6. Virginia Tech: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 41-20
7. Oregon: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 35-30
8. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Alamo, 66-17
9. Kansas State: 11-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-21
10. Florida: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-37
It's easy in retrospect to say FSU didn't belong in the title game: they got shutout on offense, after scoring 42.4 points per game in the regular season. Was Oklahoma's defense THAT good? Or was Florida State that overrated?
There were five one-loss teams to choose from in determining Oklahoma's foe in the Orange Bowl: Miami-FL, Washington, Oregon State, Florida State and Virginia Tech. This is easy to resolve, however.
Virginia Tech is out, because Miami-FL won both the Big East and their head-to-head matchup. Yet, Miami is out, because they lost to Washington head-to-head. And Florida State is out, because they lost to Miami head-to-head. And Oregon State is out, because they lost to Washington head-to-head.
Everyone got that? For all the media bluster generated by Miami's whining in 2000 that they deserved the BCS slot over Florida State because they beat the Seminoles, very few seemed to care that Miami had lost to Washington -- and it was truly the Huskies who deserved that #2 BCS position.
Seriously, this was a major fuck-up of epic proportions, and basically no one noticed.
For the record, Washington's only loss was by seven points on the road to #7 Oregon. It's hardly shameful. The Huskies beat #2 Miami by five points at home, they beat #4 Oregon State by three points at home, and AP #13 Purdue in the Rose Bowl by ten points. It's not an overwhelming resume, but beating two Top 5 teams is very strong nonetheless. They had a 56% SOS rating overall. Plus, they had that H2H edge over every other TUC, as noted above. And that has always counted for something with the McMNC.
Oklahoma had a 55% SOS rating, and they beat #12 Texas by 49 points, #9 Kansas State by ten points on the road, #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, #9 Kansas State by three points in the Big XII title game, and #5 Florida State by 11 points in the Orange Bowl. It's a strong resume, of course, with five wins over ranked teams. But they don't have a singular win impressive as Washington's two best wins.
The SOS ratings are comparable enough, of course. Common opponents? None, of course. There is the transitive power, however: Oklahoma beat Florida State by 11, while Washington beat Miami by five, and Miami beat Florida State by three points. Oklahoma has a much larger MOV (22.1 to 9.8), too.
But like 1999, there is just no way to tell what might have happened in a head-to-head matchup between the Sooners and the Huskies. The BCS fucked it up AGAIN this year: like last year, on paper, the Huskies don't have enough to overcome the Sooners' perfect record.
What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 2000.
McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Washington
3. Miami-FL
4. Oregon State
5. Virginia Tech
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Oklahoma: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 13-2
2. Miami-FL: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 37-20
3. Washington: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 24-14
4. Oregon State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 41-9
5. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 2-13
6. Virginia Tech: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 41-20
7. Oregon: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 35-30
8. Nebraska: 10-2-0 -- W, Alamo, 66-17
9. Kansas State: 11-3-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-21
10. Florida: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-37
It's easy in retrospect to say FSU didn't belong in the title game: they got shutout on offense, after scoring 42.4 points per game in the regular season. Was Oklahoma's defense THAT good? Or was Florida State that overrated?
There were five one-loss teams to choose from in determining Oklahoma's foe in the Orange Bowl: Miami-FL, Washington, Oregon State, Florida State and Virginia Tech. This is easy to resolve, however.
Virginia Tech is out, because Miami-FL won both the Big East and their head-to-head matchup. Yet, Miami is out, because they lost to Washington head-to-head. And Florida State is out, because they lost to Miami head-to-head. And Oregon State is out, because they lost to Washington head-to-head.
Everyone got that? For all the media bluster generated by Miami's whining in 2000 that they deserved the BCS slot over Florida State because they beat the Seminoles, very few seemed to care that Miami had lost to Washington -- and it was truly the Huskies who deserved that #2 BCS position.
Seriously, this was a major fuck-up of epic proportions, and basically no one noticed.
For the record, Washington's only loss was by seven points on the road to #7 Oregon. It's hardly shameful. The Huskies beat #2 Miami by five points at home, they beat #4 Oregon State by three points at home, and AP #13 Purdue in the Rose Bowl by ten points. It's not an overwhelming resume, but beating two Top 5 teams is very strong nonetheless. They had a 56% SOS rating overall. Plus, they had that H2H edge over every other TUC, as noted above. And that has always counted for something with the McMNC.
Oklahoma had a 55% SOS rating, and they beat #12 Texas by 49 points, #9 Kansas State by ten points on the road, #8 Nebraska by 17 points at home, #9 Kansas State by three points in the Big XII title game, and #5 Florida State by 11 points in the Orange Bowl. It's a strong resume, of course, with five wins over ranked teams. But they don't have a singular win impressive as Washington's two best wins.
The SOS ratings are comparable enough, of course. Common opponents? None, of course. There is the transitive power, however: Oklahoma beat Florida State by 11, while Washington beat Miami by five, and Miami beat Florida State by three points. Oklahoma has a much larger MOV (22.1 to 9.8), too.
But like 1999, there is just no way to tell what might have happened in a head-to-head matchup between the Sooners and the Huskies. The BCS fucked it up AGAIN this year: like last year, on paper, the Huskies don't have enough to overcome the Sooners' perfect record.
What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 2000.
McMNC Revisions
1. Oklahoma
2. Washington
3. Miami-FL
4. Oregon State
5. Virginia Tech
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Friday, August 15, 2008
1999 McMNC: Florida State Seminoles
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Florida State: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 46-29
2. Virginia Tech: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 29-46
3. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-21
4. Wisconsin: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 17-9
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 35-34
6. Kansas State: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 24-20
7. Michigan State: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 37-34
8. Alabama: 10-3-0 -- L, Orange, 34-35
9. Tennessee: 9-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 21-31
10. Marshall: 13-0-0 -- W, Motor City, 21-3
This BCS year had the only two undefeated teams in the title game, so it appears on the surface to be a verification of the system's true intent.
