The big winners in my analysis? Penn State, USC, Washington, Georgia Tech and Tennessee. The Nittany Lions netted three MNCs, while the Trojans, the Huskies, the Yellowjackets and the Vols each netted two MNCs.
Ten schools netted one MNC, while ten schools maintained their MNC totals (albeit some losing one while gaining another). Eight schools lost an MNC from their previous total.
The big losers were Notre Dame, Alabama, Minnesota, Miami-FL, LSU and Army. The Irish lost four MNCs overall, while the Tide and the Gophers each lost three MNCs from their tally. The 'Canes, Tigers and the Cadets each lost two MNCs.
Conference-wise, the breakdown was as follows: current Pac-10 members gained seven MNCs, while current Big Ten members gained three MNCs. Current Big XII members lost two MNCs, while current Big East members gained one MNC. Finally, current ACC members lost three MNCs, while current SEC members also lost two MNCs. Non-BCS schools gained an MNC. Of course, I am sure someone will scream, "Pac-10 Bias!", failing to realize the inherent East Coast media bias that already existed in the AP poll since its creation.
Overall, the teams with the most McMNCS, period, were USC (7), Oklahoma (6), Penn State (5), Tennessee (4), Nebraska (4), Ohio State (4), Notre Dame (4), Alabama (3), Pittsburgh (3) and Miami-FL (3). You know, the usual suspects. Other teams with multiple McMNCs (two, in this case) were Washington, Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Texas. Nineteen schools won a single McMNC apiece.
Overall, there wasn't a lot of dramatic shifting of titles here. Notre Dame and Alabama got the worst of it, and I suspect it's probably because a lot of voters merely saw the grandeur in certain years and ignored some straight-forward facts. Of course, I know this is a matter of opinion, but without "markee valyoo", you just have some numbers on a piece of paper -- and the Irish and Tide suffered for that legendary status in my analysis, while another legend (Joe Paterno) demonstrated he's quite underrated in his time.
Schools that were stripped of MNCs they probably never should have won in the first place? TCU, Maryland, Clemson and Colorado. Yes, I'm leaving Army off this "stripped" list, for reasons explained previously: it's not disrespect, but it is more realistic. Did you know, for example, that a keystone of the 1944-46 Army teams -- Doc Blanchard -- was drafted after his first year at North Carolina and sent to West Point to play football? Also, players who had used up their eligibility at other schools could still play for the military academies/bases. That just isn't right or fair when determining an MNC for the war years.
More to come ...
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Monday, August 25, 2008
2007 McMNC: West Virginia Mountaineers
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. LSU: 12-2 -- W, BCS, 38-24
2. Georgia: 11-2 -- W, Sugar, 41-10
3. USC: 11-2 -- W, Rose, 49-17
4. Missouri: 12-2 -- W, Cotton, 38-7
5. Ohio State: 11-2 -- L, BCS, 24-38
6. West Virginia: 11-2 -- W, Fiesta, 48-28
7. Kansas: 12-1 -- W, Orange, 24-21
8. Oklahoma: 11-3 -- L, Fiesta, 28-48
9. Virginia Tech: 11-3 -- L, Orange, 21-24
10. Texas 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 52-34
There's a part of me that wants to go back and change the rules. I don't see how a BCS team can go 12-1 with its only loss being by single digits to the #4 team in the country and NOT be ranked #1, regardless of SOS issues. Kansas really should have been in the BCS title game instead of LSU, and it mystifies me how the BCS continues to justify its existence by simply pandering itself to certain influential whims (2004 Texas, for example, not to mention 2006 Florida and 2007 LSU).
But it's been my rule all along that no team which doesn't win its conference can be named the McMNC. If this were a tournament selection analysis, then Kansas would be in that tournament, of course -- with a chance to prove it on the field. But it's not. I've tried to isolate one team, each year, with the best credentials regardless of popularity contests and power brokering.
But it is a shame: Kansas was the best team in college football in 2007 by most of my usual standards, but because they lost their last regular season game by eight points to #4 Missouri, they have no chance at the McMNC.
Which really leaves us with just three teams which won their conference, won their bowl game and finished with two or fewer losses: LSU, USC, and West Virginia. Each has serious flaws, and each has serious strengths. Choosing one of them is the proverbial challenge of splitting hairs -- just as "choosing" LSU to face Ohio State in the BCS title game was the same proverbial challenge.
Each team is a two-loss BCS conference champion which won its bowl game. The best bowl win of the bunch? Probably West Virginia's win over Oklahoma, for it was a surprise AND a blowout. Everyone pretty much expected LSU and USC to win their bowl games the way they did, so the Mountaineers get a distinct edge here.
Worst loss? This is tough one. Is it West Virginia's choke job at home against Pitt? Is it USC's home loss to The Fraudulent Farm (stanfordsucks)? Is it LSU's home loss to Arkansas where the Tigers gave up 50 points? All of those are pretty bad losses, in truth. No McMNC should be losing to a poor team at home, and no McMNC should be giving up 50 points in a game, no matter how many OTs occur.
So that's a wash. As noted, each team has serious flaws, and I don't think any of them are forgivable.
So on to the positive column!
LSU beat a lot of good teams: they shutout 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC opponents: UAB, Garder-Webb and Tulane which went a combined 11-24 -- making MSU a .500 team against real competition) on the road by 45 points, they beat ACC champion Virginia Tech by 41 points at home, they beat 9-4 Florida (OOC opponents: Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Western Kentucky, Troy) at home by four points, they beat 9-4 Auburn (OOC opponents: New Mexico State, South Florida, Kansas State and Tennessee Tech) at home by six points, they beat 7-6 Alabama (OOC opponents: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, and Louisiana-Monroe which went a combined 22-27 -- making 'Bama a sub-.500 team against real competition) on the road by seven points, they beat 10-4 Tennessee in the SEC title game by seven points, and they beat Big Ten champion Ohio State by 14 points in the BCS title game. It's an interesting season for the Tigers, though: the first two games were probably the best games they played all year, and in truth, both are irrelevant. Why? Because almost 25 minutes into the MSU game, it was only 3-0. And the Hokie game? Basically, you can throw that out due to the immense emotional challenge the Virginia Tech squad faced after the campus massacre in Spring 2007. Sure, LSU squeaked through four tough SEC games by single digits, but they also lost two of them (albeit in OT). Sure, they beat Ohio State, but they didn't beat them like Florida beat them in 2006. Very little about LSU's season was impressive to the point you'd say, "Wow!" Their SOS rating (58%) was very good, but playing Middle Tennessee State, Tulane and Louisiana Tech for OOC opponents is typical SEC junk (see above). When every team in the conference builds its OOC schedule this way, it does make the SOS rating a little hollow -- which surprises me that the mediots haven't figured this out yet as they scramble to anoint a new SEC "power" every season. Finally, LSU didn't even have to play the second-best team in the SEC: Georgia. The Bulldogs finished #2 in the AP poll, but they never faced the Tigers -- who is to say that LSU was *really* the SEC champion? This harkens back to all the unbalanced scheduling the SEC had problems with in years past. No one is going to argue that Tennessee was the second-best SEC team, are they? The Vols lost to 7-6 Cal, lost by 39 at Florida and lost by 24 at Alabama. They may have been the worst 10-win team ever. LSU may have a nice SOS on paper, but in reality, their weak wins over SEC teams who also scheduled OOC pansies is telling. And with two losses over 8-5 SEC also-rans Kentucky (OOC slate including Eastern Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Kent State) and Arkansas (Troy, North Texas, Tennessee-Chattanooga, Florida International), LSU basically lost to two teams that were under at or under .500 against real BCS competition in 2007. So they have their highs and lows -- and a lot of talent, as no one can deny. But that doesn't mean they were the "best" team. Transitive score fun? LSU beat MSU 45-0 on the road; West Virginia beat MSU 38-13 at home.
