2007 McMNC: West Virginia Mountaineers

AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results

1. LSU: 12-2 -- W, BCS, 38-24
2. Georgia: 11-2 -- W, Sugar, 41-10
3. USC: 11-2 -- W, Rose, 49-17
4. Missouri: 12-2 -- W, Cotton, 38-7
5. Ohio State: 11-2 -- L, BCS, 24-38
6. West Virginia: 11-2 -- W, Fiesta, 48-28
7. Kansas: 12-1 -- W, Orange, 24-21
8. Oklahoma: 11-3 -- L, Fiesta, 28-48
9. Virginia Tech: 11-3 -- L, Orange, 21-24
10. Texas 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 52-34

There's a part of me that wants to go back and change the rules. I don't see how a BCS team can go 12-1 with its only loss being by single digits to the #4 team in the country and NOT be ranked #1, regardless of SOS issues. Kansas really should have been in the BCS title game instead of LSU, and it mystifies me how the BCS continues to justify its existence by simply pandering itself to certain influential whims (2004 Texas, for example, not to mention 2006 Florida and 2007 LSU).

But it's been my rule all along that no team which doesn't win its conference can be named the McMNC. If this were a tournament selection analysis, then Kansas would be in that tournament, of course -- with a chance to prove it on the field. But it's not. I've tried to isolate one team, each year, with the best credentials regardless of popularity contests and power brokering.

But it is a shame: Kansas was the best team in college football in 2007 by most of my usual standards, but because they lost their last regular season game by eight points to #4 Missouri, they have no chance at the McMNC.

Which really leaves us with just three teams which won their conference, won their bowl game and finished with two or fewer losses: LSU, USC, and West Virginia. Each has serious flaws, and each has serious strengths. Choosing one of them is the proverbial challenge of splitting hairs -- just as "choosing" LSU to face Ohio State in the BCS title game was the same proverbial challenge.

Each team is a two-loss BCS conference champion which won its bowl game. The best bowl win of the bunch? Probably West Virginia's win over Oklahoma, for it was a surprise AND a blowout. Everyone pretty much expected LSU and USC to win their bowl games the way they did, so the Mountaineers get a distinct edge here.

Worst loss? This is tough one. Is it West Virginia's choke job at home against Pitt? Is it USC's home loss to The Fraudulent Farm (stanfordsucks)? Is it LSU's home loss to Arkansas where the Tigers gave up 50 points? All of those are pretty bad losses, in truth. No McMNC should be losing to a poor team at home, and no McMNC should be giving up 50 points in a game, no matter how many OTs occur.

So that's a wash. As noted, each team has serious flaws, and I don't think any of them are forgivable.

So on to the positive column!

LSU beat a lot of good teams: they shutout 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC opponents: UAB, Garder-Webb and Tulane which went a combined 11-24 -- making MSU a .500 team against real competition) on the road by 45 points, they beat ACC champion Virginia Tech by 41 points at home, they beat 9-4 Florida (OOC opponents: Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Western Kentucky, Troy) at home by four points, they beat 9-4 Auburn (OOC opponents: New Mexico State, South Florida, Kansas State and Tennessee Tech) at home by six points, they beat 7-6 Alabama (OOC opponents: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, and Louisiana-Monroe which went a combined 22-27 -- making 'Bama a sub-.500 team against real competition) on the road by seven points, they beat 10-4 Tennessee in the SEC title game by seven points, and they beat Big Ten champion Ohio State by 14 points in the BCS title game. It's an interesting season for the Tigers, though: the first two games were probably the best games they played all year, and in truth, both are irrelevant. Why? Because almost 25 minutes into the MSU game, it was only 3-0. And the Hokie game? Basically, you can throw that out due to the immense emotional challenge the Virginia Tech squad faced after the campus massacre in Spring 2007. Sure, LSU squeaked through four tough SEC games by single digits, but they also lost two of them (albeit in OT). Sure, they beat Ohio State, but they didn't beat them like Florida beat them in 2006. Very little about LSU's season was impressive to the point you'd say, "Wow!" Their SOS rating (58%) was very good, but playing Middle Tennessee State, Tulane and Louisiana Tech for OOC opponents is typical SEC junk (see above). When every team in the conference builds its OOC schedule this way, it does make the SOS rating a little hollow -- which surprises me that the mediots haven't figured this out yet as they scramble to anoint a new SEC "power" every season. Finally, LSU didn't even have to play the second-best team in the SEC: Georgia. The Bulldogs finished #2 in the AP poll, but they never faced the Tigers -- who is to say that LSU was *really* the SEC champion? This harkens back to all the unbalanced scheduling the SEC had problems with in years past. No one is going to argue that Tennessee was the second-best SEC team, are they? The Vols lost to 7-6 Cal, lost by 39 at Florida and lost by 24 at Alabama. They may have been the worst 10-win team ever. LSU may have a nice SOS on paper, but in reality, their weak wins over SEC teams who also scheduled OOC pansies is telling. And with two losses over 8-5 SEC also-rans Kentucky (OOC slate including Eastern Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Kent State) and Arkansas (Troy, North Texas, Tennessee-Chattanooga, Florida International), LSU basically lost to two teams that were under at or under .500 against real BCS competition in 2007. So they have their highs and lows -- and a lot of talent, as no one can deny. But that doesn't mean they were the "best" team. Transitive score fun? LSU beat MSU 45-0 on the road; West Virginia beat MSU 38-13 at home.