FSU had a 58% SOS rating, with wins over AP #20 Georgia Tech, AP #15 Miami and AP #12 Florida. They had seven wins over winning teams and two wins over .500 teams. So they only had two wins over losing teams (3-8 Duke, 5-6 Maryland) going into the Sugar Bowl.
Virginia Tech had a 53% SOS rating, with a win over AP #15 Miami. That was the Hokies' only win over a ranked team in 1999. They did beat 8-4 James Madison (47-0), 7-5 Virginia (31-7), 7-5 Syracuse (62-0), and 8-4 Boston College (38-14). They also had wins over 1-10 Rutgers and 2-9 Temple. They played a weak schedule, and they were exposed in the title game against FSU.
Could another team have played FSU more evenly? The candidates are minimal: Nebraska and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't play an AP-ranked team all season, of course, and their SOS rating (44%) doesn't cut it.
Which leaves us with Nebraska. Were the Cornhuskers more deserving of a spot in the BCS title game than Virginia Tech? Their one loss was a four-point road setback against AP #21 Texas (9-5), certainly far from shameful. The Huskers had wins over AP #14 Southern Mississippi, AP #23 Texas A&M, AP #6 Kansas State, and AP #21 Texas (in the Big XII title game rematch, 22-6). Their SOS rating was 55%, which was better than Virginia Tech's number.
Here's one other thought to consider: The Hokies' regular season SOS rating was only 48%, while Nebraska's regular season SOS rating was 53%. Considering the fact Nebraska played five games against ranked opponents while the Hokies only played one game, it's a shame Virginia Tech was voted so readily into the second BCS slot for the Sugar Bowl over the Huskers. This deserved more scrutiny.
For argument's sake, since the Hokies lost, let's assume it should have been the Huskers.
Which leaves us with a final question: FSU or Nebraska? Of course, we'll never know how Nebraska might have fared in the Sugar Bowl against FSU, so all we're left with is the numbers: unblemished FSU with a 58% SOS rating against one-loss Nebraska with a 55% SOS rating.
They had no common opponents, although there are many transitive score possibilities. For example, FSU beat Florida by seven points on the road, and Florida beat beat Tennessee by two points at home. Nebraska beat Tennessee by ten points in the Fiesta Bowl. What can this tell us? Nothing, sadly enough. Both teams outscored their opponents on average by about 21 points.
The BCS fucked it up this year: it might have been 11-0 Florida State against 11-1 Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl, but on paper, the Cornhuskers don't have enough to overcome the Seminoles' perfect record.
What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 1999.
McMNC Revisions
1. Florida State
2. Nebraska
3. Virginia Tech
4. Kansas State
5. Marshall
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Florida State: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 46-29
2. Virginia Tech: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 29-46
3. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-21
4. Wisconsin: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 17-9
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 35-34
6. Kansas State: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 24-20
7. Michigan State: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 37-34
8. Alabama: 10-3-0 -- L, Orange, 34-35
9. Tennessee: 9-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 21-31
10. Marshall: 13-0-0 -- W, Motor City, 21-3
This BCS year had the only two undefeated teams in the title game, so it appears on the surface to be a verification of the system's true intent.
FSU had a 58% SOS rating, with wins over AP #20 Georgia Tech, AP #15 Miami and AP #12 Florida. They had seven wins over winning teams and two wins over .500 teams. So they only had two wins over losing teams (3-8 Duke, 5-6 Maryland) going into the Sugar Bowl.
Virginia Tech had a 53% SOS rating, with a win over AP #15 Miami. That was the Hokies' only win over a ranked team in 1999. They did beat 8-4 James Madison (47-0), 7-5 Virginia (31-7), 7-5 Syracuse (62-0), and 8-4 Boston College (38-14). They also had wins over 1-10 Rutgers and 2-9 Temple. They played a weak schedule, and they were exposed in the title game against FSU.
Could another team have played FSU more evenly? The candidates are minimal: Nebraska and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't play an AP-ranked team all season, of course, and their SOS rating (44%) doesn't cut it.
Which leaves us with Nebraska. Were the Cornhuskers more deserving of a spot in the BCS title game than Virginia Tech? Their one loss was a four-point road setback against AP #21 Texas (9-5), certainly far from shameful. The Huskers had wins over AP #14 Southern Mississippi, AP #23 Texas A&M, AP #6 Kansas State, and AP #21 Texas (in the Big XII title game rematch, 22-6). Their SOS rating was 55%, which was better than Virginia Tech's number.
Here's one other thought to consider: The Hokies' regular season SOS rating was only 48%, while Nebraska's regular season SOS rating was 53%. Considering the fact Nebraska played five games against ranked opponents while the Hokies only played one game, it's a shame Virginia Tech was voted so readily into the second BCS slot for the Sugar Bowl over the Huskers. This deserved more scrutiny.
For argument's sake, since the Hokies lost, let's assume it should have been the Huskers.
Which leaves us with a final question: FSU or Nebraska? Of course, we'll never know how Nebraska might have fared in the Sugar Bowl against FSU, so all we're left with is the numbers: unblemished FSU with a 58% SOS rating against one-loss Nebraska with a 55% SOS rating.