USC scheduled Nebraska (on the road) and Notre Dame (on the road) as their OOC opponents, although Idaho is also thrown into the fray (which was a favor the Trokans gave to a former assistant, IIRC). That still gives the Trojans a better OOC quality than LSU, however, even though the Huskers and the Irish were a combined 8-16 in 2007 -- at least USC *tried* to schedule good BCS teams. Regardless, the Trojans didn't play as tough as schedule as the Tigers on paper: they beat 9-4 Oregon State (OOC: Utah, Cincinnati, and Idaho State, which went a combined 22-15) at home by 21 points, they beat 7-6 California on the road by seven points, they beat 10-3 Arizona State on the road by 20 points, and they beat 9-4 Illinois in the Rose Bowl by 32 points. Their 47% SOS rating is downright average at best, and USC didn't beat a winning team until November 3. They lost at home to 4-8 Stanford by a point in a game they never should have lost, of course, and they lost to then-#2 9-4 Oregon (with Dennis Dixon) on the road by seven points. Considering Dixon was still healthy and clicking that day, the loss isn't a bad one. But the loss to The Cardinal is pretty bad. Transitive score fun? Illinois beat Ohio State on the road by seven points, and LSU beat Ohio State at home by 14 points. USC beat Illinois at home by 32 points.
West Virginia could have put this all to rest by simply beating Pittsburgh in their last regular season game. But we know they choked. Do they even get a second chance? Of course! This is Division I-A college football, where everyone gets a second (or third?) chance despite the fact the regular season *is* a tournament! The Mountaineers' other loss was on the road to 9-4 South Florida by eight points. Not a great loss, but a respectable one. Just for comparative terms? USF's OOC opponents included Elon, North Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Central Florida. Not exactly stellar, but it still keeps the Bulls above .500 on the year -- which is more than Kentucky and Arkansas can say for their OOC boosts. The Mountaineers (55% SOS rating) did beat 8-5 East Carolina (OOC: Virginia Tech, UNC, West Virginia and N.C. State) by 41 points at home, 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC: see above) by 25 points at home, 8-5 Rutgers (OOC: SUNY-Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State) by 28 points on the road, 10-3 Cincinnati (OOC: Oregon State, Miami-FL and some creampuffs) by five points on the road, 9-4 Connecticut (OOC: Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron) by 45 points at home, and 11-3 Oklahoma (North Texas, Utah State, Miami-FL and Tulsa) by 20 points in the Fiesta Bowl.
West Virginia beat six winning teams on the season, while LSU beat seven winning teams and USC beat four winning teams. The Mountaineers had the best bowl win, while LSU had the best schedule strength (sort of; this OOC issue is just ugly for the SEC). West Virginia had the worst loss, while LSU had big wins over two Top 10 teams (SOS, again, spoken differently).
LSU dodged a bullet with the unbalanced scheduling of the SEC, avoiding its best potential conference foe. USC and West Virginia? Had to play every team in their conferences. All teams lost twice in conference play, but LSU avoided 11-2 Georgia and 5-7 Vanderbilt in the SEC. If USC and West Virginia could avoid similar teams in their conference play, perhaps the Trojans would have skipped games against 9-4 Oregon and 4-8 Stanford -- instead scheduling San Diego State and Pacific as OOC patsies. Perhaps the Mountaineers would have skipped games against 9-4 South Florida and 5-7 Pittsburgh -- instead scheduling OOC patsies Temple and The Citadel. LSU may have won the SEC, but they did so without having to face its next-best team -- and that's a crock of shit. I suspect LSU would have lost to Georgia on the road, considering LSU's unimpressive road performances against mediocre Kentucky, mediocre Alabama and overrated Tennessee in the SEC title game.
SOS: LSU, WVU, USC -- On paper, LSU played the most winning teams with the best overall win percentage, even though SEC scheduling breaks saved them from a potential loss while Pac-10 and Big East scheduling balance probably cost USC and West Virginia potential wins.
Bowl Win: WVU, USC, LSU -- West Virginia pounded a good Oklahoma team when no one expected them to, and LSU actually trailed Ohio State in their bowl game.
Best Losses: USC, WVU, LSU -- The Trojans lost to a highly-ranked team on the road and only lost by a point in their bad loss, while WVU lost to good team on the road and lost by four points at home in their bad loss. And, as noted above, LSU basically lost TWICE to barely (if that) .500 teams who padded their schedules with pancakes. No team that beat them was truly a good team. FWIW, Oregon -- even without Dennis Dixon -- pounded USF in their bowl game by 35 points. All have bad losses, but USC has the "best" losses overall, contextually. And when you're dealing with two-loss teams, this really matters.
Total that up? WVU (1-2-0), USC (1-1-1), LSU (1-0-2). Not very scientific, but it is telling. Who do I think would have won on the field in a round-robin? USC, easily. We all know what it takes to beat USC in a bowl game, and Vince Young wasn't dressed for LSU in 2007.
That gives me my answer: West Virginia wins the McMNC, because in the end, their SOS was almost as good as LSU's SOS, their bowl win was the best of the TUCs, and their losses weren't as bad as LSU's losses.
McMNC Revisions
1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. USC
4. LSU
5. Hawai'i
6. Georgia
7. Missouri
8. Ohio State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. LSU: 12-2 -- W, BCS, 38-24
2. Georgia: 11-2 -- W, Sugar, 41-10
3. USC: 11-2 -- W, Rose, 49-17
4. Missouri: 12-2 -- W, Cotton, 38-7
5. Ohio State: 11-2 -- L, BCS, 24-38
6. West Virginia: 11-2 -- W, Fiesta, 48-28
7. Kansas: 12-1 -- W, Orange, 24-21
8. Oklahoma: 11-3 -- L, Fiesta, 28-48
9. Virginia Tech: 11-3 -- L, Orange, 21-24
10. Texas 10-3 -- W, Holiday, 52-34
There's a part of me that wants to go back and change the rules. I don't see how a BCS team can go 12-1 with its only loss being by single digits to the #4 team in the country and NOT be ranked #1, regardless of SOS issues. Kansas really should have been in the BCS title game instead of LSU, and it mystifies me how the BCS continues to justify its existence by simply pandering itself to certain influential whims (2004 Texas, for example, not to mention 2006 Florida and 2007 LSU).
But it's been my rule all along that no team which doesn't win its conference can be named the McMNC. If this were a tournament selection analysis, then Kansas would be in that tournament, of course -- with a chance to prove it on the field. But it's not. I've tried to isolate one team, each year, with the best credentials regardless of popularity contests and power brokering.
But it is a shame: Kansas was the best team in college football in 2007 by most of my usual standards, but because they lost their last regular season game by eight points to #4 Missouri, they have no chance at the McMNC.
Which really leaves us with just three teams which won their conference, won their bowl game and finished with two or fewer losses: LSU, USC, and West Virginia. Each has serious flaws, and each has serious strengths. Choosing one of them is the proverbial challenge of splitting hairs -- just as "choosing" LSU to face Ohio State in the BCS title game was the same proverbial challenge.
Each team is a two-loss BCS conference champion which won its bowl game. The best bowl win of the bunch? Probably West Virginia's win over Oklahoma, for it was a surprise AND a blowout. Everyone pretty much expected LSU and USC to win their bowl games the way they did, so the Mountaineers get a distinct edge here.
