2006 McMNC: Boise State Broncos

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Florida: 13-1-0 -- W, BCS, 41-14
2. Ohio State: 12-1-0 -- L, BCS, 14-41
3. LSU: 11-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 41-14
4. USC: 11-2-0 -- W, Rose, 32-18
5. Boise State: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 43-42
6. Louisville: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-13
7. Wisconsin: 12-1-0 -- W, Capital One, 17-14
8. Michigan: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 18-32
9. Auburn: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
10. West Virginia: 11-2-0 -- W, Gator, 38-35

Side note: six of the Top 10 teams were from the Big Ten and the SEC. Hmmmm. Makes you wonder why the other four conferences don't want a playoff, eh?

What a mess this was for the BCS. Considering the debates that raged on between Michigan and Florida for the #2 slot in the title game -- while neglecting title-worthy Louisville and Boise State -- just created another BCS clusterfuck.

TUCs are Florida, Boise State and Louisville -- as Wisconsin didn't win the Big Ten, and Ohio State lost its bowl game.

Louisville: With a 57% SOS rating, the Cardinals do belong in this discussion. Their one loss was on the road by three points to AP #12 Rutgers (11-2), and Louisville had wins over unranked 8-5 Kentucky by 31 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Miami-FL by 24 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Kansas State by 18 points on the road, over unranked 8-5 Cincinnati at home by six points, over #10 West Virginia by ten points at home, over unranked 9-4 South Florida by 23 points at home, and over AP #18 Wake Forest (11-3) by 11 points in the Orange Bowl. While they only had two wins over ranked teams, their SOS stands up to scrutiny (see below).

Boise State: Their 50% SOS rating is average, of course, but they didn't lose to anyone, either. They beat AP #21 Oregon State (10-4) by 28 points at home, they beat USA #24 Hawaii (11-3) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 Utah by 33 points on the road, they beat unranked 9-4 San Jose State on the road by three points, they beat unranked 8-5 Nevada on the road by 31 points, and they beat AP #11 Oklahoma (11-3) by a point in the Fiesta Bowl. Beating three ranked teams -- two from power conferences -- solidifies their legitimacy and completes that multi-year journey from small conference also-ran to big-time MNC contender.

Florida: They had an outstanding 61% SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to #9 Auburn by ten points. They beat unranked 9-5 Southern Mississippi by 27 points, they beat AP #25 Tennessee (9-4) by one point on the road, they beat unranked 8-5 Kentucky at home by 19 points, they beat #3 LSU at home by 13 points, they beat AP #23 Georgia (9-4) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 South Carolina by one point at home, they beat unranked 7-6 Florida State by seven points on the road, they beat AP #15 Arkansas (10-4) in the SEC title game by ten points, and they beat #2 Ohio State by 27 points in the BCS title game. They beat nine winning teams in 2006, which is pretty amazing.

But Florida did lose a game (by double digits, no less), as did Louisville. Boise State did not.

Now, in the past, a double-digit edge in SOS rating was qualified as enough to overcome a loss in my McMNC analysis if the team with the better W/L record was deemed inferior enough. Without reviewing all my posts, however, I have no idea if an undefeated team with a 50% SOS rating was ever ousted from its McMNC perch by a team with a loss.

First, we have to eliminate one of the one-loss teams. Florida has the SOS edge on Louisville, but the Cardinals have a better loss -- leaving the Gators still slightly ahead. Common opponents? Both teams beat Kentucky: Florida by 19 points at home, Louisville by 31 points at home. Distinct edge, Louisville.

I don't see much difference between Louisville and Florida on paper, in fact. The Gators' OOC slate? Typical SEC modern fare: three directionals (Central Florida and Western Carolina were the other two) and Florida State, for a composite 22-28 record. Louisville's OOC foes? Kentucky, Temple, Miami-FL, Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State (30-34 overall combined). Neither was impressive, but Louisville scheduled more BCS teams on their OOC.

We'll get back to this (if we need to?).

Is Boise State's status as the only unbeaten approachable? One key factor was the Broncos' win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners were 11-2 and the Big XII champions coming into this game. In reality, they should have been 12-1 and in the discussion with Florida for the BCS title game slot. Remember the Oregon game where the officials screwed up so thoroughly and cost the Sooners a win (http://youtube.com/watch?v=IGgd12VzLWA)? The Sooners' only real loss was an 18-point beating by AP #13 Texas (10-3). Basically, Oklahoma was good enough to take Florida's spot in the BCS title game if officials hadn't screwed them up. This is akin to Colorado's Fifth Down nonsense in 1990, basically. The Sooners should have been 12-1 and a BCS title game contender in 2006.

And Boise State beat them.

What this shows is that the Broncos could hang with the best of the BCS teams in 2006. There was little separating Florida, Louisville, Michigan (59% SOS) and Oklahoma (54% SOS) on paper at the end of the regular season. Florida was chosen to face #1 Ohio State mostly because people didn't want a rematch of Michigan-Ohio State and the trendy SEC love affair currently in vogue, but it easily could have been one of the other three teams above (assuming the officials had done their job correctly in Eugene).

And it should have been Boise State, in fact, chosen to face the Buckeyes.

Just because the BCS screwed up does not mean the debate between Florida and Louisville is irrelevant, but Boise State was good enough to claim the McMNC with its undefeated season, its SOS, and most importantly, its win over Big XII champion and BCS title game-worthy Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

McMNC Revisions
1. Boise State
2. Florida
3. Louisville
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
LSU: =1958, -2003
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993