2003 McMNC: USC Trojans

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 28-14
2. LSU: 13-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 21-14
3. Oklahoma: 12-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-21
4. Ohio State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-28
5. Miami-FL: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 16-14
6. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- L, Rose, 14-28
7. Georgia: 11-3-0 -- W, Capital One, 34-27
8. Iowa: 10-3-0 -- W, Outback, 37-17
9. Washington State: 10-3-0 -- W, Holiday, 28-20
10. Miami-OH: 13-1-0 -- W, GMAC, 49-28

Side note: Boise State (46% SOS) finished 13-1 with a 34-31 win in the Ft. Worth Bowl over TCU. This is an improvement from 2002 for the Broncos.

So, the BCS finally exploded from within in a way that everyone agreed with, as #1 USC was left out of the BCS title game, while another team which didn't win its conference got to play for the "championship" in a game everyone knew they would lose. It was an interesting bowl season, however, as the BCS did provide a No. 1 vs. No. 4 in the Rose Bowl and a No. 2 vs. No. 3 in the Sugar Bowl.

Plus-one anyone? Of course not. That would make too much "cents" for the BCS.

So here we are again: six TUCs this year, although some get eliminated immediately. Oklahoma didn't win its conference or its bowl game, for example. Ohio State didn't win its conference, either.

This leaves us with Miami-OH, Miami-FL, LSU and USC.

Before you laugh, consider the Red Hawks' only loss was on the road to #8 Iowa (by 18 points) in the season opener, and their SOS rating was 51% -- better than some previous McMNCs, obviously. They beat AP #23 Bowling Green (11-3) by 23 points in the regular season, and they beat the Falcons again in the MAC title game by 22 points. Overall, they played seven winning teams on the season, including unranked 9-4 Louisville in the bowl game. The SOS would be higher if not for 1-11 SUNY-Buffalo, 2-10 Ohio University and 3-9 Central Florida. And they even played eight games on the road.

The other Miami squad won the Big East with a 54% SOS rating. This isn't enough to overcome their two losses, however: a 24-point road loss at unranked Virginia Tech (8-5) and a four-point home loss to AP #15 Tennessee (10-3). A big loss to an unranked team is never good, but the Hurricanes just don't have the SOS rating to even pass the other Miami. However, the Coker Bunch did have wins over AP #24 Florida and AP #11 Florida State (twice, one on the road in the regular season and once in the Orange Bowl).

Louisiana State won the SEC and posted a 54% SOS rating. Their one loss was to AP #24 Florida (8-5) at home by 12 points. They had wins over #7 Georgia by seven points at home, AP #13 Mississippi (10-3) by three points on the road, #7 Georgia (again) by 21 points in the SEC title game, and #3 Oklahoma by seven points at home in the Sugar Bowl. The SOS would have been higher, but games against 1-11 Louisiana-Monroe, 2-10 Arizona, 2-10 Mississippi State and 4-9 Alabama hurt.

The Trojans won the Pac-10 while posting a 52% SOS rating. Their one loss was on the road to unranked 8-6 California in OT. Otherwise, USC beat #9 Washington State by 27 points at home and #6 Michigan at home in the Rose Bowl by 14 points. They faced three other winning teams and four other teams which finished at .500 or within a game of breaking even. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Arizona.

It is interesting to note that Miami-OH and USC both only beat two ranked teams all season, and the Red Hawks certainly have a decent loss. But USC beat two Top 10 teams, while Miami-OH merely beat #23 twice. For what it's worth, Miami did schedule Iowa, Northwestern (6-7) and Colorado State (7-6) as OOC opponents -- certainly a better effort than LSU's OOC slate of Louisiana-Monroe, Arizona, Western Illinois (9-4) and Louisiana Tech (5-7). The Trojans' OOC gang included Auburn (8-5), BYU (4-8), Hawaii (9-5) and Notre Dame (5-7).

On paper, maybe the Red Hawks can hang with the Tigers and the Trojans, but our eyes tell us otherwise. It was a great season for Miami-OH, but the big loss to Iowa is telling, as the Hawkeyes beat Michigan by three points -- and USC beat the Wolverines by 14 points with everything on the line in the Rose Bowl.

So it's USC versus LSU, and there are some common opponents to consider: Auburn, which lost by 24 on the road to LSU and lost at home by 23 to USC. Advantage? Trojans. Arizona hosted both teams, losing by 46 to LSU and by 45 to USC. Even draw, also considering the Wildcats actually scored against the Tigers (13 points, while the Trojans got the shutout). So USC gets a slight edge on the common opponents.

LSU has the slight edge on the Trojans in SOS rating, but USC has a better loss: losing to a conference foe on the road in three OTs is better than losing at home to a conference foe by double digits. The Tigers did play more ranked teams, but USC had a better OOC schedule -- although Notre Dame and BYU had down years.

Finally, the bowl games: USC beat #4 by 14 points at home in a game that was never close, while LSU beat #3 by seven points at home in a game that went down to the wire. USC definitely had the better bowl win.

Overall, USC gets the distinct edge, but it still would have been a blast to see these two teams fight it out in the field at a neutral site: say Soldier Field in Chicago?

McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Miami-OH
4. Miami-FL
5. Ohio State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993