Worst loss? This is tough one. Is it West Virginia's choke job at home against Pitt? Is it USC's home loss to The Fraudulent Farm (stanfordsucks)? Is it LSU's home loss to Arkansas where the Tigers gave up 50 points? All of those are pretty bad losses, in truth. No McMNC should be losing to a poor team at home, and no McMNC should be giving up 50 points in a game, no matter how many OTs occur.
So that's a wash. As noted, each team has serious flaws, and I don't think any of them are forgivable.
So on to the positive column!
LSU beat a lot of good teams: they shutout 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC opponents: UAB, Garder-Webb and Tulane which went a combined 11-24 -- making MSU a .500 team against real competition) on the road by 45 points, they beat ACC champion Virginia Tech by 41 points at home, they beat 9-4 Florida (OOC opponents: Florida Atlantic, Florida State, Western Kentucky, Troy) at home by four points, they beat 9-4 Auburn (OOC opponents: New Mexico State, South Florida, Kansas State and Tennessee Tech) at home by six points, they beat 7-6 Alabama (OOC opponents: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, and Louisiana-Monroe which went a combined 22-27 -- making 'Bama a sub-.500 team against real competition) on the road by seven points, they beat 10-4 Tennessee in the SEC title game by seven points, and they beat Big Ten champion Ohio State by 14 points in the BCS title game. It's an interesting season for the Tigers, though: the first two games were probably the best games they played all year, and in truth, both are irrelevant. Why? Because almost 25 minutes into the MSU game, it was only 3-0. And the Hokie game? Basically, you can throw that out due to the immense emotional challenge the Virginia Tech squad faced after the campus massacre in Spring 2007. Sure, LSU squeaked through four tough SEC games by single digits, but they also lost two of them (albeit in OT). Sure, they beat Ohio State, but they didn't beat them like Florida beat them in 2006. Very little about LSU's season was impressive to the point you'd say, "Wow!" Their SOS rating (58%) was very good, but playing Middle Tennessee State, Tulane and Louisiana Tech for OOC opponents is typical SEC junk (see above). When every team in the conference builds its OOC schedule this way, it does make the SOS rating a little hollow -- which surprises me that the mediots haven't figured this out yet as they scramble to anoint a new SEC "power" every season. Finally, LSU didn't even have to play the second-best team in the SEC: Georgia. The Bulldogs finished #2 in the AP poll, but they never faced the Tigers -- who is to say that LSU was *really* the SEC champion? This harkens back to all the unbalanced scheduling the SEC had problems with in years past. No one is going to argue that Tennessee was the second-best SEC team, are they? The Vols lost to 7-6 Cal, lost by 39 at Florida and lost by 24 at Alabama. They may have been the worst 10-win team ever. LSU may have a nice SOS on paper, but in reality, their weak wins over SEC teams who also scheduled OOC pansies is telling. And with two losses over 8-5 SEC also-rans Kentucky (OOC slate including Eastern Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Kent State) and Arkansas (Troy, North Texas, Tennessee-Chattanooga, Florida International), LSU basically lost to two teams that were under at or under .500 against real BCS competition in 2007. So they have their highs and lows -- and a lot of talent, as no one can deny. But that doesn't mean they were the "best" team. Transitive score fun? LSU beat MSU 45-0 on the road; West Virginia beat MSU 38-13 at home.
USC scheduled Nebraska (on the road) and Notre Dame (on the road) as their OOC opponents, although Idaho is also thrown into the fray (which was a favor the Trokans gave to a former assistant, IIRC). That still gives the Trojans a better OOC quality than LSU, however, even though the Huskers and the Irish were a combined 8-16 in 2007 -- at least USC *tried* to schedule good BCS teams. Regardless, the Trojans didn't play as tough as schedule as the Tigers on paper: they beat 9-4 Oregon State (OOC: Utah, Cincinnati, and Idaho State, which went a combined 22-15) at home by 21 points, they beat 7-6 California on the road by seven points, they beat 10-3 Arizona State on the road by 20 points, and they beat 9-4 Illinois in the Rose Bowl by 32 points. Their 47% SOS rating is downright average at best, and USC didn't beat a winning team until November 3. They lost at home to 4-8 Stanford by a point in a game they never should have lost, of course, and they lost to then-#2 9-4 Oregon (with Dennis Dixon) on the road by seven points. Considering Dixon was still healthy and clicking that day, the loss isn't a bad one. But the loss to The Cardinal is pretty bad. Transitive score fun? Illinois beat Ohio State on the road by seven points, and LSU beat Ohio State at home by 14 points. USC beat Illinois at home by 32 points.
West Virginia could have put this all to rest by simply beating Pittsburgh in their last regular season game. But we know they choked. Do they even get a second chance? Of course! This is Division I-A college football, where everyone gets a second (or third?) chance despite the fact the regular season *is* a tournament! The Mountaineers' other loss was on the road to 9-4 South Florida by eight points. Not a great loss, but a respectable one. Just for comparative terms? USF's OOC opponents included Elon, North Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Central Florida. Not exactly stellar, but it still keeps the Bulls above .500 on the year -- which is more than Kentucky and Arkansas can say for their OOC boosts. The Mountaineers (55% SOS rating) did beat 8-5 East Carolina (OOC: Virginia Tech, UNC, West Virginia and N.C. State) by 41 points at home, 8-5 Mississippi State (OOC: see above) by 25 points at home, 8-5 Rutgers (OOC: SUNY-Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State) by 28 points on the road, 10-3 Cincinnati (OOC: Oregon State, Miami-FL and some creampuffs) by five points on the road, 9-4 Connecticut (OOC: Duke, Maine, Temple, Akron) by 45 points at home, and 11-3 Oklahoma (North Texas, Utah State, Miami-FL and Tulsa) by 20 points in the Fiesta Bowl.
West Virginia beat six winning teams on the season, while LSU beat seven winning teams and USC beat four winning teams. The Mountaineers had the best bowl win, while LSU had the best schedule strength (sort of; this OOC issue is just ugly for the SEC). West Virginia had the worst loss, while LSU had big wins over two Top 10 teams (SOS, again, spoken differently).
LSU dodged a bullet with the unbalanced scheduling of the SEC, avoiding its best potential conference foe. USC and West Virginia? Had to play every team in their conferences. All teams lost twice in conference play, but LSU avoided 11-2 Georgia and 5-7 Vanderbilt in the SEC. If USC and West Virginia could avoid similar teams in their conference play, perhaps the Trojans would have skipped games against 9-4 Oregon and 4-8 Stanford -- instead scheduling San Diego State and Pacific as OOC patsies. Perhaps the Mountaineers would have skipped games against 9-4 South Florida and 5-7 Pittsburgh -- instead scheduling OOC patsies Temple and The Citadel. LSU may have won the SEC, but they did so without having to face its next-best team -- and that's a crock of shit. I suspect LSU would have lost to Georgia on the road, considering LSU's unimpressive road performances against mediocre Kentucky, mediocre Alabama and overrated Tennessee in the SEC title game.
SOS: LSU, WVU, USC -- On paper, LSU played the most winning teams with the best overall win percentage, even though SEC scheduling breaks saved them from a potential loss while Pac-10 and Big East scheduling balance probably cost USC and West Virginia potential wins.
Bowl Win: WVU, USC, LSU -- West Virginia pounded a good Oklahoma team when no one expected them to, and LSU actually trailed Ohio State in their bowl game.