USC scheduled Nebraska (on the road) and Notre Dame (on the road) as their OOC opponents, although Idaho is also thrown into the fray (which was a favor the Trokans gave to a former assistant, IIRC). That still gives the Trojans a better OOC quality than LSU, however, even though the Huskers and the Irish were a combined 8-16 in 2007 -- at least USC *tried* to schedule good BCS teams. Regardless, the Trojans didn't play as tough as schedule as the Tigers on paper: they beat 9-4 Oregon State (OOC: Utah, Cincinnati, and Idaho State, which went a combined 22-15) at home by 21 points, they beat 7-6 California on the road by seven points, they beat 10-3 Arizona State on the road by 20 points, and they beat 9-4 Illinois in the Rose Bowl by 32 points. Their 47% SOS rating is downright average at best, and USC didn't beat a winning team until November 3. They lost at home to 4-8 Stanford by a point in a game they never should have lost, of course, and they lost to then-#2 9-4 Oregon (with Dennis Dixon) on the road by seven points. Considering Dixon was still healthy and clicking that day, the loss isn't a bad one. But the loss to The Cardinal is pretty bad. Transitive score fun? Illinois beat Ohio State on the road by seven points, and LSU beat Ohio State at home by 14 points. USC beat Illinois at home by 32 points.

West Virginia could have put this all to rest by simply beating Pittsburgh in their last regular season game. But we know they choked. Do they even get a second chance? Of course! This is Division I-A college football, where everyone gets a second (or third?) chance despite the fact the regular season *is* a tournament! The Mountaineers' other loss was on the road to 9-4 South Florida by eight points. Not a great loss, but a respectable one. Just for comparative terms? USF's OOC opponents included Elon, North Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Central Florida. Not exactly stellar, but it still keeps the Bulls above .500 on the year -- which is more than Kentucky and Arkansas can say for their OOC boosts. The Mountaineers (55% SOS rating) did beat 8-5 East Carolina (OOC: Virginia Tech, UNC, West Virginia and N.C. State) by 41 points at home, 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC: see above) by 25 points at home, 8-5 Rutgers (OOC: SUNY-Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State) by 28 points on the road, 10-3 Cincinnati (OOC: Oregon State, Miami-FL and some creampuffs) by five points on the road, 9-4 Connecticut (OOC: Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron) by 45 points at home, and 11-3 Oklahoma (North Texas, Utah State, Miami-FL and Tulsa) by 20 points in the Fiesta Bowl.

West Virginia beat six winning teams on the season, while LSU beat seven winning teams and USC beat four winning teams. The Mountaineers had the best bowl win, while LSU had the best schedule strength (sort of; this OOC issue is just ugly for the SEC). West Virginia had the worst loss, while LSU had big wins over two Top 10 teams (SOS, again, spoken differently).

LSU dodged a bullet with the unbalanced scheduling of the SEC, avoiding its best potential conference foe. USC and West Virginia? Had to play every team in their conferences. All teams lost twice in conference play, but LSU avoided 11-2 Georgia and 5-7 Vanderbilt in the SEC. If USC and West Virginia could avoid similar teams in their conference play, perhaps the Trojans would have skipped games against 9-4 Oregon and 4-8 Stanford -- instead scheduling San Diego State and Pacific as OOC patsies. Perhaps the Mountaineers would have skipped games against 9-4 South Florida and 5-7 Pittsburgh -- instead scheduling OOC patsies Temple and The Citadel. LSU may have won the SEC, but they did so without having to face its next-best team -- and that's a crock of shit. I suspect LSU would have lost to Georgia on the road, considering LSU's unimpressive road performances against mediocre Kentucky, mediocre Alabama and overrated Tennessee in the SEC title game.

SOS: LSU, WVU, USC -- On paper, LSU played the most winning teams with the best overall win percentage, even though SEC scheduling breaks saved them from a potential loss while Pac-10 and Big East scheduling balance probably cost USC and West Virginia potential wins.

Bowl Win: WVU, USC, LSU -- West Virginia pounded a good Oklahoma team when no one expected them to, and LSU actually trailed Ohio State in their bowl game.

Best Losses: USC, WVU, LSU -- The Trojans lost to a highly-ranked team on the road and only lost by a point in their bad loss, while WVU lost to good team on the road and lost by four points at home in their bad loss. And, as noted above, LSU basically lost TWICE to barely (if that) .500 teams who padded their schedules with pancakes. No team that beat them was truly a good team. FWIW, Oregon -- even without Dennis Dixon -- pounded USF in their bowl game by 35 points. All have bad losses, but USC has the "best" losses overall, contextually. And when you're dealing with two-loss teams, this really matters.

Total that up? WVU (1-2-0), USC (1-1-1), LSU (1-0-2). Not very scientific, but it is telling. Who do I think would have won on the field in a round-robin? USC, easily. We all know what it takes to beat USC in a bowl game, and Vince Young wasn't dressed for LSU in 2007.

That gives me my answer: West Virginia wins the McMNC, because in the end, their SOS was almost as good as LSU's SOS, their bowl win was the best of the TUCs, and their losses weren't as bad as LSU's losses.

McMNC Revisions
1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. USC
4. LSU
5. Hawai'i
6. Georgia
7. Missouri
8. Ohio State

RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993