1998 McMNC: Tennessee Volunteers

Okay, so we've entered a new era here, and it's not as easy as anointing the BCS champ as my McMNC. Why? Because quite often, we're not even sure the right two teams were invited to the title game, so it's very possible for a team to win the BCS title game and not win the McMNC. It's also very possible for a team that didn't get invited to the BCS title game to have a better resume than a team that did get to -- and win -- the BCS title game.

And I'm not just thinking of 2003, either. So without further adieu, here we go ...

AP Top 13: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Tennessee: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 23-16
2. Ohio State: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 24-14
3. Florida State: 11-2-0 -- L, Fiesta, 16-23
4. Arizona: 12-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 23-20
5. Florida: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 31-10
6. Wisconsin: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 38-31
7. Tulane: 12-0-0 -- W, Liberty, 41-27
8. UCLA: 10-2-0 -- L, Rose, 31-38
9. Georgia Tech: 10-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-28
10. Kansas State: 11-2-0 -- L, Alamo, 34-37
11. Texas A&M: 11-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-24
12. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- W, Citrus, 45-31
13. Air Force: 12-1-0 -- W, O'ahu, 45-25

Tennessee, as the only unbeaten/untied team from a BCS/major conference, probably deserved its spot in the title game. But more on that later. The question is why Florida State was chosen as the second team when Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane, UCLA, Kansas State and Air Force all had excellent seasons, too.

Of course, UCLA and K-State went on to lose their bowls -- and their claim to the McMNC, of course. But these are interesting cases to examine. First, UCLA: The Bruins had a 20-game winning streak on the line when they played a re-scheduled game at Miami-FL on December 5. This was a hurricane-delayed game, and the Bruins had wrapped their "regular" season with a 34-17 win over unranked 8-5 USC on November 21. However, they were forced to travel to Florida two weeks later to play this game against Miami which had originally been scheduled for September. With a BCS title game slot on the line, the Bruins lost 49-45 in a classic trap game. With such disappointment, it's a surprise they even managed to play a respectable game in the Rose Bowl. Likewise, K-State was 11-0 with only the Big XII title game between them and the BCS title game slot. Texas A&M upset the Wildcats in overtime, and suddenly, K-State is in the friggin' Alamo Bowl against an unranked Big Ten also-ran. Motivation? Gone.

This began the interesting BCS shuffle every year, where teams on the precipice would lose, thus opening the door for other deserving (or non-deserving) teams. The first year, there were three undefeated teams on the last day of the regular season, and only Tennessee survived. Thus? Chaos ensued for BCS title slot #2.

The Bobby Bowden lovefest reigned supreme in 1998. But why?

With a 17-point road loss to an unranked team (7-5 North Carolina State), the Seminoles never should have been in contention for a BCS spot. They did have a strong resume: 62% SOS rating and five wins over AP Top 20 teams by an average of 16+ points per game. Yet they proved their unworthiness with their lackluster showing in the Fiesta Bowl. Could another team have done better against the Vols?

Perhaps. But let's start with Tennessee to see what we're dealing with here. The Vols had a 54% SOS rating, which is good. They beat AP #25 Syracuse (8-4) by one point on the road, they beat #5 Florida by three points at home, they beat AP #14 Georgia (9-3) by 19 points on the road, and they beat AP #16 Arkansas (9-3) by four points at home (remember this game? Both teams were unbeaten, and the Hogs gave the game away ...). Tennessee also beat #3 FSU in the Fiesta Bowl, of course. With those five wins, you think their SOS would be higher, but the Vols also played 3-8 Houston, 3-8 Auburn (scratching out an eight-point road win), 1-10 South Carolina, 4-7 UAB, and 2-9 Vanderbilt.

So who can challenge The Philip Fulmers in 1998? Ohio State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Tulane and Air Force. But actually, Arizona cannot challenge, since they didn't win the Pac-10. In fact, they lost to UCLA at home by 24 points, and they only had a 46% SOS rating, anyway. Another wildcat bites the dust ...

Ohio State and Wisconsin technically tied for the Big Ten title. They didn't play each other, and the Badgers got the Rose Bowl bid since Ohio State had just been there in 1996. Both are eligible for the McMNC: can they challenge?

The Badgers' 49% SOS says no. With an OOC schedule of San Diego State, UNLV and Ohio U., Wisconsin took the easy route to 11 wins. They did beat AP #24 Purdue (9-4) by seven points at home, AP #17 Penn State (9-3) at home by 21 points, and unmotivated #8 UCLA in the Rose Bowl by seven points. And, of course, they lost to #12 Michigan by 17 points on the road. Double-digit losses, even to ranked teams are not good, but the poor SOS rating and lack of enough wins over ranked teams dooms the Badgers, anyway. They certainly didn't belong in the BCS title game over FSU.

The Buckeyes? They had a 54% SOS rating, which was equal to the Vols' number but behind Florida State's number. Their one loss was that inexplicable home collapse against unranked 6-6 Sparty, where they blew a 15-point lead in the second half to lose by four points. Otherwise, Ohio State beat AP #21 Missouri (8-4) by 21 points at home, they beat #17 Penn State by 19 points at home, #12 Michigan by 15 points at home, and they beat #11 Texas A&M by 11 points in the Sugar Bowl. They have a slightly better resume than Wisconsin, but FSU was still the right choice over the Buckeyes for the BCS title game.

Tulane went undefeated/untied with a 39% SOS rating. They didn't beat a ranked team all year. Not much else to say here, except "Great season, boys!" -- you have no shot at the McMNC. Air Force? They had a 42% SOS rating, and their one loss was by a point, on the road, to unranked 7-5 TCU. They fall below Tulane on this scale.

So in the end, Tennessee verifies its BCS title for two reasons: 1) They were the best team from start-to-finish all year; 2) They beat the next-best team (FSU) in the BCS title game to leave no doubt.

McMNC Revisions
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Wisconsin
4. Tulane
5. Air Force

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993