Best Losses: USC, WVU, LSU -- The Trojans lost to a highly-ranked team on the road and only lost by a point in their bad loss, while WVU lost to good team on the road and lost by four points at home in their bad loss. And, as noted above, LSU basically lost TWICE to barely (if that) .500 teams who padded their schedules with pancakes. No team that beat them was truly a good team. FWIW, Oregon -- even without Dennis Dixon -- pounded USF in their bowl game by 35 points. All have bad losses, but USC has the "best" losses overall, contextually. And when you're dealing with two-loss teams, this really matters.
Total that up? WVU (1-2-0), USC (1-1-1), LSU (1-0-2). Not very scientific, but it is telling. Who do I think would have won on the field in a round-robin? USC, easily. We all know what it takes to beat USC in a bowl game, and Vince Young wasn't dressed for LSU in 2007.
That gives me my answer: West Virginia wins the McMNC, because in the end, their SOS was almost as good as LSU's SOS, their bowl win was the best of the TUCs, and their losses weren't as bad as LSU's losses.
McMNC Revisions
1. West Virginia
2. Kansas
3. USC
4. LSU
5. Hawai'i
6. Georgia
7. Missouri
8. Ohio State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
West Virginia: +2007
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
LSU: =1958, -2003, -2007
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Saturday, August 23, 2008
2006 McMNC: Boise State Broncos
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Florida: 13-1-0 -- W, BCS, 41-14
2. Ohio State: 12-1-0 -- L, BCS, 14-41
3. LSU: 11-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 41-14
4. USC: 11-2-0 -- W, Rose, 32-18
5. Boise State: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 43-42
6. Louisville: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-13
7. Wisconsin: 12-1-0 -- W, Capital One, 17-14
8. Michigan: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 18-32
9. Auburn: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
10. West Virginia: 11-2-0 -- W, Gator, 38-35
Side note: six of the Top 10 teams were from the Big Ten and the SEC. Hmmmm. Makes you wonder why the other four conferences don't want a playoff, eh?
What a mess this was for the BCS. Considering the debates that raged on between Michigan and Florida for the #2 slot in the title game -- while neglecting title-worthy Louisville and Boise State -- just created another BCS clusterfuck.
TUCs are Florida, Boise State and Louisville -- as Wisconsin didn't win the Big Ten, and Ohio State lost its bowl game.
Louisville: With a 57% SOS rating, the Cardinals do belong in this discussion. Their one loss was on the road by three points to AP #12 Rutgers (11-2), and Louisville had wins over unranked 8-5 Kentucky by 31 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Miami-FL by 24 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Kansas State by 18 points on the road, over unranked 8-5 Cincinnati at home by six points, over #10 West Virginia by ten points at home, over unranked 9-4 South Florida by 23 points at home, and over AP #18 Wake Forest (11-3) by 11 points in the Orange Bowl. While they only had two wins over ranked teams, their SOS stands up to scrutiny (see below).
Boise State: Their 50% SOS rating is average, of course, but they didn't lose to anyone, either. They beat AP #21 Oregon State (10-4) by 28 points at home, they beat USA #24 Hawaii (11-3) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 Utah by 33 points on the road, they beat unranked 9-4 San Jose State on the road by three points, they beat unranked 8-5 Nevada on the road by 31 points, and they beat AP #11 Oklahoma (11-3) by a point in the Fiesta Bowl. Beating three ranked teams -- two from power conferences -- solidifies their legitimacy and completes that multi-year journey from small conference also-ran to big-time MNC contender.
Florida: They had an outstanding 61% SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to #9 Auburn by ten points. They beat unranked 9-5 Southern Mississippi by 27 points, they beat AP #25 Tennessee (9-4) by one point on the road, they beat unranked 8-5 Kentucky at home by 19 points, they beat #3 LSU at home by 13 points, they beat AP #23 Georgia (9-4) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 South Carolina by one point at home, they beat unranked 7-6 Florida State by seven points on the road, they beat AP #15 Arkansas (10-4) in the SEC title game by ten points, and they beat #2 Ohio State by 27 points in the BCS title game. They beat nine winning teams in 2006, which is pretty amazing.
But Florida did lose a game (by double digits, no less), as did Louisville. Boise State did not.
Now, in the past, a double-digit edge in SOS rating was qualified as enough to overcome a loss in my McMNC analysis if the team with the better W/L record was deemed inferior enough. Without reviewing all my posts, however, I have no idea if an undefeated team with a 50% SOS rating was ever ousted from its McMNC perch by a team with a loss.
First, we have to eliminate one of the one-loss teams. Florida has the SOS edge on Louisville, but the Cardinals have a better loss -- leaving the Gators still slightly ahead. Common opponents? Both teams beat Kentucky: Florida by 19 points at home, Louisville by 31 points at home. Distinct edge, Louisville.
I don't see much difference between Louisville and Florida on paper, in fact. The Gators' OOC slate? Typical SEC modern fare: three directionals (Central Florida and Western Carolina were the other two) and Florida State, for a composite 22-28 record. Louisville's OOC foes? Kentucky, Temple, Miami-FL, Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State (30-34 overall combined). Neither was impressive, but Louisville scheduled more BCS teams on their OOC.
We'll get back to this (if we need to?).
Is Boise State's status as the only unbeaten approachable? One key factor was the Broncos' win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners were 11-2 and the Big XII champions coming into this game. In reality, they should have been 12-1 and in the discussion with Florida for the BCS title game slot. Remember the Oregon game where the officials screwed up so thoroughly and cost the Sooners a win (http://youtube.com/watch?v=IGgd12VzLWA)? The Sooners' only real loss was an 18-point beating by AP #13 Texas (10-3). Basically, Oklahoma was good enough to take Florida's spot in the BCS title game if officials hadn't screwed them up. This is akin to Colorado's Fifth Down nonsense in 1990, basically. The Sooners should have been 12-1 and a BCS title game contender in 2006.
And Boise State beat them.
What this shows is that the Broncos could hang with the best of the BCS teams in 2006. There was little separating Florida, Louisville, Michigan (59% SOS) and Oklahoma (54% SOS) on paper at the end of the regular season. Florida was chosen to face #1 Ohio State mostly because people didn't want a rematch of Michigan-Ohio State and the trendy SEC love affair currently in vogue, but it easily could have been one of the other three teams above (assuming the officials had done their job correctly in Eugene).
And it should have been Boise State, in fact, chosen to face the Buckeyes.
Just because the BCS screwed up does not mean the debate between Florida and Louisville is irrelevant, but Boise State was good enough to claim the McMNC with its undefeated season, its SOS, and most importantly, its win over Big XII champion and BCS title game-worthy Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
McMNC Revisions
1. Boise State
2. Florida
3. Louisville
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
LSU: =1958, -2003
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Florida: 13-1-0 -- W, BCS, 41-14
2. Ohio State: 12-1-0 -- L, BCS, 14-41
3. LSU: 11-2-0 -- W, Sugar, 41-14
4. USC: 11-2-0 -- W, Rose, 32-18
5. Boise State: 13-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 43-42
6. Louisville: 12-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-13
7. Wisconsin: 12-1-0 -- W, Capital One, 17-14
8. Michigan: 11-2-0 -- L, Rose, 18-32
9. Auburn: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 17-14
10. West Virginia: 11-2-0 -- W, Gator, 38-35
Side note: six of the Top 10 teams were from the Big Ten and the SEC. Hmmmm. Makes you wonder why the other four conferences don't want a playoff, eh?
What a mess this was for the BCS. Considering the debates that raged on between Michigan and Florida for the #2 slot in the title game -- while neglecting title-worthy Louisville and Boise State -- just created another BCS clusterfuck.
TUCs are Florida, Boise State and Louisville -- as Wisconsin didn't win the Big Ten, and Ohio State lost its bowl game.