They had no common opponents, although there are many transitive score possibilities. For example, FSU beat Florida by seven points on the road, and Florida beat beat Tennessee by two points at home. Nebraska beat Tennessee by ten points in the Fiesta Bowl. What can this tell us? Nothing, sadly enough. Both teams outscored their opponents on average by about 21 points.
The BCS fucked it up this year: it might have been 11-0 Florida State against 11-1 Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl, but on paper, the Cornhuskers don't have enough to overcome the Seminoles' perfect record.
What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 1999.
McMNC Revisions
1. Florida State
2. Nebraska
3. Virginia Tech
4. Kansas State
5. Marshall
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Thursday, August 14, 2008
1998 McMNC: Tennessee Volunteers
Okay, so we've entered a new era here, and it's not as easy as anointing the BCS champ as my McMNC. Why? Because quite often, we're not even sure the right two teams were invited to the title game, so it's very possible for a team to win the BCS title game and not win the McMNC. It's also very possible for a team that didn't get invited to the BCS title game to have a better resume than a team that did get to -- and win -- the BCS title game.
And I'm not just thinking of 2003, either. So without further adieu, here we go ...
AP Top 13: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Tennessee: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 23-16
2. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-14
3. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 16-23
4. Arizona: 12-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 23-20
5. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 31-10
6. Wisconsin: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 38-31
7. Tulane: 12-0-0 -- W, Liberty, 41-27
8. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 31-38
9. Georgia Tech: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-28
10. Kansas State: 11-2-0 -- L, Alamo, 34-37
11. Texas A&M: 11-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-24
12. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- W, Citrus, 45-31
13. Air Force: 12-1-0 -- W, O'ahu, 45-25
Tennessee, as the only unbeaten/untied team from a BCS/major conference, probably deserved its spot in the title game. But more on that later. The question is why Florida State was chosen as the second team when Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane, UCLA, Kansas State and Air Force all had excellent seasons, too.
Of course, UCLA and K-State went on to lose their bowls -- and their claim to the McMNC, of course. But these are interesting cases to examine. First, UCLA: The Bruins had a 20-game winning streak on the line when they played a re-scheduled game at Miami-FL on December 5. This was a hurricane-delayed game, and the Bruins had wrapped their "regular" season with a 34-17 win over unranked 8-5 USC on November 21. However, they were forced to travel to Florida two weeks later to play this game against Miami which had originally been scheduled for September. With a BCS title game slot on the line, the Bruins lost 49-45 in a classic trap game. With such disappointment, it's a surprise they even managed to play a respectable game in the Rose Bowl. Likewise, K-State was 11-0 with only the Big XII title game between them and the BCS title game slot. Texas A&M upset the Wildcats in overtime, and suddenly, K-State is in the friggin' Alamo Bowl against an unranked Big Ten also-ran. Motivation? Gone.
This began the interesting BCS shuffle every year, where teams on the precipice would lose, thus opening the door for other deserving (or non-deserving) teams. The first year, there were three undefeated teams on the last day of the regular season, and only Tennessee survived. Thus? Chaos ensued for BCS title slot #2.
The Bobby Bowden lovefest reigned supreme in 1998. But why?
With a 17-point road loss to an unranked team (7-5 North Carolina State), the Seminoles never should have been in contention for a BCS spot. They did have a strong resume: 62% SOS rating and five wins over AP Top 20 teams by an average of 16+ points per game. Yet they proved their unworthiness with their lackluster showing in the Fiesta Bowl. Could another team have done better against the Vols?
Perhaps. But let's start with Tennessee to see what we're dealing with here. The Vols had a 54% SOS rating, which is good. They beat AP #25 Syracuse (8-4) by one point on the road, they beat #5 Florida by three points at home, they beat AP #14 Georgia (9-3) by 19 points on the road, and they beat AP #16 Arkansas (9-3) by four points at home (remember this game? Both teams were unbeaten, and the Hogs gave the game away ...). Tennessee also beat #3 FSU in the Fiesta Bowl, of course. With those five wins, you think their SOS would be higher, but the Vols also played 3-8 Houston, 3-8 Auburn (scratching out an eight-point road win), 1-10 South Carolina, 4-7 UAB, and 2-9 Vanderbilt.
So who can challenge The Philip Fulmers in 1998? Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane and Air Force. But actually, Arizona cannot challenge, since they didn't win the Pac-10. In fact, they lost to UCLA at home by 24 points, and they only had a 46% SOS rating, anyway. Another wildcat bites the dust ...
Ohio State and Wisconsin technically tied for the Big Ten title. They didn't play each other, and the Badgers got the Rose Bowl bid since Ohio State had just been there in 1996. Both are eligible for the McMNC: can they challenge?
The Badgers' 49% SOS says no. With an OOC schedule of San Diego State, UNLV and Ohio U., Wisconsin took the easy route to 11 wins. They did beat AP #24 Purdue (9-4) by seven points at home, AP #17 Penn State (9-3) at home by 21 points, and unmotivated #8 UCLA in the Rose Bowl by seven points. And, of course, they lost to #12 Michigan by 17 points on the road. Double-digit losses, even to ranked teams are not good, but the poor SOS rating and lack of enough wins over ranked teams dooms the Badgers, anyway. They certainly didn't belong in the BCS title game over FSU.
The Buckeyes? They had a 54% SOS rating, which was equal to the Vols' number but behind Florida State's number. Their one loss was that inexplicable home collapse against unranked 6-6 Sparty, where they blew a 15-point lead in the second half to lose by four points. Otherwise, Ohio State beat AP #21 Missouri (8-4) by 21 points at home, they beat #17 Penn State by 19 points at home, #12 Michigan by 15 points at home, and they beat #11 Texas A&M by 11 points in the Sugar Bowl. They have a slightly better resume than Wisconsin, but FSU was still the right choice over the Buckeyes for the BCS title game.
