1994 McMNC: Penn State Nittany Lions

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Nebraska: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 24-17
2. Penn State: 12-0-0 -- W, Rose, 38-20
3. Colorado: 11-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 41-24
4. Florida State: 10-1-1 -- W, Sugar, 23-17
5. Alabama: 12-1-0 -- W, Citrus, 24-17
6. Miami: 10-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-24
7. Florida: 10-2-1 -- L, SUgar, 17-23
8. Texas A&M: 10-0-1 -- NONE (probation)
9. Auburn: 9-1-1 -- NONE (probation)
10. Utah: 10-2-0 -- W, Freedom, 16-13

Another interesting season, to be sure. Florida ruined Alabama's perfect season by winning the SEC title game, 24-23, on December 3. Otherwise, we might have had THREE unbeaten, untied teams in 1994. What a nightmare that could have been ... then again, maybe not (as you will see below).

Putting Miami in the Orange Bowl against the Huskers was dumb, since Miami's one regular season loss was by 18 points at home to 7-4 Washington. Did anyone really think the Hurricanes were a worthy opponent for the Huskers? I realize was the Bowl Coalition Era, or whatever, but still ...

Alabama can't be a TUC, since they didn't win the SEC. Too bad. If they had gone undefeated, they would have won the McMNC with their SOS rating (54%). Colorado isn't eligible, since they lost the Big 8 crown to Nebraska thanks to a 17-point loss in Lincoln.

That leaves us with three teams: Florida State, Penn State and Nebraska. The Seminoles will need a significant edge in SOS to even be in this debate? Do they have it?

Yes and no. FSU's SOS rating (60%) is excellent, but they have two blemishes: a 14-point road loss to #6 Miami and a home tie against #7 Florida. Are they bad blemishes? No. And they did beat the Gators in the bowl rematch. But losing by 14 to the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl stadium, when the Huskers beat the Hurricanes there by seven points is a hard sell.

Unless, of course, Nebraska has a really poor SOS.

Which they do not: at 52%, the Huskers' SOS is fine and good enough to hold off the Seminoles. Nebraska beat unranked 7-6 West Virginia on the road 31-0, they beat unranked 6-5 Pacific 70-21 at home, they beat AP #19 Kansas State (9-3) by 11 points on the road, they beat #3 Colorado at home by 17 points, they beat unranked 6-5 Kansas at home by 28 points, and they beat #6 Miami in the Orange Bowl. Three wins over ranked teams is good, but certainly not great. Plus, they didn't necessarily blowout any of those three teams, either. Overall, they beat six winning teams. Iowa State (0-10-1) was the big dog on the schedule.

Penn State also has an SOS rating of 52% for 1994, so that's a draw. The Nittany Lions (why do I always want to abbreviate that as the Nits?) beat AP #13 USC (8-3-1) by 24 points at home, they beat AP #12 Michigan (8-4) by seven points on the road, they shredded AP #14 Ohio State (9-4) by 49 points at home (63-14), they beat unranked 6-5 Indiana by six points on the road (more on this later), they beat unranked 7-5 Illinois by four points on the road, and they beat AP #11 Oregon (9-4) by 18 points in the Rose Bowl. They beat four ranked teams on the season, although none ranked as high as Nebraska's two marquee victims. But they beat those four teams by almost 25 points each, on average. They, too, beat six winning teams in 1994. Temple (2-9) was the worst team on Penn State's schedule.

So who gets the edge?

The Big 8 had a down year; only three teams finished above .500 (see above). Six teams in the Big Ten finished above .500 in a down year for that conference, too. OOC scheduling was interesting: the Huskers scheduled West Virginia (road), Texas Tech (road), UCLA (home), Pacific (home) and Wyoming (home). Penn State scheduled USC (home), Rutgers (home) and Temple (road). They both tried to get good teams to play OOC.

Penn State's bowl win was probably more impressive, for simple transitive reasons: Washington's 38-20 win over Miami in the 'Canes' backyard dwarfs Nebraska's bowl win over Miami, although we can't underestimate the "pressure" factor. But when Penn State beat Oregon by 18 points, and the Ducks beat Washington by 11 points, and the Huskies beat the 'Canes by 18 points -- you'd have to think the Huskers could beat the 'Canes by more than seven points.

The Nits were probably the better team in 1994. They dropped in the polls after the "close" win over Indiana, which really wasn't all that close. They dominated better opponents in the season than Nebraska did, and they had a better bowl win comparatively speaking.

In the end, Penn State just has the better peripheral numbers.

McMNC Revisions
1. Penn State
2. Nebraska
3. Alabama
4. Colorado
5. Florida State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Michigan: +1947, =1948
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993
Texas: =1963, -1969
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993