Louisville: With a 57% SOS rating, the Cardinals do belong in this discussion. Their one loss was on the road by three points to AP #12 Rutgers (11-2), and Louisville had wins over unranked 8-5 Kentucky by 31 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Miami-FL by 24 points at home, over unranked 7-6 Kansas State by 18 points on the road, over unranked 8-5 Cincinnati at home by six points, over #10 West Virginia by ten points at home, over unranked 9-4 South Florida by 23 points at home, and over AP #18 Wake Forest (11-3) by 11 points in the Orange Bowl. While they only had two wins over ranked teams, their SOS stands up to scrutiny (see below).
Boise State: Their 50% SOS rating is average, of course, but they didn't lose to anyone, either. They beat AP #21 Oregon State (10-4) by 28 points at home, they beat USA #24 Hawaii (11-3) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 Utah by 33 points on the road, they beat unranked 9-4 San Jose State on the road by three points, they beat unranked 8-5 Nevada on the road by 31 points, and they beat AP #11 Oklahoma (11-3) by a point in the Fiesta Bowl. Beating three ranked teams -- two from power conferences -- solidifies their legitimacy and completes that multi-year journey from small conference also-ran to big-time MNC contender.
Florida: They had an outstanding 61% SOS rating. Their one loss? On the road to #9 Auburn by ten points. They beat unranked 9-5 Southern Mississippi by 27 points, they beat AP #25 Tennessee (9-4) by one point on the road, they beat unranked 8-5 Kentucky at home by 19 points, they beat #3 LSU at home by 13 points, they beat AP #23 Georgia (9-4) by seven points at home, they beat unranked 8-5 South Carolina by one point at home, they beat unranked 7-6 Florida State by seven points on the road, they beat AP #15 Arkansas (10-4) in the SEC title game by ten points, and they beat #2 Ohio State by 27 points in the BCS title game. They beat nine winning teams in 2006, which is pretty amazing.
But Florida did lose a game (by double digits, no less), as did Louisville. Boise State did not.
Now, in the past, a double-digit edge in SOS rating was qualified as enough to overcome a loss in my McMNC analysis if the team with the better W/L record was deemed inferior enough. Without reviewing all my posts, however, I have no idea if an undefeated team with a 50% SOS rating was ever ousted from its McMNC perch by a team with a loss.
First, we have to eliminate one of the one-loss teams. Florida has the SOS edge on Louisville, but the Cardinals have a better loss -- leaving the Gators still slightly ahead. Common opponents? Both teams beat Kentucky: Florida by 19 points at home, Louisville by 31 points at home. Distinct edge, Louisville.
I don't see much difference between Louisville and Florida on paper, in fact. The Gators' OOC slate? Typical SEC modern fare: three directionals (Central Florida and Western Carolina were the other two) and Florida State, for a composite 22-28 record. Louisville's OOC foes? Kentucky, Temple, Miami-FL, Kansas State and Middle Tennessee State (30-34 overall combined). Neither was impressive, but Louisville scheduled more BCS teams on their OOC.
We'll get back to this (if we need to?).
Is Boise State's status as the only unbeaten approachable? One key factor was the Broncos' win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sooners were 11-2 and the Big XII champions coming into this game. In reality, they should have been 12-1 and in the discussion with Florida for the BCS title game slot. Remember the Oregon game where the officials screwed up so thoroughly and cost the Sooners a win (http://youtube.com/watch?v=IGgd12VzLWA)? The Sooners' only real loss was an 18-point beating by AP #13 Texas (10-3). Basically, Oklahoma was good enough to take Florida's spot in the BCS title game if officials hadn't screwed them up. This is akin to Colorado's Fifth Down nonsense in 1990, basically. The Sooners should have been 12-1 and a BCS title game contender in 2006.
And Boise State beat them.
What this shows is that the Broncos could hang with the best of the BCS teams in 2006. There was little separating Florida, Louisville, Michigan (59% SOS) and Oklahoma (54% SOS) on paper at the end of the regular season. Florida was chosen to face #1 Ohio State mostly because people didn't want a rematch of Michigan-Ohio State and the trendy SEC love affair currently in vogue, but it easily could have been one of the other three teams above (assuming the officials had done their job correctly in Eugene).
And it should have been Boise State, in fact, chosen to face the Buckeyes.
Just because the BCS screwed up does not mean the debate between Florida and Louisville is irrelevant, but Boise State was good enough to claim the McMNC with its undefeated season, its SOS, and most importantly, its win over Big XII champion and BCS title game-worthy Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
McMNC Revisions
1. Boise State
2. Florida
3. Louisville
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
Boise State: +2006
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
LSU: =1958, -2003
Florida: =1996, -2006
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Friday, August 22, 2008
2005 McMNC: Texas Longhorns
AP Top 11: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Texas: 13-0-0 -- W, Rose, 41-38
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- L, Rose, 38-41
3. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-21
4. Ohio State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 34-20
5. West Virginia: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 38-35
6. LSU: 11-2-0 -- W, Peach, 40-3
7. Virginia Tech: 11-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-24
8. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 13-10
9. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 20-34
10. Georgia: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 35-38
11. TCU: 11-1-0 -- W, Houston, 27-24
Probably not much to discuss here, as the BCS title game was a fantastic one, of course. TUCs? Texas, Penn State, West Virginia and TCU. Of course, the last three will have to have amazing SOS ratings to overcome the Longhorns.
Penn State: 55% SOS rating, with that loss to unranked 7-5 Michigan's timekeeper on the road by two points. We were THAT close to having three major-conference undefeated teams at the end of the regular season (again).
West Virginia: 53% SOS rating, with a home loss by 17 points to #7 Virginia Tech. Not great.
TCU: 46% SOS rating, with an 11-point road loss to a sub-.500 SMU team. Forget it.
The Longhorns? Their 57% SOS rating puts it all to rest, with wins over #4 Ohio State on the road by three points, AP #22 Oklahoma by 22 points at the neutral site, AP #20 Texas Tech by 35 points at home, and #2 USC by three points in the Rose Bowl. For what it's worth, USC had an SOS rating of 58% in 2005 -- so Texas' title was well-earned.
I don't mean to slight Texas here at all, but there's nothing else to say: they kicked ass, and the fans loved what the BCS gave them: a real champion!
McMNC Revisions
1. Texas
2. USC
3. Penn State
4. West Virginia
5. TCU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Texas: 13-0-0 -- W, Rose, 41-38
2. USC: 12-1-0 -- L, Rose, 38-41
3. Penn State: 11-1-0 -- W, Orange, 24-21
4. Ohio State: 10-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 34-20
5. West Virginia: 11-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 38-35
6. LSU: 11-2-0 -- W, Peach, 40-3
7. Virginia Tech: 11-2-0 -- W, Gator, 35-24
8. Alabama: 10-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 13-10
9. Notre Dame: 9-3-0 -- L, Fiesta, 20-34
10. Georgia: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 35-38
11. TCU: 11-1-0 -- W, Houston, 27-24
Probably not much to discuss here, as the BCS title game was a fantastic one, of course. TUCs? Texas, Penn State, West Virginia and TCU. Of course, the last three will have to have amazing SOS ratings to overcome the Longhorns.
Penn State: 55% SOS rating, with that loss to unranked 7-5 Michigan's timekeeper on the road by two points. We were THAT close to having three major-conference undefeated teams at the end of the regular season (again).
West Virginia: 53% SOS rating, with a home loss by 17 points to #7 Virginia Tech. Not great.
TCU: 46% SOS rating, with an 11-point road loss to a sub-.500 SMU team. Forget it.