Tulane went undefeated/untied with a 39% SOS rating. They didn't beat a ranked team all year. Not much else to say here, except "Great season, boys!" -- you have no shot at the McMNC. Air Force? They had a 42% SOS rating, and their one loss was by a point, on the road, to unranked 7-5 TCU. They fall below Tulane on this scale.
So in the end, Tennessee verifies its BCS title for two reasons: 1) They were the best team from start-to-finish all year; 2) They beat the next-best team (FSU) in the BCS title game to leave no doubt.
McMNC Revisions
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Tulane
5. Air Force
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
And I'm not just thinking of 2003, either. So without further adieu, here we go ...
AP Top 13: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Tennessee: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 23-16
2. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-14
3. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 16-23
4. Arizona: 12-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 23-20
5. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 31-10
6. Wisconsin: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 38-31
7. Tulane: 12-0-0 -- W, Liberty, 41-27
8. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 31-38
9. Georgia Tech: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-28
10. Kansas State: 11-2-0 -- L, Alamo, 34-37
11. Texas A&M: 11-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-24
12. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- W, Citrus, 45-31
13. Air Force: 12-1-0 -- W, O'ahu, 45-25
Tennessee, as the only unbeaten/untied team from a BCS/major conference, probably deserved its spot in the title game. But more on that later. The question is why Florida State was chosen as the second team when Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane, UCLA, Kansas State and Air Force all had excellent seasons, too.
Of course, UCLA and K-State went on to lose their bowls -- and their claim to the McMNC, of course. But these are interesting cases to examine. First, UCLA: The Bruins had a 20-game winning streak on the line when they played a re-scheduled game at Miami-FL on December 5. This was a hurricane-delayed game, and the Bruins had wrapped their "regular" season with a 34-17 win over unranked 8-5 USC on November 21. However, they were forced to travel to Florida two weeks later to play this game against Miami which had originally been scheduled for September. With a BCS title game slot on the line, the Bruins lost 49-45 in a classic trap game. With such disappointment, it's a surprise they even managed to play a respectable game in the Rose Bowl. Likewise, K-State was 11-0 with only the Big XII title game between them and the BCS title game slot. Texas A&M upset the Wildcats in overtime, and suddenly, K-State is in the friggin' Alamo Bowl against an unranked Big Ten also-ran. Motivation? Gone.
This began the interesting BCS shuffle every year, where teams on the precipice would lose, thus opening the door for other deserving (or non-deserving) teams. The first year, there were three undefeated teams on the last day of the regular season, and only Tennessee survived. Thus? Chaos ensued for BCS title slot #2.
The Bobby Bowden lovefest reigned supreme in 1998. But why?
With a 17-point road loss to an unranked team (7-5 North Carolina State), the Seminoles never should have been in contention for a BCS spot. They did have a strong resume: 62% SOS rating and five wins over AP Top 20 teams by an average of 16+ points per game. Yet they proved their unworthiness with their lackluster showing in the Fiesta Bowl. Could another team have done better against the Vols?
Perhaps. But let's start with Tennessee to see what we're dealing with here. The Vols had a 54% SOS rating, which is good. They beat AP #25 Syracuse (8-4) by one point on the road, they beat #5 Florida by three points at home, they beat AP #14 Georgia (9-3) by 19 points on the road, and they beat AP #16 Arkansas (9-3) by four points at home (remember this game? Both teams were unbeaten, and the Hogs gave the game away ...). Tennessee also beat #3 FSU in the Fiesta Bowl, of course. With those five wins, you think their SOS would be higher, but the Vols also played 3-8 Houston, 3-8 Auburn (scratching out an eight-point road win), 1-10 South Carolina, 4-7 UAB, and 2-9 Vanderbilt.
So who can challenge The Philip Fulmers in 1998? Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane and Air Force. But actually, Arizona cannot challenge, since they didn't win the Pac-10. In fact, they lost to UCLA at home by 24 points, and they only had a 46% SOS rating, anyway. Another wildcat bites the dust ...
Ohio State and Wisconsin technically tied for the Big Ten title. They didn't play each other, and the Badgers got the Rose Bowl bid since Ohio State had just been there in 1996. Both are eligible for the McMNC: can they challenge?
The Badgers' 49% SOS says no. With an OOC schedule of San Diego State, UNLV and Ohio U., Wisconsin took the easy route to 11 wins. They did beat AP #24 Purdue (9-4) by seven points at home, AP #17 Penn State (9-3) at home by 21 points, and unmotivated #8 UCLA in the Rose Bowl by seven points. And, of course, they lost to #12 Michigan by 17 points on the road. Double-digit losses, even to ranked teams are not good, but the poor SOS rating and lack of enough wins over ranked teams dooms the Badgers, anyway. They certainly didn't belong in the BCS title game over FSU.
The Buckeyes? They had a 54% SOS rating, which was equal to the Vols' number but behind Florida State's number. Their one loss was that inexplicable home collapse against unranked 6-6 Sparty, where they blew a 15-point lead in the second half to lose by four points. Otherwise, Ohio State beat AP #21 Missouri (8-4) by 21 points at home, they beat #17 Penn State by 19 points at home, #12 Michigan by 15 points at home, and they beat #11 Texas A&M by 11 points in the Sugar Bowl. They have a slightly better resume than Wisconsin, but FSU was still the right choice over the Buckeyes for the BCS title game.
Tulane went undefeated/untied with a 39% SOS rating. They didn't beat a ranked team all year. Not much else to say here, except "Great season, boys!" -- you have no shot at the McMNC. Air Force? They had a 42% SOS rating, and their one loss was by a point, on the road, to unranked 7-5 TCU. They fall below Tulane on this scale.
