1999 McMNC: Florida State Seminoles

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. Florida State: 12-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 46-29
2. Virginia Tech: 11-1-0 -- L, Sugar, 29-46
3. Nebraska: 12-1-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-21
4. Wisconsin: 10-2-0 -- W, Rose, 17-9
5. Michigan: 10-2-0 -- W, Orange, 35-34
6. Kansas State: 11-1-0 -- W, Holiday, 24-20
7. Michigan State: 10-2-0 -- W, Citrus, 37-34
8. Alabama: 10-3-0 -- L, Orange, 34-35
9. Tennessee: 9-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 21-31
10. Marshall: 13-0-0 -- W, Motor City, 21-3

This BCS year had the only two undefeated teams in the title game, so it appears on the surface to be a verification of the system's true intent.

FSU had a 58% SOS rating, with wins over AP #20 Georgia Tech, AP #15 Miami and AP #12 Florida. They had seven wins over winning teams and two wins over .500 teams. So they only had two wins over losing teams (3-8 Duke, 5-6 Maryland) going into the Sugar Bowl.

Virginia Tech had a 53% SOS rating, with a win over AP #15 Miami. That was the Hokies' only win over a ranked team in 1999. They did beat 8-4 James Madison (47-0), 7-5 Virginia (31-7), 7-5 Syracuse (62-0), and 8-4 Boston College (38-14). They also had wins over 1-10 Rutgers and 2-9 Temple. They played a weak schedule, and they were exposed in the title game against FSU.

Could another team have played FSU more evenly? The candidates are minimal: Nebraska and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't play an AP-ranked team all season, of course, and their SOS rating (44%) doesn't cut it.

Which leaves us with Nebraska. Were the Cornhuskers more deserving of a spot in the BCS title game than Virginia Tech? Their one loss was a four-point road setback against AP #21 Texas (9-5), certainly far from shameful. The Huskers had wins over AP #14 Southern Mississippi, AP #23 Texas A&M, AP #6 Kansas State, and AP #21 Texas (in the Big XII title game rematch, 22-6). Their SOS rating was 55%, which was better than Virginia Tech's number.

Here's one other thought to consider: The Hokies' regular season SOS rating was only 48%, while Nebraska's regular season SOS rating was 53%. Considering the fact Nebraska played five games against ranked opponents while the Hokies only played one game, it's a shame Virginia Tech was voted so readily into the second BCS slot for the Sugar Bowl over the Huskers. This deserved more scrutiny.

For argument's sake, since the Hokies lost, let's assume it should have been the Huskers.

Which leaves us with a final question: FSU or Nebraska? Of course, we'll never know how Nebraska might have fared in the Sugar Bowl against FSU, so all we're left with is the numbers: unblemished FSU with a 58% SOS rating against one-loss Nebraska with a 55% SOS rating.

They had no common opponents, although there are many transitive score possibilities. For example, FSU beat Florida by seven points on the road, and Florida beat beat Tennessee by two points at home. Nebraska beat Tennessee by ten points in the Fiesta Bowl. What can this tell us? Nothing, sadly enough. Both teams outscored their opponents on average by about 21 points.

The BCS fucked it up this year: it might have been 11-0 Florida State against 11-1 Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl, but on paper, the Cornhuskers don't have enough to overcome the Seminoles' perfect record.

What a shame we'll never know who the true college football champion was in 1999.

McMNC Revisions
1. Florida State
2. Nebraska
3. Virginia Tech
4. Kansas State
5. Marshall

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993