The Longhorns? Their 57% SOS rating puts it all to rest, with wins over #4 Ohio State on the road by three points, AP #22 Oklahoma by 22 points at the neutral site, AP #20 Texas Tech by 35 points at home, and #2 USC by three points in the Rose Bowl. For what it's worth, USC had an SOS rating of 58% in 2005 -- so Texas' title was well-earned.
I don't mean to slight Texas here at all, but there's nothing else to say: they kicked ass, and the fans loved what the BCS gave them: a real champion!
McMNC Revisions
1. Texas
2. USC
3. Penn State
4. West Virginia
5. TCU
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969, =2005
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Thursday, August 21, 2008
2004 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. USC: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 55-19
2. Auburn: 13-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 16-13
3. Oklahoma: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 19-55
4. Utah: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-7
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 38-37
6. Louisville: 11-1-0 -- W, Liberty, 44-40
7. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- W, Outback, 24-21
8. Iowa: 10-2-0 -- W, Capital One, 30-25
9. California: 10-2-0 -- L, Holiday, 31-45
10. Virginia Tech: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 13-16
Side note: AP #12 Boise State finished the regular season undefeated (50% SOS) before losing the Liberty Bowl to Louisville. See the progression building?
Texas didn't win its conference, and Oklahoma didn't win its bowl game, so they are both eliminated from McMNC contention. That leaves us with Louisville, Utah, Auburn and USC -- three undefeated teams!
Start with Louisville: with a 47% SOS rating, they can't overcome the one loss. A three-point road setback to AP #11 Miami-FL (9-3) ruined their season, for that was a game the Cardinals should have won. Such as it were, the only ranked team Louisville beat all season was Boise State.
Utah had a wonderful season, but with a 45% SOS rating, they're a longshot. The only ranked team they faced all year was AP #25 Pittsburgh (8-4) in the Fiesta Bowl, and overall, they only played four winning teams all year: three 7-5 teams and Pittsburgh. Weak schedule, although the Utes did dominate their schedule. They go ahead of Louisville, of course, because they're undefeated.
Auburn picked the wrong season to go undefeated. With a 55% SOS rating, they faced a good schedule. They beat AP #16 LSU (9-3) at home by a point, they beat AP #13 Tennessee (10-3) on the road by 24 points, they beat #7 Georgia by 18 points at home, they beat Tennessee again by ten points in the SEC title game, and they beat #10 Virginia Tech by three points in the Sugar Bowl. Five wins over ranked teams makes for a great season, especially when you go undefeated. But the OOC slate? 5-6 Louisiana-Monroe, 3-7 The Citadel, and 6-6 Louisiana Tech. Two of those teams also were on LSU's 2003 OOC schedule. What is the matter with the SEC, anyway?
USC posted a 54% SOS rating, with wins over #10 Virginia Tech by 11 points on the road, #9 California by six points at home, AP #19 Arizona State (9-3) by 38 points at home, and #3 Oklahoma by 36 points in the Orange Bowl. They beat four ranked teams, including three Top 10 teams. The OOC slate? Virginia Tech, 4-7 Colorado State, 5-6 BYU and 6-6 Notre Dame.
Even if you consider the Tigers and the Trojans even right now, there are two separating realities: common opponents and bowl wins. First, both teams played Virginia Tech. USC won by 11 in Blacksburg, and Auburn won by three in the Sugar Bowl. Second, USC absolutely annihilated Oklahoma in a bowl game, while Auburn squeaked by in its bowl win. The Sooners were 12-0 with a 57% SOS rating going into that bowl game, and they got WORKED OVER. This Oklahoma team was better than the 2003 version, which only lost its bowl game by seven points.
With so much on the line for both teams, one clearly performed at a higher level when it mattered most. In fact, in time, history will probably view this USC team as one of the best college football teams of all time. That's good enough for me.
This is no knock against Auburn, at all. But when measured against these Trojans, they don't have a chance.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Auburn
3. Utah
4. Louisville
5. Oklahoma
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. USC: 13-0-0 -- W, Orange, 55-19
2. Auburn: 13-0-0 -- W, Sugar, 16-13
3. Oklahoma: 12-1-0 -- L, Orange, 19-55
4. Utah: 12-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-7
5. Texas: 11-1-0 -- W, Rose, 38-37
6. Louisville: 11-1-0 -- W, Liberty, 44-40
7. Georgia: 10-2-0 -- W, Outback, 24-21
8. Iowa: 10-2-0 -- W, Capital One, 30-25
9. California: 10-2-0 -- L, Holiday, 31-45
10. Virginia Tech: 10-3-0 -- L, Sugar, 13-16
Side note: AP #12 Boise State finished the regular season undefeated (50% SOS) before losing the Liberty Bowl to Louisville. See the progression building?
Texas didn't win its conference, and Oklahoma didn't win its bowl game, so they are both eliminated from McMNC contention. That leaves us with Louisville, Utah, Auburn and USC -- three undefeated teams!
Start with Louisville: with a 47% SOS rating, they can't overcome the one loss. A three-point road setback to AP #11 Miami-FL (9-3) ruined their season, for that was a game the Cardinals should have won. Such as it were, the only ranked team Louisville beat all season was Boise State.
Utah had a wonderful season, but with a 45% SOS rating, they're a longshot. The only ranked team they faced all year was AP #25 Pittsburgh (8-4) in the Fiesta Bowl, and overall, they only played four winning teams all year: three 7-5 teams and Pittsburgh. Weak schedule, although the Utes did dominate their schedule. They go ahead of Louisville, of course, because they're undefeated.
Auburn picked the wrong season to go undefeated. With a 55% SOS rating, they faced a good schedule. They beat AP #16 LSU (9-3) at home by a point, they beat AP #13 Tennessee (10-3) on the road by 24 points, they beat #7 Georgia by 18 points at home, they beat Tennessee again by ten points in the SEC title game, and they beat #10 Virginia Tech by three points in the Sugar Bowl. Five wins over ranked teams makes for a great season, especially when you go undefeated. But the OOC slate? 5-6 Louisiana-Monroe, 3-7 The Citadel, and 6-6 Louisiana Tech. Two of those teams also were on LSU's 2003 OOC schedule. What is the matter with the SEC, anyway?
USC posted a 54% SOS rating, with wins over #10 Virginia Tech by 11 points on the road, #9 California by six points at home, AP #19 Arizona State (9-3) by 38 points at home, and #3 Oklahoma by 36 points in the Orange Bowl. They beat four ranked teams, including three Top 10 teams. The OOC slate? Virginia Tech, 4-7 Colorado State, 5-6 BYU and 6-6 Notre Dame.
Even if you consider the Tigers and the Trojans even right now, there are two separating realities: common opponents and bowl wins. First, both teams played Virginia Tech. USC won by 11 in Blacksburg, and Auburn won by three in the Sugar Bowl. Second, USC absolutely annihilated Oklahoma in a bowl game, while Auburn squeaked by in its bowl win. The Sooners were 12-0 with a 57% SOS rating going into that bowl game, and they got WORKED OVER. This Oklahoma team was better than the 2003 version, which only lost its bowl game by seven points.
With so much on the line for both teams, one clearly performed at a higher level when it mattered most. In fact, in time, history will probably view this USC team as one of the best college football teams of all time. That's good enough for me.
This is no knock against Auburn, at all. But when measured against these Trojans, they don't have a chance.