So in the end, Tennessee verifies its BCS title for two reasons: 1) They were the best team from start-to-finish all year; 2) They beat the next-best team (FSU) in the BCS title game to leave no doubt.
McMNC Revisions
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Tulane
5. Air Force
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Monday, August 11, 2008
1997 McMNC: Nebraska Cornhuskers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Michigan: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 21-16
2. Nebraska: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 42-17
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 31-14
4. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 21-6
5. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 29-23
6. North Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 42-3
7. Tennessee: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-42
8. Kansas State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-18
9. Washington State: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 16-21
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- W, Outback, 33-6
Three teams under consideration this year: Michigan, Nebraska and Florida State. For the second year in a row, FSU went into their final regular season game undefeated. This year, Florida beat them by three in the Swamp. It comes down to FSU's SOS rating (57%) to keep them in this discussion -- especially because they beat Ohio State in their bowl game by more points (17) than Michigan beat them in a home game (6).
So let's start with the Seminoles: they beat unranked 6-5 USC on the road by seven points to start the season, they beat they beat unranked 7-5 Clemson on the road by seven points, they beat AP #25 Georgia Tech (7-5) in a 38-0 shutout at home, they beat unranked 7-4 Virginia by 26 points on the road, they beat unranked 6-5 North Carolina State by 13 points at home, they beat #6 North Carolina by 17 points on the road, and they beat AP #12 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. Losing to #4 by three points on the road is the only blemish, but it will depend on the SOS ratings for Nebraska and Michigan. Beating only three ranked teams, however, will hurt the Seminoles.
Nebraska has an SOS rating of 50%, which is passable. Perhaps what we all remember about the Huskers in 1997 is this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0FnFFjp1Ns. But Nebraska beat AP #18 Washington (8-4) by 13 points on the road, they beat #8 Kansas State (11-1) by 30 points at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas Tech at home in a 29-0 whitewashing, they beat AP #23 Missouri (7-5) by seven points on the road, they beat AP #20 Texas A&M (9-4)by 39 points in the Big XII title game, and they beat #7 Tennessee by 25 points in the Orange Bowl. Not quite as impressive as the 1995 team, but very good nonetheless. When you beat five ranked teams by an average of 22 points each, you're doing something right. They beat six winning teams overall on the year.
Last but not least, Michigan returned to prominence with a 52% SOS rating. The Wolverines beat unranked 7-6 Notre Dame by seven points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Iowa at home by four points, they beat unranked 7-5 Michigan State by 16 points on the road, they beat AP #16 Penn State (9-3) on the road by 26 points, they beat unranked 8-5 Wisconsin on the road by ten points, they beat AP #12 Ohio State (10-3) home by six points, and they beat #9 Washington State in the Rose Bowl by five points. They beat three ranked teams on the season by an average of 12 points each. They beat seven winning teams in 1997.
Overall, Florida State's SOS isn't enough to overcome their one loss. They needed to be above 60% to have a shot, basically.
So, of course, it's Michigan versus Nebraska. Their game results against ranked teams are almost virtual opposites: Nebraska pounded every ranked team they played but one, while Michigan squeaked by every ranked team they played but one. But Nebraska played more ranked teams, and their bowl win was significantly more impressive.
Michigan has the SOS edge, but it's primarily based on those unranked teams above, while the Cornhuskers played a more top-heavy schedule. What hurts Nebraska's SOS are games against 2-9 Akron, 2-9 Baylor and 1-10 Iowa State. Dragging down the Wolverine SOS are 2-9 Baylor, 2-9 Indiana and 3-9 Minnesota. Eliminate these dwellers, and the SOS ratings are relatively even.
Common opponents helps us here, too, perhaps? Both teams played Colorado and Baylor: Nebraska beat Baylor on the road by 28 and Colorado on the road by three points, while Michigan beat the Bears by 35 points at home and the Buffaloes by 24 points at home. The Wolverines get an edge here, although beating Colorado in Boulder in late November is a tougher challenge than beating them in Ann Arbor in September.
In the end, Nebraska is going to win this comparison for two reasons: 1) They beat better opponents by bigger margins. In fact, they beat 13 teams by an average of 30.2 points per game in 1997, while Michigan beat 12 teams by an average of 17.3 points per game. Considering their SOS ratings were so comparable, this is a distinct edge for the Huskers when you consider how they dominated ranked teams while Michigan merely scraped by ranked teams; 2) With everything on the line in their bowl games, the Huskers beat the one-loss, SEC-champion Volunteers (then-#3) by 25 points in a game that was never close, while the Wolverines beat the one-loss, Pac-10 champions (then-#7) by five points in a game that went down to the wire and ended on a controversial clock judgment (in favor of the Wolverines).
Bottom line? The Huskers beat a better team more convincingly when it mattered most.
McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Kansas State
5. North Carolina
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Michigan: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 21-16
2. Nebraska: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 42-17
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 31-14
4. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 21-6
5. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 29-23
6. North Carolina: 11-1-0 -- W, Gator, 42-3
7. Tennessee: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-42
8. Kansas State: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-18
9. Washington State: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 16-21
10. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- W, Outback, 33-6
Three teams under consideration this year: Michigan, Nebraska and Florida State. For the second year in a row, FSU went into their final regular season game undefeated. This year, Florida beat them by three in the Swamp. It comes down to FSU's SOS rating (57%) to keep them in this discussion -- especially because they beat Ohio State in their bowl game by more points (17) than Michigan beat them in a home game (6).