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. Auburn
3. Utah
4. Louisville
5. Oklahoma
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003, =2004
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
2003 McMNC: USC Trojans
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 28-14
2. LSU: 13-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 21-14
3. Oklahoma: 12-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-21
4. Ohio State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-28
5. Miami-FL: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 16-14
6. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- L, Rose, 14-28
7. Georgia: 11-3-0 -- W, Capital One, 34-27
8. Iowa: 10-3-0 -- W, Outback, 37-17
9. Washington State: 10-3-0 -- W, Holiday, 28-20
10. Miami-OH: 13-1-0 -- W, GMAC, 49-28
Side note: Boise State (46% SOS) finished 13-1 with a 34-31 win in the Ft. Worth Bowl over TCU. This is an improvement from 2002 for the Broncos.
So, the BCS finally exploded from within in a way that everyone agreed with, as #1 USC was left out of the BCS title game, while another team which didn't win its conference got to play for the "championship" in a game everyone knew they would lose. It was an interesting bowl season, however, as the BCS did provide a No. 1 vs. No. 4 in the Rose Bowl and a No. 2 vs. No. 3 in the Sugar Bowl.
Plus-one anyone? Of course not. That would make too much "cents" for the BCS.
So here we are again: six TUCs this year, although some get eliminated immediately. Oklahoma didn't win its conference or its bowl game, for example. Ohio State didn't win its conference, either.
This leaves us with Miami-OH, Miami-FL, LSU and USC.
Before you laugh, consider the Red Hawks' only loss was on the road to #8 Iowa (by 18 points) in the season opener, and their SOS rating was 51% -- better than some previous McMNCs, obviously. They beat AP #23 Bowling Green (11-3) by 23 points in the regular season, and they beat the Falcons again in the MAC title game by 22 points. Overall, they played seven winning teams on the season, including unranked 9-4 Louisville in the bowl game. The SOS would be higher if not for 1-11 SUNY-Buffalo, 2-10 Ohio University and 3-9 Central Florida. And they even played eight games on the road.
The other Miami squad won the Big East with a 54% SOS rating. This isn't enough to overcome their two losses, however: a 24-point road loss at unranked Virginia Tech (8-5) and a four-point home loss to AP #15 Tennessee (10-3). A big loss to an unranked team is never good, but the Hurricanes just don't have the SOS rating to even pass the other Miami. However, the Coker Bunch did have wins over AP #24 Florida and AP #11 Florida State (twice, one on the road in the regular season and once in the Orange Bowl).
Louisiana State won the SEC and posted a 54% SOS rating. Their one loss was to AP #24 Florida (8-5) at home by 12 points. They had wins over #7 Georgia by seven points at home, AP #13 Mississippi (10-3) by three points on the road, #7 Georgia (again) by 21 points in the SEC title game, and #3 Oklahoma by seven points at home in the Sugar Bowl. The SOS would have been higher, but games against 1-11 Louisiana-Monroe, 2-10 Arizona, 2-10 Mississippi State and 4-9 Alabama hurt.
The Trojans won the Pac-10 while posting a 52% SOS rating. Their one loss was on the road to unranked 8-6 California in OT. Otherwise, USC beat #9 Washington State by 27 points at home and #6 Michigan at home in the Rose Bowl by 14 points. They faced three other winning teams and four other teams which finished at .500 or within a game of breaking even. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Arizona.
It is interesting to note that Miami-OH and USC both only beat two ranked teams all season, and the Red Hawks certainly have a decent loss. But USC beat two Top 10 teams, while Miami-OH merely beat #23 twice. For what it's worth, Miami did schedule Iowa, Northwestern (6-7) and Colorado State (7-6) as OOC opponents -- certainly a better effort than LSU's OOC slate of Louisiana-Monroe, Arizona, Western Illinois (9-4) and Louisiana Tech (5-7). The Trojans' OOC gang included Auburn (8-5), BYU (4-8), Hawaii (9-5) and Notre Dame (5-7).
On paper, maybe the Red Hawks can hang with the Tigers and the Trojans, but our eyes tell us otherwise. It was a great season for Miami-OH, but the big loss to Iowa is telling, as the Hawkeyes beat Michigan by three points -- and USC beat the Wolverines by 14 points with everything on the line in the Rose Bowl.
So it's USC versus LSU, and there are some common opponents to consider: Auburn, which lost by 24 on the road to LSU and lost at home by 23 to USC. Advantage? Trojans. Arizona hosted both teams, losing by 46 to LSU and by 45 to USC. Even draw, also considering the Wildcats actually scored against the Tigers (13 points, while the Trojans got the shutout). So USC gets a slight edge on the common opponents.
LSU has the slight edge on the Trojans in SOS rating, but USC has a better loss: losing to a conference foe on the road in three OTs is better than losing at home to a conference foe by double digits. The Tigers did play more ranked teams, but USC had a better OOC schedule -- although Notre Dame and BYU had down years.
Finally, the bowl games: USC beat #4 by 14 points at home in a game that was never close, while LSU beat #3 by seven points at home in a game that went down to the wire. USC definitely had the better bowl win.
Overall, USC gets the distinct edge, but it still would have been a blast to see these two teams fight it out in the field at a neutral site: say Soldier Field in Chicago?
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Miami-OH
4. Miami-FL
5. Ohio State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. USC: 12-1-0 -- W, Rose, 28-14
2. LSU: 13-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 21-14
3. Oklahoma: 12-2-0 -- L, Sugar, 14-21
4. Ohio State: 11-2-0 -- W, Fiesta, 35-28
5. Miami-FL: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 16-14
6. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- L, Rose, 14-28
7. Georgia: 11-3-0 -- W, Capital One, 34-27
8. Iowa: 10-3-0 -- W, Outback, 37-17
9. Washington State: 10-3-0 -- W, Holiday, 28-20
10. Miami-OH: 13-1-0 -- W, GMAC, 49-28
Side note: Boise State (46% SOS) finished 13-1 with a 34-31 win in the Ft. Worth Bowl over TCU. This is an improvement from 2002 for the Broncos.
So, the BCS finally exploded from within in a way that everyone agreed with, as #1 USC was left out of the BCS title game, while another team which didn't win its conference got to play for the "championship" in a game everyone knew they would lose. It was an interesting bowl season, however, as the BCS did provide a No. 1 vs. No. 4 in the Rose Bowl and a No. 2 vs. No. 3 in the Sugar Bowl.
Plus-one anyone? Of course not. That would make too much "cents" for the BCS.
So here we are again: six TUCs this year, although some get eliminated immediately. Oklahoma didn't win its conference or its bowl game, for example. Ohio State didn't win its conference, either.
This leaves us with Miami-OH, Miami-FL, LSU and USC.
Before you laugh, consider the Red Hawks' only loss was on the road to #8 Iowa (by 18 points) in the season opener, and their SOS rating was 51% -- better than some previous McMNCs, obviously. They beat AP #23 Bowling Green (11-3) by 23 points in the regular season, and they beat the Falcons again in the MAC title game by 22 points. Overall, they played seven winning teams on the season, including unranked 9-4 Louisville in the bowl game. The SOS would be higher if not for 1-11 SUNY-Buffalo, 2-10 Ohio University and 3-9 Central Florida. And they even played eight games on the road.
The other Miami squad won the Big East with a 54% SOS rating. This isn't enough to overcome their two losses, however: a 24-point road loss at unranked Virginia Tech (8-5) and a four-point home loss to AP #15 Tennessee (10-3). A big loss to an unranked team is never good, but the Hurricanes just don't have the SOS rating to even pass the other Miami. However, the Coker Bunch did have wins over AP #24 Florida and AP #11 Florida State (twice, one on the road in the regular season and once in the Orange Bowl).