So let's start with the Seminoles: they beat unranked 6-5 USC on the road by seven points to start the season, they beat they beat unranked 7-5 Clemson on the road by seven points, they beat AP #25 Georgia Tech (7-5) in a 38-0 shutout at home, they beat unranked 7-4 Virginia by 26 points on the road, they beat unranked 6-5 North Carolina State by 13 points at home, they beat #6 North Carolina by 17 points on the road, and they beat AP #12 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. Losing to #4 by three points on the road is the only blemish, but it will depend on the SOS ratings for Nebraska and Michigan. Beating only three ranked teams, however, will hurt the Seminoles.
Nebraska has an SOS rating of 50%, which is passable. Perhaps what we all remember about the Huskers in 1997 is this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0FnFFjp1Ns. But Nebraska beat AP #18 Washington (8-4) by 13 points on the road, they beat #8 Kansas State (11-1) by 30 points at home, they beat unranked 6-5 Texas Tech at home in a 29-0 whitewashing, they beat AP #23 Missouri (7-5) by seven points on the road, they beat AP #20 Texas A&M (9-4)by 39 points in the Big XII title game, and they beat #7 Tennessee by 25 points in the Orange Bowl. Not quite as impressive as the 1995 team, but very good nonetheless. When you beat five ranked teams by an average of 22 points each, you're doing something right. They beat six winning teams overall on the year.
Last but not least, Michigan returned to prominence with a 52% SOS rating. The Wolverines beat unranked 7-6 Notre Dame by seven points at home, they beat unranked 7-5 Iowa at home by four points, they beat unranked 7-5 Michigan State by 16 points on the road, they beat AP #16 Penn State (9-3) on the road by 26 points, they beat unranked 8-5 Wisconsin on the road by ten points, they beat AP #12 Ohio State (10-3) home by six points, and they beat #9 Washington State in the Rose Bowl by five points. They beat three ranked teams on the season by an average of 12 points each. They beat seven winning teams in 1997.
Overall, Florida State's SOS isn't enough to overcome their one loss. They needed to be above 60% to have a shot, basically.
So, of course, it's Michigan versus Nebraska. Their game results against ranked teams are almost virtual opposites: Nebraska pounded every ranked team they played but one, while Michigan squeaked by every ranked team they played but one. But Nebraska played more ranked teams, and their bowl win was significantly more impressive.
Michigan has the SOS edge, but it's primarily based on those unranked teams above, while the Cornhuskers played a more top-heavy schedule. What hurts Nebraska's SOS are games against 2-9 Akron, 2-9 Baylor and 1-10 Iowa State. Dragging down the Wolverine SOS are 2-9 Baylor, 2-9 Indiana and 3-9 Minnesota. Eliminate these dwellers, and the SOS ratings are relatively even.
Common opponents helps us here, too, perhaps? Both teams played Colorado and Baylor: Nebraska beat Baylor on the road by 28 and Colorado on the road by three points, while Michigan beat the Bears by 35 points at home and the Buffaloes by 24 points at home. The Wolverines get an edge here, although beating Colorado in Boulder in late November is a tougher challenge than beating them in Ann Arbor in September.
In the end, Nebraska is going to win this comparison for two reasons: 1) They beat better opponents by bigger margins. In fact, they beat 13 teams by an average of 30.2 points per game in 1997, while Michigan beat 12 teams by an average of 17.3 points per game. Considering their SOS ratings were so comparable, this is a distinct edge for the Huskers when you consider how they dominated ranked teams while Michigan merely scraped by ranked teams; 2) With everything on the line in their bowl games, the Huskers beat the one-loss, SEC-champion Volunteers (then-#3) by 25 points in a game that was never close, while the Wolverines beat the one-loss, Pac-10 champions (then-#7) by five points in a game that went down to the wire and ended on a controversial clock judgment (in favor of the Wolverines).
Bottom line? The Huskers beat a better team more convincingly when it mattered most.
McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Michigan
3. Florida State
4. Kansas State
5. North Carolina
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1996 McMNC: Florida Gators
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Florida: 12-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 52-20
2. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 20-17
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-52
4. Arizona State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 17-20
5. BYU: 14-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 19-15
6. Nebraska: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 41-21
7. Penn State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 38-15
8. Colorado: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 33-21
9. Tennessee: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 48-28
10. North Carolina: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 20-13
Side note: Not sure why FSU finished above ASU in this final poll, considering the Sun Devils lost their bowl game by three points in the final seconds, while FSU lost their bowl game by many touchdowns the minute their bowl match-up was announced.
Technically, every team on this list, save FSU and ASU, have a shot at the McMNC. Yikes! Let's eliminate first: North Carolina didn't win the ACC, so they're out. Tennessee didn't win the SEC, so they're out. Nebraska and Colorado didn't win the Big XII, so they're out. Penn State didn't win the Big Ten, so they're out.
That leaves us with BYU, Ohio State and Florida.
The Cougars lost on the road to AP #16 Washington (9-3) by 12 points. Not a bad blemish, to be sure, but ... the problem for BYU is the rest of the schedule, as usual. With only a 48% SOS rating, they're way behind already. They only beat two ranked teams all year: AP #22 Wyoming (10-2) and AP #17 Kansas State (9-3) in the Cotton Bowl by a combined seven points. The rest of their schedule was a joke: Arkansas State, New Mexico, Utah State, UTEP, etc.
Ohio State, in usual fashion, blew their season in the last regular season game against AP #20 Michigan (8-4). Losing by four points at home to the Wolverines with everything on the line was just bad. But it's not fatal in this discussion: the Buckeyes had a very good 56% SOS rating, and they beat six winning teams in 1996 -- including four ranked teams. Ohio State has victories over unranked 7-4 Rice by 63 points at home, AP #19 Notre Dame (8-3) by 13 points on the road, #7 Penn State by 31 points at home, unranked 8-5 Wisconsin at home by three points, AP #18 Iowa (9-3) by 12 points on the road, and #4 Arizona State in the Rose Bowl.
Florida lost by three points on the road to Florida State on November 30, won the SEC title game the following weekend and found itself with a rematch against the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl. The Gators had an SOS rating of 60%, which is excellent. Florida beat #9 Tennessee (10-2) by six points on the road (of course, they did!), they beat AP #12 Louisiana State (10-2) at home by 43 points, they beat AP #24 Auburn (8-4) by 41 points at home, they beat unranked 6-5 South Carolina by 27 points at home, they beat AP #11 Alabama (10-3) by 15 points in the SEC title game, and they beat #3 Florida State by 32 points in the bowl rematch.
Without a doubt, Florida has the better resume: higher SOS and dominating wins over five ranked teams. But the issue I have is the fact they got a rematch they didn't deserve in the bowl game, which gave them a shot at a championship they perhaps don't deserve, either. This will be an extensive problem later as I go through the BCS years, but this is a pre-BCS problem, of course.
Why did Florida get a rematch with Florida State? With Arizona State and Ohio State locked into the Rose Bowl, what other team could have faced undefeated Florida State in a bowl game worth its salt? Nebraska was an obvious choice, but with two losses and the promise of the rematch, the Bowl Coalition screwed us all up.
My problem is this: like 2006, why should a team get a second chance to beat a team it couldn't beat the first time? If the college football season is truly a playoff, Florida's loss to Florida State should have eliminated them from the fray. In fact, why doesn't it, anyway? Florida holds no edge over #3 Florida State, since they split the two head-to-head meetings. Why should the bowl game be given precedence over the regular season game?
Yes, the bowl game season has been a primary factor in the entire McMNC analysis. But this is a strange and unique circumstance. We've had rematches before (1965 UCLA and Michigan State come to mind, for example), but never a rematch after so late a regular season matchup.
Why did Ohio State's loss to Michigan eliminate the Buckeyes in the eyes of the voters while Florida's loss to Florida State did not eliminate the Gators? I don't like it, at all. It violates the very arguments that are routinely given for why there is no tournament championship in major college football.
I feel confident in saying that everyone *knew* Florida would beat Florida State in a rematch, that somehow the Seminoles had gotten lucky in the 24-21 win on November 30. And, since Arizona State was undefeated still, no one suspected Florida would win the MNC simply by beating Florida State. They still needed help.
Goddamn, Sun Devils. You could have made this all moot by just playing some better defense.
I know the purpose of this exercise is to clarify a proper champion, since we can never do it on the field. But I struggled with this one to the end: however wrong the rematch was, Florida was still the better team in 1996. If the Gators had beaten Arizona State instead, and the Buckeyes had beaten Florida State instead, this would be a clear choice.
Like BYU in 1984, Florida just got lucky this year when they had no business winning this title.
McMNC Revisions
1. Florida
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. BYU
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Florida: 12-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 52-20
2. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 20-17
3. Florida State: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 20-52
4. Arizona State: 11-1-0 -- L, Rose, 17-20
5. BYU: 14-1-0 -- W, Cotton, 19-15
6. Nebraska: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 41-21
7. Penn State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 38-15
8. Colorado: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 33-21
9. Tennessee: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 48-28
10. North Carolina: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 20-13
Side note: Not sure why FSU finished above ASU in this final poll, considering the Sun Devils lost their bowl game by three points in the final seconds, while FSU lost their bowl game by many touchdowns the minute their bowl match-up was announced.
Technically, every team on this list, save FSU and ASU, have a shot at the McMNC. Yikes! Let's eliminate first: North Carolina didn't win the ACC, so they're out. Tennessee didn't win the SEC, so they're out. Nebraska and Colorado didn't win the Big XII, so they're out. Penn State didn't win the Big Ten, so they're out.
That leaves us with BYU, Ohio State and Florida.
The Cougars lost on the road to AP #16 Washington (9-3) by 12 points. Not a bad blemish, to be sure, but ... the problem for BYU is the rest of the schedule, as usual. With only a 48% SOS rating, they're way behind already. They only beat two ranked teams all year: AP #22 Wyoming (10-2) and AP #17 Kansas State (9-3) in the Cotton Bowl by a combined seven points. The rest of their schedule was a joke: Arkansas State, New Mexico, Utah State, UTEP, etc.
Ohio State, in usual fashion, blew their season in the last regular season game against AP #20 Michigan (8-4). Losing by four points at home to the Wolverines with everything on the line was just bad. But it's not fatal in this discussion: the Buckeyes had a very good 56% SOS rating, and they beat six winning teams in 1996 -- including four ranked teams. Ohio State has victories over unranked 7-4 Rice by 63 points at home, AP #19 Notre Dame (8-3) by 13 points on the road, #7 Penn State by 31 points at home, unranked 8-5 Wisconsin at home by three points, AP #18 Iowa (9-3) by 12 points on the road, and #4 Arizona State in the Rose Bowl.
Florida lost by three points on the road to Florida State on November 30, won the SEC title game the following weekend and found itself with a rematch against the Seminoles in the Sugar Bowl. The Gators had an SOS rating of 60%, which is excellent. Florida beat #9 Tennessee (10-2) by six points on the road (of course, they did!), they beat AP #12 Louisiana State (10-2) at home by 43 points, they beat AP #24 Auburn (8-4) by 41 points at home, they beat unranked 6-5 South Carolina by 27 points at home, they beat AP #11 Alabama (10-3) by 15 points in the SEC title game, and they beat #3 Florida State by 32 points in the bowl rematch.