Louisiana State won the SEC and posted a 54% SOS rating. Their one loss was to AP #24 Florida (8-5) at home by 12 points. They had wins over #7 Georgia by seven points at home, AP #13 Mississippi (10-3) by three points on the road, #7 Georgia (again) by 21 points in the SEC title game, and #3 Oklahoma by seven points at home in the Sugar Bowl. The SOS would have been higher, but games against 1-11 Louisiana-Monroe, 2-10 Arizona, 2-10 Mississippi State and 4-9 Alabama hurt.
The Trojans won the Pac-10 while posting a 52% SOS rating. Their one loss was on the road to unranked 8-6 California in OT. Otherwise, USC beat #9 Washington State by 27 points at home and #6 Michigan at home in the Rose Bowl by 14 points. They faced three other winning teams and four other teams which finished at .500 or within a game of breaking even. Their SOS was sunk by 2-10 Arizona.
It is interesting to note that Miami-OH and USC both only beat two ranked teams all season, and the Red Hawks certainly have a decent loss. But USC beat two Top 10 teams, while Miami-OH merely beat #23 twice. For what it's worth, Miami did schedule Iowa, Northwestern (6-7) and Colorado State (7-6) as OOC opponents -- certainly a better effort than LSU's OOC slate of Louisiana-Monroe, Arizona, Western Illinois (9-4) and Louisiana Tech (5-7). The Trojans' OOC gang included Auburn (8-5), BYU (4-8), Hawaii (9-5) and Notre Dame (5-7).
On paper, maybe the Red Hawks can hang with the Tigers and the Trojans, but our eyes tell us otherwise. It was a great season for Miami-OH, but the big loss to Iowa is telling, as the Hawkeyes beat Michigan by three points -- and USC beat the Wolverines by 14 points with everything on the line in the Rose Bowl.
So it's USC versus LSU, and there are some common opponents to consider: Auburn, which lost by 24 on the road to LSU and lost at home by 23 to USC. Advantage? Trojans. Arizona hosted both teams, losing by 46 to LSU and by 45 to USC. Even draw, also considering the Wildcats actually scored against the Tigers (13 points, while the Trojans got the shutout). So USC gets a slight edge on the common opponents.
LSU has the slight edge on the Trojans in SOS rating, but USC has a better loss: losing to a conference foe on the road in three OTs is better than losing at home to a conference foe by double digits. The Tigers did play more ranked teams, but USC had a better OOC schedule -- although Notre Dame and BYU had down years.
Finally, the bowl games: USC beat #4 by 14 points at home in a game that was never close, while LSU beat #3 by seven points at home in a game that went down to the wire. USC definitely had the better bowl win.
Overall, USC gets the distinct edge, but it still would have been a blast to see these two teams fight it out in the field at a neutral site: say Soldier Field in Chicago?
McMNC Revisions
1. USC
2. LSU
3. Miami-OH
4. Miami-FL
5. Ohio State
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979, =2003
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958, -2003
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
2002 McMNC: Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Top 10: Final Record -- Key Bowl Results
1. Ohio State: 14-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-24
2. Miami-FL: 12-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 24-31
3. Georgia: 13-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 26-13
4. USC: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 38-17
5. Oklahoma: 12-2-0 -- W, Rose, 34-14
6. Texas: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-20
7. Kansas State: 11-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 34-27
8. Iowa: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-38
9. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- W, Outback, 38-30
10. Washington State: 10-3-0 -- L, Rose, 14-34
Side note: Boise State finished 12-1 in 2002 (with a 40% SOS rating), beginning their climb to the 2006 season. They beat 7-7 Iowa State by 18 points in the Humanitarian Bowl. Also, USC finished with a 64% SOS rating, losing two road games to Top 10 teams: by seven to Kansas State and by three to Washington State. They played only one team with a losing record all year (2-9 Stanford), while beating four ranked teams. Two trends budding here, eh?
So it's hard to question the placement of both Miami-FL and Ohio State in the BCS title game. The Hurricanes had a 34-game winning streak and were the defending BCS champions. The Buckeyes were 13-0 and the only other unblemished team in college football.
Is there anything else to consider? Georgia's home loss to AP-unranked 8-5 Florida by seven points (Zook'd!) took the Bulldogs out of contention, and their SOS (58%) wasn't enough to overcome either Miami (59%) or Ohio State (55%).
The BCS basically did work this year, after three years of questionable results.
McMNC Revisions
1. Ohio State
2. Miami-FL
3. Georgia
4. USC
5. Oklahoma
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
1. Ohio State: 14-0-0 -- W, Fiesta, 31-24
2. Miami-FL: 12-1-0 -- L, Fiesta, 24-31
3. Georgia: 13-1-0 -- W, Sugar, 26-13
4. USC: 11-2-0 -- W, Orange, 38-17
5. Oklahoma: 12-2-0 -- W, Rose, 34-14
6. Texas: 11-2-0 -- W, Cotton, 35-20
7. Kansas State: 11-2-0 -- W, Holiday, 34-27
8. Iowa: 11-2-0 -- L, Orange, 17-38
9. Michigan: 10-3-0 -- W, Outback, 38-30
10. Washington State: 10-3-0 -- L, Rose, 14-34
Side note: Boise State finished 12-1 in 2002 (with a 40% SOS rating), beginning their climb to the 2006 season. They beat 7-7 Iowa State by 18 points in the Humanitarian Bowl. Also, USC finished with a 64% SOS rating, losing two road games to Top 10 teams: by seven to Kansas State and by three to Washington State. They played only one team with a losing record all year (2-9 Stanford), while beating four ranked teams. Two trends budding here, eh?
So it's hard to question the placement of both Miami-FL and Ohio State in the BCS title game. The Hurricanes had a 34-game winning streak and were the defending BCS champions. The Buckeyes were 13-0 and the only other unblemished team in college football.
Is there anything else to consider? Georgia's home loss to AP-unranked 8-5 Florida by seven points (Zook'd!) took the Bulldogs out of contention, and their SOS (58%) wasn't enough to overcome either Miami (59%) or Ohio State (55%).
The BCS basically did work this year, after three years of questionable results.
McMNC Revisions
1. Ohio State
2. Miami-FL
3. Georgia
4. USC
5. Oklahoma
RUNNING SCORECARD:
Penn State: +1977, +1981, =1982, =1986, +1994
USC: -1962, =1967, +1969, =1972, +1978, +1979
Tennessee: +1938, +1942, +1950, -1951, =1998
Washington: +1960, +1991
Georgia Tech: +1952, +1990
Pittsburgh: +1936, -1937, =1976, +1980
UCLA: +1965
Arkansas: +1964
Mississippi: +1962
Iowa: +1956
Illinois: +1951
Purdue: +1943
Stanford: +1940
California: +1937
Florida: =1996
BYU: =1984
Syracuse: =1959
LSU: =1958
Texas A&M: =1939
Auburn: -1957, +1983
Georgia: +1946, -1980
Michigan State: -1952, +1953
Michigan: +1947, =1948, -1997
Ohio State: -1942, +1944, =1954, =1968, =2002
Nebraska: =1970, =1971, -1994, =1995, +1997
Oklahoma: +1949, -1950, =1955, -1956, +1957, =1975, =1986, =2000
TCU: -1938
Maryland: -1953
Clemson: -1981
Colorado: -1990
Florida State: -1993, =1999
Texas: =1963, -1969
Army: -1944, -1945
Miami-FL: -1983, =1987, =1989, -1991, =2001
Minnesota: -1936, -1940, =1941, -1960
Alabama: +1945, =1961, -1964, -1965, -1978, -1979, =1992
Notre Dame: -1943, -1946, -1947, -1949, =1966, =1973, -1977, =1988, +1993
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