Without a doubt, Florida has the better resume: higher SOS and dominating wins over five ranked teams. But the issue I have is the fact they got a rematch they didn't deserve in the bowl game, which gave them a shot at a championship they perhaps don't deserve, either. This will be an extensive problem later as I go through the BCS years, but this is a pre-BCS problem, of course.
Why did Florida get a rematch with Florida State? With Arizona State and Ohio State locked into the Rose Bowl, what other team could have faced undefeated Florida State in a bowl game worth its salt? Nebraska was an obvious choice, but with two losses and the promise of the rematch, the Bowl Coalition screwed us all up.
My problem is this: like 2006, why should a team get a second chance to beat a team it couldn't beat the first time? If the college football season is truly a playoff, Florida's loss to Florida State should have eliminated them from the fray. In fact, why doesn't it, anyway? Florida holds no edge over #3 Florida State, since they split the two head-to-head meetings. Why should the bowl game be given precedence over the regular season game?
Yes, the bowl game season has been a primary factor in the entire McMNC analysis. But this is a strange and unique circumstance. We've had rematches before (1965 UCLA and Michigan State come to mind, for example), but never a rematch after so late a regular season matchup.
Why did Ohio State's loss to Michigan eliminate the Buckeyes in the eyes of the voters while Florida's loss to Florida State did not eliminate the Gators? I don't like it, at all. It violates the very arguments that are routinely given for why there is no tournament championship in major college football.
I feel confident in saying that everyone *knew* Florida would beat Florida State in a rematch, that somehow the Seminoles had gotten lucky in the 24-21 win on November 30. And, since Arizona State was undefeated still, no one suspected Florida would win the MNC simply by beating Florida State. They still needed help.
Goddamn, Sun Devils. You could have made this all moot by just playing some better defense.
I know the purpose of this exercise is to clarify a proper champion, since we can never do it on the field. But I struggled with this one to the end: however wrong the rematch was, Florida was still the better team in 1996. If the Gators had beaten Arizona State instead, and the Buckeyes had beaten Florida State instead, this would be a clear choice.
Like BYU in 1984, Florida just got lucky this year when they had no business winning this title.
McMNC Revisions
1. Florida
2. Ohio State
3. Arizona State
4. BYU
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Thursday, August 7, 2008
1995 McMNC: Nebraska Cornhuskers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Nebraska: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 62-24
2. Florida: 12-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 24-62
3. Tennessee: 11-1-0 -- W, Citrus, 20-14
4. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 31-26
5. Colorado: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-6
6. Ohio State: 11-2-0 -- L, Citrus, 14-20
7. Kansas State: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 45-21
8. Northwestern: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 32-41
9. Kansas: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 51-30
10. Virginia Tech: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 28-10
This is pretty much the biggest slam dunk to date, I think. The only two teams within a game of Nebraska can't touch the Huskers, by virtue of a head-to-head loss and a non-conference champ status.
But let's discuss some ideas, anyway. Ohio State started this season 11-0 before losing to Michigan in their final regular season game of the year. That could have been interesting ... also, Northwestern came within two points of running the regular season table themselves this season. We were SO close to a four-team scrum at the end for the crown. That would have been a "plus-one" scenario, for sure, except that Northwestern would have been locked into the Rose Bowl, of course.
College football is good and terrible, isn't it?
For the record, the Huskers beat unranked 6-5-1 Michigan State on the road by 40 points, they beat unranked 6-5 Arizona State 77-28 at home (setting up the 1996 upset by the Sun Devils, of course), they beat #7 Kansas State by 24 points at home, they beat #5 Colorado by 23 points on the road, they beat #9 Kansas on the road by 38 points, and they beat #2 Florida by 38 points in the bowl game. See the obvious difference between the Huskers' 1994 and 1995 teams?
This team DOMINATED. And that's all she wrote ...
McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Virginia Tech
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Nebraska: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 62-24
2. Florida: 12-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 24-62
3. Tennessee: 11-1-0 -- W, Citrus, 20-14
4. Florida State: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 31-26
5. Colorado: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 38-6
6. Ohio State: 11-2-0 -- L, Citrus, 14-20
7. Kansas State: 10-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 45-21
8. Northwestern: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 32-41
9. Kansas: 10-2-0 -- W, Aloha, 51-30
10. Virginia Tech: 10-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 28-10
This is pretty much the biggest slam dunk to date, I think. The only two teams within a game of Nebraska can't touch the Huskers, by virtue of a head-to-head loss and a non-conference champ status.
But let's discuss some ideas, anyway. Ohio State started this season 11-0 before losing to Michigan in their final regular season game of the year. That could have been interesting ... also, Northwestern came within two points of running the regular season table themselves this season. We were SO close to a four-team scrum at the end for the crown. That would have been a "plus-one" scenario, for sure, except that Northwestern would have been locked into the Rose Bowl, of course.
College football is good and terrible, isn't it?
For the record, the Huskers beat unranked 6-5-1 Michigan State on the road by 40 points, they beat unranked 6-5 Arizona State 77-28 at home (setting up the 1996 upset by the Sun Devils, of course), they beat #7 Kansas State by 24 points at home, they beat #5 Colorado by 23 points on the road, they beat #9 Kansas on the road by 38 points, and they beat #2 Florida by 38 points in the bowl game. See the obvious difference between the Huskers' 1994 and 1995 teams?
This team DOMINATED. And that's all she wrote ...
McMNC Revisions
1. Nebraska
2. Florida
3. Tennessee
4. Virginia Tech
5. Florida State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
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